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Would you have done the same?

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  1. wizard210 wizard210 is offline

    Clarion, PA
    United States

    Posts: 9
    Joined: Oct 06

    Jan 15th, 2008 (1/15/2008 8:01am)

    Hi guys!

    Long time lurker on this site. First post so be gentle on me. I got into an argument with a buddy and my brother over this hand. They think I should of folded this and waited for a better spot. I said with the blinds and antes and my stack size I don't think I can wait. Also given the fact that the BB was going to hit me pretty soon.

    So what are others thoughts on this.

    Hand #49829087-246 at Mon9pmBounty-002 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
    Started at 15/Jan/08 00:27:53

    moe86 is at seat 1 with 16230.
    evilCrusher is at seat 2 with 29070.
    fuerte is at seat 3 with 11910.
    antle is at seat 4 with 53850.
    melngab is at seat 5 with 34470.
    <span> wizard210 is at seat 6 with 17765.</span>
    jaxsonguy is at seat 7 with 40440.
    FoundSon is at seat 8 with 32755.
    The button is at seat 6.

    moe86 posts ante (200).
    evilCrusher posts ante (200).
    fuerte posts ante (200).
    antle posts ante (200).
    melngab posts ante (200).
    wizard210 posts ante (200).
    jaxsonguy posts ante (200).
    FoundSon posts ante (200).
    FoundSon posts the small blind of 1000.
    moe86 posts the big blind of 2000.

    moe86: -- --
    evilCrusher: -- --
    fuerte: -- --
    antle: -- --
    melngab: -- --
    <span> wizard210: 3d 3c</span>
    jaxsonguy: -- --
    FoundSon: -- --

    Pre-flop:

    evilCrusher folds. fuerte folds. antle folds. melngab raises to 8600.
    <span>wizard210 goes all-in for 17565</span>. jaxsonguy goes all-in for 40240. FoundSon
    folds. moe86 folds. melngab goes all-in for 34270.
    jaxsonguy is returned 5970 (uncalled).

    Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

    melngab shows Ac Kd.
    wizard210 shows 3d 3c.
    jaxsonguy shows Ks Kc.

    Flop (board: 8c 3h Ad):

    (no action in this round)

    Turn (board: 8c 3h Ad Kh):

    (no action in this round)

    River (board: 8c 3h Ad Kh 8d):

    (no action in this round)

    Showdown:

    melngab has Ac Kd 8c Ad Kh: two pair, aces and kings.
    wizard210 has 3d 3c 8c 3h 8d: full house, threes full of eights.
    jaxsonguy has Ks Kc 8c Kh 8d: full house, kings full of eights.
  2. Bulldogmafia Bulldogmafia is offline

    Marietta, GA
    United States

    Posts: 434
    Joined: Jul 05

    Jan 15th, 2008 (1/15/2008 9:01am) in reply to wizard210

    Any reads? Which always helps.
  3. relderretep relderretep is offline

    Germany

    Posts: 321
    Joined: Jan 08

    Jan 15th, 2008 (1/15/2008 9:37am) in reply to wizard210

    33 is just too weak, given the fact theres no fold euity after that raise. gotta wait for a better spot.
    reads dont really matter... well, at a loose table, id wait for a better hand since im getting paid out most of the time, at a tight table, i have to assume im beat by the initial raiser!
     
  4. wizard210 wizard210 is offline

    Clarion, PA
    United States

    Posts: 9
    Joined: Oct 06

    Jan 15th, 2008 (1/15/2008 9:39am) in reply to wizard210

    Melngab was making standard raises then no matter what pushing the flop. Was pretty much running the table over like this until he got caught by someone who hit a set on him.

    Jasxonguy was pushing ATC.

    I'd say my image was TAG at the moment. Got caught the hand before this where I flopped two pair only to have jaxsonguy hit a better two pair on the river.
    Thread Starter
  5. wizard210 wizard210 is offline

    Clarion, PA
    United States

    Posts: 9
    Joined: Oct 06

    Jan 15th, 2008 (1/15/2008 9:43am) in reply to relderretep

    Do I have time to wait for a better spot though with my low stack blinds and antes as high as they are?
    Thread Starter
  6. Bulldogmafia Bulldogmafia is offline

    Marietta, GA
    United States

    Posts: 434
    Joined: Jul 05

    Jan 15th, 2008 (1/15/2008 9:54am) in reply to wizard210

    OK with a range that wide, not being able to get it in first and an M of 3-4 then I going with this and praying he just has overcards AND no one wakes up with a big hand behind. With an M of 6+ I am folding this hand.
  7. relderretep relderretep is offline

    Germany

    Posts: 321
    Joined: Jan 08

    Jan 15th, 2008 (1/15/2008 10:22am) in reply to wizard210

    not a lot of time, but i prefer pushing in middle position with JToff or so when you have fold equity to moving there with 33.

    with 33 you have at best a flip. if we put the raiser on AK, AQ, AJ & KQ or 77+, we have 64(57%) possible flips & and 48(43%) dominations. if you multiply those numbers by the winning percentages (0.57x0.55 +0.43x0.18 =0.3909), we get an equity of about 39%. Your average stack after that hand would be 0.3909 x the pot (17565+17565+4600=39730), 15530 chips. This makes clear, that moving is a losing play mathematically.

    There are also 3 players yet to act which makes things worse (as it turned out, one of em had a monster)!

    I wait for a better spot there...
     
  8. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

    Westland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 6,364
    Joined: Mar 06

    Jan 15th, 2008 (1/15/2008 11:55am) in reply to wizard210

    Your problem is that ATC is flipping with you, and you have no fold equity. Once he bumps it to 8k+, with your raise, he is calling with anything here. So, he isn't going to fold. All he's hoping for is live cards, and he has them.

    I know that time is running out for you here, but really, your really better off with an open push of 32 than you are with 33 calling into a raise.

    If you have something like 66 or 77, I buy into your assessment, since you have a chance that it isn't a flip, but as is, I think you have to fold here.
  9. losfer losfer is offline

    Perry, MI
    United States

    Posts: 439
    Joined: Aug 07

    Jan 15th, 2008 (1/15/2008 2:39pm) in reply to lordxixor101

    I just want to second lord here.

    The key in these situations is that we really want to be the first one in the pot. When you can open shove you have a lot more fold equity.

    In this spot you are always going to be called and you are pretty much always to be flipping or killed (bigger pair). If your pair was little bigger (6 or 7 as someone else wrote) and the raiser was VERY loose, I think you could push. In that case sometimes he'll have an under card to your pair and then you'll have some nice equity.
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