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Is it worth risking a big chipstack early if you're pretty sure its slightly +EV

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  1. Willrr Willrr is offline

    Riverside, CT
    United States

    Posts: 467
    Joined: Jun 05

    Jul 14th, 2008 (7/14/2008 7:08pm)

    Villian has open shipped 18k on 3 occasions, hasn't shown down, has made raises like this 2 other times, haven't seen the results, is it worth risking a healthy stack in this spot given history?

    Full Tilt Poker Game #7223214550: $25,000 KO Guarantee (54171661), Table 11 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:03:48 ET - 2008/07/14
    Seat 1: Rubludar (18,124)
    Seat 2: tjl402 (7,920)
    Seat 3: Minimoon21 (10,322)
    Seat 4: SOOUWOOU (7,413)
    Seat 5: jalla81 (4,882), is sitting out
    Seat 6: 1923 (8,910)
    Seat 8: pokASROI (24,691)
    Seat 9: Jagz7 (12,098)
    Jagz7 posts the small blind of 100
    Rubludar posts the big blind of 200
    The button is in seat #8
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Rubludar [Js Jd]
    tjl402 folds
    Minimoon21 folds
    SOOUWOOU folds
    jalla81 folds
    1923 folds
    pokASROI raises to 400
    Jagz7 folds
    Rubludar raises to 1,600
    jalla81 has returned
    pokASROI has 15 seconds left to act
    pokASROI raises to 24,691, and is all in
    Rubludar has 15 seconds left to act
    Rubludar has requested TIME
    Rubludar: sigh......
    Rubludar folds
    Uncalled bet of 23,091 returned to pokASROI
    pokASROI mucks
    pokASROI wins the pot (3,300)
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 3,300 | Rake 0
    Seat 1: Rubludar (big blind) folded before the Flop
    Seat 2: tjl402 didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 3: Minimoon21 didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 4: SOOUWOOU didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 5: jalla81 didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 6: 1923 didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 8: pokASROI (button) collected (3,300), mucked
    Seat 9: Jagz7 (small blind) folded before the Flop
     
  2. threebanger threebanger is offline

    United States

    Posts: 5,094
    Joined: Sep 07

    Jul 14th, 2008 (7/14/2008 7:15pm) in reply to Willrr

    Sure, if you're willing to live with the result when his A5o finds an ace on the river. I mean, it sucks but you have to lay this down this early.
  3. 3kingme3 3kingme3 is offline

    NY
    United States

    Posts: 3,848
    Joined: Sep 07

    Jul 14th, 2008 (7/14/2008 7:22pm) in reply to Willrr

    yes
  4. adam_mc adam_mc is offline

    Ottawa
    Canada

    Posts: 1,207
    Joined: Aug 06

    Jul 14th, 2008 (7/14/2008 7:26pm) in reply to 3kingme3

    Why turn JJ into a bluff like you did here? If you planned to 3 bet fold to a shove you are 100% better off flatting and playing a flop.
  5. Willrr Willrr is offline

    Riverside, CT
    United States

    Posts: 467
    Joined: Jun 05

    Jul 14th, 2008 (7/14/2008 7:28pm) in reply to adam_mc

    in retrospect I agree with all responses, I hate myself.

    EDIT: Not really, just poker.
     
    Thread Starter
  6. Neek Neek is offline

    Boca Raton, FL
    United States

    Posts: 2,216
    Joined: Oct 06

    Jul 14th, 2008 (7/14/2008 7:30pm) in reply to Willrr

    If it’s the first hand of a tournament and I know I’m a 60:40 favorite when one player pushes in, I’ll gladly call. I’m thrilled to have the opportunity. You are going to have to accumulate so many chips just to make the money that you cannot pass up the chances to start building your stack. A lot of people don’t like taking these types of risks early, but if your hand holds up you’ve taken a giant step forward towards your ultimate goal of winning the tournament.

    --Greg Raymer
     
  7. Fife19 Fife19 is offline

    Halifax
    Canada

    Posts: 10,711
    Joined: Jun 06

    Jul 14th, 2008 (7/14/2008 7:32pm) in reply to adam_mc

     
    Originally Posted by adam_mc View Post

    Why turn JJ into a bluff like you did here? If you planned to 3 bet fold to a shove you are 100% better off flatting and playing a flop.

    ^^^He gives good advice^^^
  8. FouTight FouTight is offline international super spy

    Montreal
    Canada

    Posts: 6,739
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jul 14th, 2008 (7/14/2008 7:56pm) in reply to Fife19

    i hapilly snap call
    730 
  9. Leafs4ever21 Leafs4ever21 is offline

    Halifax
    Canada

    Posts: 1,659
    Joined: Dec 06

    Jul 14th, 2008 (7/14/2008 7:59pm) in reply to FouTight

    if you would have been at the table as long as i had been, its the easiest snap call of all time.
     
  10. Dead Money Dom Dead Money Dom is offline

    Buffalo, NY
    United States

    Posts: 985
    Joined: Apr 08

    Jul 14th, 2008 (7/14/2008 8:05pm) in reply to Fife19

     
    Originally Posted by Fife19 View Post

     
    Originally Posted by adam_mc View Post

    Why turn JJ into a bluff like you did here? If you planned to 3 bet fold to a shove you are 100% better off flatting and playing a flop.

    ^^^He gives good advice^^^

    i played at his table at turning stone and he didnt believe i could pick out canadians from appearence only.
     
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