Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

When will you coin flip?

Reply to Thread
  1. DP388 DP388 is offline

    Posts: 337
    Joined: May 05

    Dec 21st, 2005 (12/21/2005 12:55pm)

    Most people say to avoid pre-flop coin flips early in a tournament, which is usually sound advice. <SPAN> </SPAN>So, what are the situations where you are okay with a coin flip? <SPAN> </SPAN>It may not be what you want, but you will accept it as a consequence of pushing in. <SPAN> </SPAN>What are other situations where you should avoid coin flips?

    Every situation is different, but I’m curious to hear everyone’s opinions. <SPAN> </SPAN>Here’s a start:

    Avoid coin flips:
    1. <LI class=MsoNormal>First 2-3 blind levels (depending on stack size)</LI> <LI class=MsoNormal>When you have a comfortable stack (15-20M+) and are up against another big stack</LI> <LI class=MsoNormal>Approaching the money bubble (10 or so left)</LI> <LI class=MsoNormal>Approaching the final table bubble</LI>
    Times where a coin flip is okay:
    1. <LI class=MsoNormal>Stack of 10M or less</LI> <LI class=MsoNormal>Against a stack of 20% or less than yours</LI> <LI class=MsoNormal>Battle of the blinds or against a position raiser</LI>
  2. ikesallas ikesallas is offline

    Loveland, CO
    United States

    Posts: 841
    Joined: Jun 05

    Dec 21st, 2005 (12/21/2005 6:32pm) in reply to DP388

    My thoughts on your thoughts:

    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Avoid coin flips:
    1. <LI class=MsoNormal>First 2-3 blind levels (depending on stack size)

      I think M is the only thing that really matters here not the number of levels as this is heavily dependent on the structure of the tournament
      <LI class=MsoNormal>When you have a comfortable stack (15-20M+) and are up against another big stack

      Yes always avoid confrontations that will leave you crippled
      <LI class=MsoNormal>Approaching the money bubble (10 or so left)

      Yes unless you are very likely to be on the bubble in which case a coin flip might be better then you could ever expect
      <LI class=MsoNormal>Approaching the final table bubble

      With the payouts of most MTT's there are essentially several bubbles once you hit payouts. I consider the FT to be one of them since the payouts seem to increase considerably at this point</LI>
    Times where a coin flip is okay:
    1. <LI class=MsoNormal>Stack of 10M or less

      10 M really is not that bad. Especially if you just moved up a blind level and you either think you can increase your M rating by stealing blinds and/or stay comfortably at an M of 10 waiting for a better situation then 50/50. Clearly if you invest some money in the pot and someone forces you to invest the rest on a coin flip I would agree you probably have to take it especially if folding will leave you with an M of 5-6 or something
      <LI class=MsoNormal>Against a stack of 20% or less than yours

      I kind of disagree with this blanket statement. As you increase your chip stack each individual chip of your stack becomes less valuable then those of shorter stacks however with a larger stack a lot of times you can increase your stack without taking 50/50 risks (e.g. by stealing blinds and playing aggressively post-flop). I don't really feel like there is a big incentive for you to race against a tiny stack that is all in with a big stack. Protect your chips
      <LI class=MsoNormal>Battle of the blinds or against a position raiser

      I'm not sure how this applies. If you know its 50/50 does position really matter to answer this question?

      Some other ones that I would add are that you should always race or take very slight edges if you feel your opponents are much better then you. For instance you are sitting heads-up with Phil Ivey. The opposite of course holds true. If you are much better then your opponents it might even be correct to lay down 60-40 or even better edges.
      </LI>
    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
  3. DP388 DP388 is offline

    Posts: 337
    Joined: May 05

    Dec 21st, 2005 (12/21/2005 7:31pm) in reply to ikesallas

    Great responses. Good point on the second #2. For that one it would be more about where if you raised into a short stack and were pretty sure it was a coin flip and had good odds.

    For the second #3, I guess I was thinking about situations where you feel confident that you can re-raise and get the original raiser to laydown their hand, but in the event he does call, you're pretty sure it will be a coin flip.
    Thread Starter
  4. Massaker Massaker is offline

    San Bernardino, CA
    United States

    Posts: 69
    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 21st, 2005 (12/21/2005 10:45pm) in reply to ikesallas

    When will I avoid a small edge coin flip? NEVER...im not good enough to pass on edges. The players that are the 'best' usually dont need any convicing to take the coin flips.

    From TPFAP: But there is another reason to eschew close gambles even early on. This reason has nothing to do with the prize structure, and in fact is something you should be aware of even if the tournament paid only one winner. What I am speaking of involves the presumption that you are one of the best players in the tournament. That being the case, you should avoid close gambles, especially for large portions of your chips.

