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Why bad beats happen more often to good players!!!

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  1. J_BOYZZ J_BOYZZ is offline

    Canada

    Posts: 1,403
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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 12:25am)

    I'm by no means one of the great online poker players but i do make a consistent profit at the game and play every day. After having a bad day with many horendous beats a thought occured to me. That is "bad beats happen more often to good players than they do to bad players. The reason being the good or great players for that matter usually find themselves more often than not going in with the best hand and making the correct plays. I was currently 6 tabling $30 SNG's on party this evening and nothing was going right. I was taking beats left and right. I have AA flop 4 102 i bet he raises i push he shows A7 turns a spade and gg me. Another scenario which im not going into a lot of detail about(blinds,position etc.) is i have AJ flop J 9 4 he bets i push he shows 7 8 river 10 gg me again. After these beats kept happening i asked myself why do players suck out on me way more than i do on them. And then it hit me on why bad beats happen to good players more often and here is the reason. The reason being is myself or other good poker players would never dream of making these kinds of calls. We for the most part play poker the way poker is meant to be played so we can make a consistent profit. Good players do not call off there tourney on flush draws with an avg. stack or a gutshot thus being set up to take a bad beat. On the other hand donkeys do it in a heatbeat and that is the reason good players take so many more bad beats than the fish. I mean for all u good players out there just know u will take many more beats than a bad player will for the reason u will often be going in way ahead.......

    Yesbo
  2. rjup! rjup! is offline

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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 12:53am) in reply to J_BOYZZ

    WTF are you talking about? Everybody takes roughly the same amount of bad beats over time as a function of how many hands they are in. You think some donkey's AA is invulnerable or something? Back to the drawing room with you because you are ALL wrong, good day Sir.
  3. Kc Kash Kc Kash is offline

    Roland, OK
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 12:54am) in reply to J_BOYZZ

    Good point. I think the less experienced players just get tired of being pushed around constantly and make the only play they know, ALL IN!
  4. LatestLines2 LatestLines2 is offline

    Revere, MA
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 1:00am) in reply to rjup!

    WTF are you talking about? Everybody takes roughly the same amount of bad beats over time as a function of how many hands they are in. You think some donkey's AA is invulnerable or something? Back to the drawing room with you because you are ALL wrong, good day Sir.

    Are you sure?
  5. alwaysdrowning alwaysdrowning is offline

    Jarrettsville, MD
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 1:02am) in reply to Kc Kash

    rjup! im not sure you know what you are talking about. Good post, and is very true. People who get in with the best of the time do suffer more bad beats, because generally they have the lead when the cards are flipped up.
  6. Aces_Kid Aces_Kid is offline

    Monmouth Junction, NJ
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 2:21am) in reply to alwaysdrowning

    starting next year...im going to keep track of every hand i play online or live and what happens and see how the bad beats come....so i can figure out how to avoid them...because i take bad beats daily.....

    Aces_Kid
  7. Nips89 Nips89 is offline

    Vancouver
    Canada

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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 3:54am) in reply to J_BOYZZ

    no offense, but isn't that common sense?
  8. beanie beanie is offline

    Saint Paul, MN
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 4:42am) in reply to J_BOYZZ

    Spirit of the post is good in fact I think Roy Cooke wrote an article similar to this a while back.
  9. MUPokerPlayer MUPokerPlayer is offline

    MO
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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 4:52am) in reply to rjup!

    Wow, rjup. Quick to call him an idiot, no? Reread the post, think harder about it, then edit your post.
  10. Scheibs Scheibs is offline

    Nanaimo
    Canada

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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 6:05am) in reply to beanie

    f beanie.
  11. BlackRain BlackRain is offline

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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 6:20am) in reply to Scheibs

    Rjup, you are out to lunch. Do you see why yet? It's a bit of a Captain Obvious thread but I certainly agree.
  12. kintanon kintanon is offline

    Comer, GA
    United States

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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 8:38am) in reply to LatestLines2

    You're both right. Example: Good player plays 100 hands, is in with AA, or KK each time. Is ALWAYS head when the cards are turned over preflop. He's still gonna get sucked out on 30% of the time.
    Uber Donkey plays 100 random hands.. He's only ahead preflop 30 times. He gets sucked out on also 30% of the time. But that's only 10 hands for him. The rest of the time he just loses or sucks out on the other guy. The good player got sucked out on in 30 hands. So the good player got sucked out on 3 times as much as the bad player, even though they both got sucked out on the same percent and played the same number of hands.

    Kintanon
  13. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 10:15am) in reply to beanie

    Roy Cooke did indeed. Bobby Baldwin wrote about it in his book that came out back in the 80s, I think (I know I've seen quotes from him on the topic).

    I updated the concept in my first guest article for P5s a couple months back...it ran a couple issues ago in Card Player College. Bad players (what I called the "Low" in my article) play that A7 suited because, well, they're SOOOOTED, and they've got the flush draw. They don't know the odds of hitting the 5th spade are 2-to-1 against. Great players (what I called the "High") play that A7 suited because they know the implied odds of getting paid off on the hand if they do hit, and if they don't...well, it's OK, because another game is right around the corner.

    The good players (the "Middle") wouldn't play the hand in the first place...once there's an initial raise to them, they think that A7 isn't good enough to play on and they muck it. So the Middle player doesn't give himself the chance to deliver a bad beat...they just play hands that will receive it.
     
  14. pistol45 pistol45 is offline

    Beaverton, OR
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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 5:41pm) in reply to grapsfan

    Precisely why the big sites are reknowned for having the more bad beats than average. Even the sharks have a hard time with all the fish.
  15. jsbyun jsbyun is offline

    Pleasanton, CA
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    Dec 6th, 2005 (12/6/2005 6:55pm) in reply to pistol45

    I thought it was common knowledge that good players will always get sucked out on far more often than sucking out themselves. If you get sucked out on all the time, you should be proud because it could mean that you are actually good.
  16. jrlv jrlv is offline

    NY
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    Dec 9th, 2005 (12/9/2005 6:03pm) in reply to jsbyun

    I doesnt make me proud, its actually frustrating cause the suckouts seem to always happen at the worst time and are crippling to the point of almost elimination
  17. haleike haleike is offline

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    Dec 9th, 2005 (12/9/2005 7:53pm) in reply to jrlv

    Bottom line:

    Do you consistently get your money in with the best hand?

    If yes,
    than you are a pretty good and will take more bad beats than the average player.
    Basically you are folding hands that do not have a +EV before the miracle card normally hits. Therefore you deliver fewer than average bad beats.
  18. Yakuzasan Yakuzasan is offline

    Edmonds, WA
    United States

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    Dec 9th, 2005 (12/9/2005 10:33pm) in reply to J_BOYZZ

    already been said, but AA vs a flush draw isnt much of a beat buddy
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