Just wondering this recently.

I know the answer is almost never, but there must be a point where you are better off folding until the bubble bursts since your stack is so short that you chances of getting back into it are too small to try.

Thoughts?

World Series of Poker Main Event.

And you satty in for nothing and winning 20K. Then I would fold to cash.. Fuck 20K is a car dude.. No problem.

Usually if I have 2bbs and I am like UTG+2 with K4 or something, I will usually push, but if we are on the bubble I will fold. If I have AJ or something though, no folding. I am talking about 180s, might be more worth it to fold to cash in a larger MTT.

If I have less than 5bbs and it is the bubble, I will usually fold to cash. You are going to have to run veeeery well to win the tourney, so might as well atleast get the buy in back some change then shove a weak A and get busted imo

I'm not sure you'll ever get to a point where you can have a formula that says, if you have 2bb, then fold to cash.

I think folding to cash is +EV if the following situation applies

1) You are so short that 2 double ups and you are still in trouble chip wise (double up once and then once again, and still will not have fold equity.

2) Folding guarantees you (or an extremely large percentage of the time) cash.

3) You are likely going to get called by hands you don't want calling you if you push.

If this situation applies, then fold to cash.

For the record, even if it's a huge jump to your personal bankroll, that is not neccessarily +EV. Take the Main Event, folding to cash (and $20k) might be huge to yoru bankroll, but with a top prize of $9 million, it's much more +EV to play to win and to bubble.

the only time i can agree with folding monsters like aa is in satty's when you are sure you will get a seat if you continue to fold. in MTTs i just push my regular range around the bubble not worrying if im in or out of it.

 

Originally Posted by Slowta

the only time i can agree with folding monsters like aa is in satty's when you are sure you will get a seat if you continue to fold. in MTTs i just push my regular range around the bubble not worrying if im in or out of it.

I disagree with this for one big reason.

The play changes so drastically from on the bubble to after it bursts that you MUST know where you are at so that you can read your opponents better.

I am not a min cash guy by any means but last week in the $15K KO on Tilt I lost a big race on the bubble that left me with 3-4 BB on a VERY aggressive table, and I knew that there was no shot I was picking up blinds since they would call with ATC because of the knockout $$.

I was pretty sure I could fold to cash and thats what inspired this post.

 

Originally Posted by jetsjets1028

I disagree with this for one big reason.

The play changes so drastically from on the bubble to after it bursts that you MUST know where you are at so that you can read your opponents better.

I am not a min cash guy by any means but last week in the $15K KO on Tilt I lost a big race on the bubble that left me with 3-4 BB on a VERY aggressive table, and I knew that there was no shot I was picking up blinds since they would call with ATC because of the knockout $$.

I was pretty sure I could fold to cash and thats what inspired this post.

I'd actually love to see someone figuire out the math on this. With 3-4bbs in ko tourney, you are getting called 100% of the time if you shove. If you double up, you've still only got 8-10 bbs. Double up again and you've got 18-22 bbs (im accounting for blinds/antes etc) but presumably the blinds will be going up and you'll be short again and looking to gamble.

Is it profitable to fold to cash, knowing you can do so almost 100% of the time or atleast tighten our range drastically, to give ourselves the best chance to cash. Given the shitty pay out structures of most online tourneys, where fts/top 3 are the only reasonable cash in any tourney what % of the time can we expect to actually make a deep run in a tourney when we have such a short stack and what is our overall equity as opposed to just ensuring a cash say 95% of the time?

just to clarify, when I say fold to cash i dont mean fold 100%, i mean folding any hand that I dont WANT to be called

im still insta shipping/calling AQ+, JJ+ or something like that

Riverkiller has my question perfectly. If someone could run the math on the scenario he presented at the bottom of page 1 that would be awesome.

Thx!!

 

Originally Posted by jetsjets1028

just to clarify, when I say fold to cash i dont mean fold 100%, i mean folding any hand that I dont WANT to be called

im still insta shipping/calling AQ+, JJ+ or something like that

Riverkiller has my question perfectly. If someone could run the math on the scenario he presented at the bottom of page 1 that would be awesome.

Thx!!

I don't understand...of course you are going to fold every hand you don't want to be called. It would be insane to push with tiny stack with cards you don't want called in ANY circumstance bubble or not. Why would you ever push with a weak holding in a situation where the big blind calls with any two? You answered your own question, you fold until you are forced into action (big blind hits you or antes are too big), unless you have a hand and position that is ahead of range.

Its def +EV to fold to cash in some spots, and a lot of people probably make a lot of mistakes in that regard (myself included) thinking they are "playing to win."

Timex had a few excellent posts on this, I don't know if here or on the other forum

 

Originally Posted by coolhandkev

I don't understand...of course you are going to fold every hand you don't want to be called. It would be insane to push with tiny stack with cards you don't want called in ANY circumstance bubble or not. Why would you ever push with a weak holding in a situation where the big blind calls with any two? You answered your own question, you fold until you are forced into action (big blind hits you or antes are too big), unless you have a hand and position that is ahead of range.

I'm hoping that I'm misunderstanding you but if you are saying that you should always fold when you dont want a call then you are missing out on value.

Yes, if someone is always gonna call then you fold when you think you are behind, but with something like 7-8 BB it is sometimes worth shoving anyway since you need to chip up.

 

Originally Posted by gray31

not rly, he was asking about situations when rly short-stacked, no matter what ur roll is if u got like 1-2 BBs on the absolute bubble u should prolly just be folding to cash in terms of icm

 

Originally Posted by AFink93

World Series of Poker Main Event.

And you satty in for nothing and winning 20K. Then I would fold to cash.. Fuck 20K is a car dude.. No problem.

How ridiculous was the WSOP bubble coverage on tv? Like 5 guys shown folding KK pre, the one guy just open folded AK to Phil Iveys raise preflop.

The guy who bubbled basically sat there getting anted out praying for someone else to bust out.

That must be the most exploitable bubble in poker for a pro

This question is so tough to answer because the answer is gradual.

With 1 chip on the bubble, of course it would be profitable to fold AA and make the money rather than trying to triple up to 3 chips. So the answer can get extreme.

When you have 2BB or less, the correct answer is often to fold to the money rather than shoving it out.

It also depends on the payouts. stars typically has a large payout for it's last spot (1.5-2x buyin) whereas some sites like Cake barely cover the buyin for it's last payout (1.1-1.2x buyin).

I recommend this tool to help you thru these things:

Tournament ICM calculator

It's not perfect, but it's the best I could find.

Hope that helps!