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Would you take a deal heads up in an MTT to make it winner-take-all?

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  1. yarbles yarbles is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 3:10am) in reply to darkhawk-200

    first of all this is hypothetical... if someone is looking to gamble that much money im sure they have some type of agenda i mean unless its some ego manianacle huge whale with tmm, how do u know some nasty hu specialist isnt gonna take over the rest of the way.. u cant prove it.... i mean.. i would def be opt to like give everybody 4th place money with 4 left and winner take rest.... set up some nice dynamics where others are not too familiar... as is proven in the double shootout fo's to super tuesday and other high buy in tourneys where pretty much 1st gets it all.
    439 
  2. bminty bminty is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 3:12am) in reply to yarbles

    I would do it in a 45man if i was up against a fish but it all comes down to your bankroll and if you fill comfortable playing a highstakes sng. imo
  3. BMad524 BMad524 is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 3:22am) in reply to bminty

    No way in hell. If the second place money was so important that you wanted to win it too then you damn sure wouldn't want to lose it. And if it's 'not about the money' then how about second takes all so your dumbass can enjoy the title of winning the Sunday Zeroes.
  4. Jason2890 Jason2890 is offline plays plo for overlays

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 3:24am) in reply to pinishe45

     
    Originally Posted by pinishe45 View Post

    wat a dumb idea

    What's your reasoning behind it being a dumb idea other than the extreme hypothetical situation I gave? If you are even in chips and have a definite skill advantage, wouldn't saying no be passing up on a very +EV opportunity? Obviously the example I gave was on the far end of the spectrum and 100k+ scores mean a lot to 99.999% of us, but if you got the opportunity to do this at the end of a $1 MTT where there's no life-changing or significant money up for grabs, then why would you pass up on that chance?
    Thread Starter
  5. yarbles yarbles is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 3:29am) in reply to Jason2890

     
    Originally Posted by Jason2890 View Post

    What's your reasoning behind it being a dumb idea other than the extreme hypothetical situation I gave? If you are even in chips and have a definite skill advantage, wouldn't saying no be passing up on a very +EV opportunity? Obviously the example I gave was on the far end of the spectrum and 100k+ scores mean a lot to 99.999% of us, but if you got the opportunity to do this at the end of a $1 MTT where there's no life-changing or significant money up for grabs, then why would you pass up on that chance?

    yeah but idk hu and in most tourneys the edge is thin and chances are if ur opponent wants to do this deal u are a: underestimating your opponent or B: u about to get hustled.
    439 
  6. joeschmo joeschmo is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 4:13am) in reply to yarbles

    interesting hypothetical, i wouldnt even do it for a non life changing amount like 10K because if i wanted to gamble i would have a lot more fun being degen in vegas.
  7. MDG0RD0N MDG0RD0N is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 4:22am) in reply to joeschmo

    $EV != Utility EV
  8. Pipes06 Pipes06 is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 5:55pm) in reply to MDG0RD0N

    not with the sunday mill end game structure.

    i might do it for a couple of k, but any more than that seems crazy.

    i have no problem chopping when stacks get short.
     
  9. 4Aces1King1 4Aces1King1 is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 6:00pm) in reply to Pipes06

    Maybe if when we got heads up he had 2 blinds, but other then that no way!
  10. okse54 okse54 is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 6:04pm) in reply to 4Aces1King1

    if the 180k wouldnt mean that much to me i prob would accept

    but aorn i would snap decline
     
  11. jalman1 jalman1 is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 6:26pm) in reply to okse54

    i have def asked fish if they wanted to add more money to 1st about 3-4 times since i used to be a heads up sng player and u get so few chances to face an inexperienced heads up player for thousands of dolllars that u should take as much equity as u can. i would def i suppose do a winner take all in a bunch of those smallish tourneys where instead of playing for like 2k heads up we would play for like 7-8ish....but the only people who should be seeking 100k + freezeouts are high stakes hu cash regs and not stupid tourney donks
    107 3
  12. champizzle champizzle is offline trade with caution

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 6:33pm) in reply to jalman1

    Never ever.
  13. pokerscrub1 pokerscrub1 is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 7:08pm) in reply to champizzle

    I would do it if i had him like 20-1 in chips or better and he proposes it...lol

    This also reminds me of a hypothetical situation doyle proposes in Super System 2...if someone gave you 10-1 odds on a coin flip for your whole bankroll would you take it? lets say in this example your bankroll is 50k+?
     
  14. GrayFOX22 GrayFOX22 is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 7:12pm) in reply to darkhawk-200

    I wouldn't do it. For me right now, the difference between zero and a guaranteed 180K is pretty life-changing. The difference between 250K vs 430K changes what kind of car I am gonna buy.
     
  15. My07pipedream My07pipedream is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 7:36pm) in reply to GrayFOX22

    Sounds like a math problem to me. The answer depends on your winning percentage heads up against the donk. let's assume 250K for first 180K for second and you have a 60% chance of winning. without a deal your EV is 60% of 70K or 42K. with the deal your EV would be 60% of 250K minus 40% of 180K or 78K. giving these assumptions you gain 36K in EV by making the deal.
  16. jeppg1111 jeppg1111 is offline Disabled account

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 7:41pm) in reply to My07pipedream

    the best HU players pry have 5% roi, if u did this u would be retarded. lets play 16 hours and get HU and then make it winner take all, thats a great idea. HU variance tho.

    if im playing Hal Lubarsky HU and his card translator died, then I would accept the HU winner-take-all. Only then.
     