    I dont know about you but I dont think im the best player in most tounrys I enter, if you do..then keep giving away those edges while I am trying to increase my stack and give my self a better chance later on..and if i bust out, i will go read a book and eat dinner and come back with the same plan.

    Something else from TPFAP: Only the very best players should be avoiding slightly positive gamles to allow their bigger edges time to accumulate. The typical tournament player should not ever turn down any situation with the smallest of edges. You could even argue that he should gamble in situations where he has slightly the worst of it. But that is not the way the vast majority of mediocre tournament players operate.

    We all know who DS is talking about...its not us tho.

    The exerpts I found while reading 2+2 fourms.
  5. DoggerPA DoggerPA is offline

    Gilbert, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 727
    Joined: Jul 05

    Dec 21st, 2005 (12/21/2005 11:02pm) in reply to DP388

    How about this, you are in BB with 99.. 1 middle limp, SB all in for 5k, you have 4800, avg stack is 5200.

    You are 80% sure he has AK, he has done this 2x before with AK so you ahve a small lead.

    You are avg if you fold but if you hit you are among chip leaders, do you do it?
  6. Massaker Massaker is offline

    San Bernardino, CA
    United States

    Posts: 69
    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 21st, 2005 (12/21/2005 11:10pm) in reply to DoggerPA

    Yea..AK is nothing but AT on roids...It is two over cards to my 99..gotta.

    Would you?
  7. DoggerPA DoggerPA is offline

    Gilbert, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 727
    Joined: Jul 05

    Dec 22nd, 2005 (12/22/2005 12:02am) in reply to Massaker

    I did... he rivered a str8.... grrrrrr
  8. tibby99 tibby99 is offline

    Posts: 199
    Joined: May 05

    Dec 22nd, 2005 (12/22/2005 2:25pm) in reply to DoggerPA

    I would, SB could be making that squeeze play with any pair and any A from my experience. It's likely the limper will fold to two all-in if you call the SB. This is a good play on the part of the BB since there is a small chance you could even be up against a single overcard A-x, K-x. If not this discussion is about coin flips and you have the best of it.

    As for the outcome - I feel your pain - you make a good play - but the poker gods don't come through. Argghhhh....
  9. ikesallas ikesallas is offline

    Loveland, CO
    United States

    Posts: 841
    Joined: Jun 05

    Dec 22nd, 2005 (12/22/2005 3:39pm) in reply to Massaker

    From TPFAP: But there is another reason to eschew close gambles even early on. This reason has nothing to do with the prize structure, and in fact is something you should be aware of even if the tournament paid only one winner. What I am speaking of involves the presumption that you are one of the best players in the tournament. That being the case, you should avoid close gambles, especially for large portions of your chips.From TPFAP: But there is another reason to eschew close gambles even early on. This reason has nothing to do with the prize structure, and in fact is something you should be aware of even if the tournament paid only one winner. What I am speaking of involves the presumption that you are one of the best players in the tournament. That being the case, you should avoid close gambles, especially for large portions of your chips.

    I know that David Sklansky is a poker god and I will probably be hung for saying this but I would change this excerpt from his tournament book:

    What I am speaking of involves the presumption that you are one of the best players in the tournament. That being the case, you should avoid close gambles, especially for large portions of your chips.

    I would change it to read:

    What I am speaking of involves the presumption that you are better then the average player in the tournament. That being the case, you should avoid close gambles, especially for large portions of your chips.
  10. ikesallas ikesallas is offline

    Loveland, CO
    United States

    Posts: 841
    Joined: Jun 05

    Dec 22nd, 2005 (12/22/2005 3:42pm) in reply to DoggerPA

    Clear fold for me unless my M has dipped very low. I know I can find a better edge later.

    - Ike
  11. MUPokerPlayer MUPokerPlayer is offline

    MO
    United States

    Posts: 17,488
    Joined: Feb 05

    Dec 22nd, 2005 (12/22/2005 3:50pm) in reply to ikesallas

    Agreed, Ike. Why call off all my chips when it is likely that I am, at best, in a coin flip situation?
  12. BrooDogg BrooDogg is offline

    Kitchener
    Canada

    Posts: 2,801
    Joined: Feb 05

    Dec 22nd, 2005 (12/22/2005 4:16pm) in reply to MUPokerPlayer

    I didn't bother reading this whole post because I'm in a hurry. But I'll quickly give my 2 cents.. I'll take a coin flip...

    1. Early in tourny's to get an early chipstack and cruise. (I play a lot of tourny's online. I would not take the flip in the WPT or anything)

    2. Late in tournys if i have more chips than the guy. I'll call a coin flip.

    3. If I'm on a dirty shortstack
     
Reply to Thread

Similar Threads