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When nobody makes a good bet.

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  1. Dunce Dunce is offline

    Posts: 1,153
    Joined: Mar 05

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 9:54am)

    Situation: First hand of an online MTT. 1500 starting chips.

    Cards: AA

    Action: Limp, Limp, 425, Fold, Call, All-In, Call (me), Fold, Fold, Fold, Fold, Call, Call, Call. 5 of us to the Flop, so I'm getting 4:1 on Pocket Aces. Sounds good, right?

    Well, maybe. If I'm up against 4 random hands. And, these guys are all donks. And, they've all got each other counterfeited. Then and only then am I 55% to win and getting 4:1.

    In a more realistic scenario they aren't ALL donks ( just one or two of them ) and they don't have each other counterfeited, and my win probability is less than 55%, so 4:1 isn't quite the big price it seems to be at first glance.

    In the actual hand this example is taken from, the Limper who stuck around had T 2 suited, the Raiser had me counterfeited with A A, the Caller had Q J offsuit, and the Pusher had K 9.

    My actual win probability was 2.17%. I was 25.18% to tie the other Aces, and an additional 0.03% to tie two of the other hands if the Board rolls a nut Straight.

    That works out to a net equity of 1114.50. A very bad bet at 4:1.

    This specific hand was a pretty unique case where none of us made or could make a good bet.

    AA was 2.17% to win. Call it 50:1
    K9 was 11.81%. Call it 7:1
    QJ was 17.47%. Call it 5:1
    T2 was 15.86%. Call it 5:1 as well.

    None of us was getting the right price to be in the hand.

    [Dunce make bad grammar. Dunce fix bad grammar.]
  2. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

    NY
    United States

    Posts: 2,633
    Joined: Oct 05

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 10:19am) in reply to Dunce

    Hey Dunce , it's nice to see you again !!

    Very interesting situation . Of course it's still correct to call with aces because you can't predict what the other players have . In very rare instances will your aces be counterfeited.
  3. Dunce Dunce is offline

    Posts: 1,153
    Joined: Mar 05

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 11:15am) in reply to jay_shark

    How ya be, Jay?

    Yes, I agree. AA has to Call.

    I just thought the probabilities were unusual enough that people needed to be aware that sometimes there is no technically correct way to play a hand.
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  4. Dunce Dunce is offline

    Posts: 1,153
    Joined: Mar 05

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 3:06pm) in reply to Dunce

    Hang on. That equity can't be right.

    47% of the time somebody wins outright. That means 53% of the time there is a split pot of some kind and most of those will go to the Aces.

    So, despite what the card calculator says, my split percentage is actually 50% not 25%.

    3750 * 0.5 = 1875.
    7500 * 0.02 = 150.

    Equity = 1875 + 150 = 2025 not 1115.

    Calling is the technically correct play after all.

    [Dunce make bad arithmetic. Dunce correct bad arithmetic.]
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