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Whtas your play here, early in UB 150k?

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  1. marroca5 marroca5 is offline

    Colombia

    Posts: 264
    Joined: Nov 07

    Mar 21st, 2010 (3/21/2010 2:38pm)

    What do you think is a better line in this spot in order to extract value from our hand......are we calling or straightforward 3betting?...ty in advance

    Stage #106817787 Tourney ID 5145261 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 30 - 2010-03-21 13:25:46 (ET)
    Table: 27 (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer
    Seat 1 - SOEPGROENTE (3,000 in chips)
    Seat 2 - UCF_THAYER (2,925 in chips)
    Seat 3 - AAAAOWNS (3,080 in chips)
    Seat 4 - BEACHRAT1946 (6,410 in chips)
    Seat 5 - MURIBE (3,060 in chips)
    Seat 6 - CHERRYWAVES (3,075 in chips)
    Seat 7 - 150383 (2,910 in chips)
    Seat 8 - SQUIRRELY1 (2,945 in chips)
    Seat 9 - JOSIAHW (5,695 in chips)
    150383 - Posts small blind 15
    SQUIRRELY1 - Posts big blind 30
    *** POCKET CARDS ***
    Dealt to MURIBE [Ac As]
    JOSIAHW - Folds
    SOEPGROENTE - Folds
    UCF_THAYER - Folds
    AAAAOWNS - Folds
    BEACHRAT1946 - Folds
    MURIBE - Raises 90 to 90
    CHERRYWAVES - Folds
    150383 - Calls 75
    SQUIRRELY1 - Folds
    *** FLOP *** [Kd Qh Ad]
    150383 - Checks
    MURIBE - Bets 120
    150383 - Raises 315 to 315
    MURIBE ?
    218 
  2. bef99hwk bef99hwk is offline

    Manhattan, KS
    United States

    Posts: 7,332
    Joined: Apr 07

    Mar 21st, 2010 (3/21/2010 2:48pm) in reply to marroca5

    His raise doesn't necessarily look like a strong hand, and u reraising the flop looks basically like AA/QQ/KK, AQ/AK KQ and flopped str8. so i'd prolly flat then lead or c/r turn, prolly the first one. I mean he either has a coolered type hand, or a drawing hand
  3. doomed222 doomed222 is offline

    Canton, MI
    United States

    Posts: 5,005
    Joined: Aug 05

    Mar 21st, 2010 (3/21/2010 3:38pm) in reply to bef99hwk

     
    Originally Posted by bef99hwk View Post

    His raise doesn't necessarily look like a strong hand, and u reraising the flop looks basically like AA/QQ/KK, AQ/AK KQ and flopped str8.  so i'd prolly flat then lead or c/r turn, prolly the first one.  I mean he either has a coolered type hand, or a drawing hand

    bef owns

    /thread
  4. rainmanrcp rainmanrcp is offline

    Wilmington, NC
    United States

    Posts: 1,164
    Joined: Aug 09

    Mar 21st, 2010 (3/21/2010 5:31pm) in reply to doomed222

    flat and see what he does on the turn imo
  5. marroca5 marroca5 is offline

    Colombia

    Posts: 264
    Joined: Nov 07

    Mar 21st, 2010 (3/21/2010 7:02pm) in reply to doomed222

    I have possition on him fwiw bef
    218 
    Thread Starter
  6. el arracachero el arracachero is offline

    Colombia

    Posts: 284
    Joined: Feb 10

    Mar 21st, 2010 (3/21/2010 9:06pm) in reply to marroca5

    His likely range is:

    6 K sets combos equity vs 90%

    6 Q sets combos equity vs 90%

    10 KQ combos equity vs 100%

    15 TJ straight but not flush combos equity vs 35%

    13 Qxjx combos equity vs 85%

    13 Qxtx combos equity vs 85%

    13 Kxjx combos equity vs 85%

    13 kxtx combos equity vs 85%

    2 straight and flush combos equity vs 65%

    6 Flush combos ( 45<SC<9T) equity vs 75%

    1 JdTd equity vs 30%

    85 hands........if my numbers are ok we have 76,8% equity against his range.... we can even narrow his range further taking into account his action line and his tendencies and playing style, but for simplicity i will assume this range equity is similar to a range equity after discounting some of the 85 holdings he is likely to have originally....

    This means that he is only a 23,2% favorite against us assuming he gets to see a turn and a river....now how can we maximize our value?????

    If we 3 bet, we are going to make folds most of his hands and probably he will continue with straights, str8+flush, and sets....we have a good equity against this hands

    But if we flat, he is likely to bet again in the turn....then we have to find what is more EV the value we get from his all in range in the flop or the value from future bets in the turn?

    I dont have time to do this right now we i hope i can finish the math tomorow. I hope this post gives a clear picture of the situation though.
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