  17. Blu SeVenZ Blu SeVenZ is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 7:48pm) in reply to jeppg1111

    Of course not. Nobody would. Regardless of what they say in a forum.
  18. OfxAxRevolution OfxAxRevolution is offline

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    Nov 2nd, 2010 (11/2/2010 11:44pm) in reply to GrayFOX22

     
    Originally Posted by GrayFOX22 View Post

    I wouldn't do it. For me right now, the difference between zero and a guaranteed 180K is pretty life-changing. The difference between 250K vs 430K changes what kind of car I am gonna buy.

    agree with all of this
  19. BenJamin327 BenJamin327 is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 2:33am) in reply to OfxAxRevolution

    Sane people are risk averse, thats why we've never seen this happen. Deals pretty much always flatten the payouts. If the op's suggestion were logical, people would be doing it.
  20. Jason2890 Jason2890 is offline plays plo for overlays

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 2:55am) in reply to BenJamin327

     
    Originally Posted by BenJamin327 View Post

    Sane people are risk averse, thats why we've never seen this happen. Deals pretty much always flatten the payouts. If the op's suggestion were logical, people would be doing it.

    The top MTT players usually don't advocate and usually complain that the current MTT payouts don't reward enough to first, so I don't think it's too far out there to suggest making a deal heads up to reward first place more than the typical payout structure would allow. Yes, the situation I gave in the first post was definitely a stretch, but I don't think it would be too crazy to propose say, a deal 3 handed to make 2nd and 3rd place both equal to 3rd place money and to have first place be the rest of the money. Rewarding more to the winner.
    Thread Starter
  21. BenJamin327 BenJamin327 is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 5:59am) in reply to Jason2890

     
    Originally Posted by Jason2890 View Post

    Yes, the situation I gave in the first post was definitely a stretch, but I don't think it would be too crazy to propose say, a deal 3 handed to make 2nd and 3rd place both equal to 3rd place money and to have first place be the rest of the money. Rewarding more to the winner.

    Ya, I could see that as a possibility. But if 3 top mtters were left, would they want to push those thin edges and play for the huge 1st place prize? or would they want to reduce variance. If it was one awesome reg vs 2 insane degens or rich casual players I could see it happening. Good point
  22. pageh656 pageh656 is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 6:03am) in reply to BenJamin327

    i dont see why not
     
  23. Str8ToTheNuts Str8ToTheNuts is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 6:44am) in reply to pageh656

    You can't do this for bankroll reasons. You already have $180,000 in your hand win or lose. You are essentially agreeing to a heads ups match risking $180,000 dollars of your own money. I am not sure how much of a bankroll a 60 per cent winner would need for heads up play, but lets assume 20 buy ins. So if you have $ 3.6 million dollars go ahead and take the deal. Otherwise worst bankroll decision in history.
  24. pageh656 pageh656 is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 6:46am) in reply to Str8ToTheNuts

    whats bankroll got to do wit it
     
  25. Str8ToTheNuts Str8ToTheNuts is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 6:56am) in reply to pageh656

    Bankroll is a part of it because the $180000 for second place is already yours. You have it in your pocket.

    When you agree to this deal you taking that money out of your pocket and putting it on the table and playing a heads up match with it. In regular deals you would never take less than 2nd place money ( at least i hope you wouldn't ) so you are never risking anything by making a deal and bankroll never figures into it. In this case it does.
  26. dag21 dag21 is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 8:53am) in reply to darkhawk-200

    its only money, phuck it let it ride
  27. Poker Orifice Poker Orifice is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 9:49am) in reply to darkhawk-200

    Why not just chop it up & then find someone to play a shortstacked $200k+ HU sng? < same thing isn't it?
  28. timoros timoros is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 10:24am) in reply to Jason2890

     
    Originally Posted by Jason2890 View Post

    To elaborate, hypothetical situation let's say you get heads up in the Sunday Million against a player you KNOW you are better than and are roughly even in chips. Payouts are 250k for first and 180k for second, and he (for unknown reasons) proposes a deal to make it winner take all, 430k for first and 0 for second.

    On one hand, you have an obvious skill advantage. However, you've been playing for 12 hours and blinds are high to the point where it's quickly becoming a crapshoot. Do you take the deal, or decline and settle with a guaranteed minimum of 180k for second?

    Personally, 180k is a ridiculous amount of money to me, and as much as I'd like to say "Sure, I'm a gambler and I know I'm a favorite here, let's play for 430k or nothing", I'd have to back off when faced with that amount of money and 12 hours already invested in the tournament and decline the deal (or propose a deal of like 130k for second and 300k for first as a counter offer). What do you guys think? And also, do you think pokerstars/Full Tilt would even allow a deal to take place that would leave second place in a major tournament walking home empty handed?

    Can you give me 20k please?i have to buy chewing gum
     
  29. DrDankRx23 DrDankRx23 is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 11:10am) in reply to darkhawk-200

    This thread gives me anxiety
     1
  30. LiquidSw0rd LiquidSw0rd is offline

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    Nov 3rd, 2010 (11/3/2010 12:41pm) in reply to jeppg1111

     
    Originally Posted by jeppg1111 View Post

    the best HU players pry have 5% roi, if u did this u would be retarded. lets play 16 hours and get HU and then make it winner take all, thats a great idea. HU variance tho.

    if im playing Hal Lubarsky HU and his card translator died, then I would accept the HU winner-take-all. Only then.


    a 5% roi on 400k$ is a pretty decent edge imo, and the expected roi of hu players against bad opponents only is higher. but its just a matter of what mean 400k to you. If i was rich like Cresus ill snap call that sick deal, even if we play for 18bb, cuz any edge on 400k would be too cool to decline.
    Edited By: LiquidSw0rd Nov 3rd, 2010 at 12:49 PM
    Reason: grammar
     
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