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WWYD facing this min raise on the flop in the $5 quad (a/k/a the $5 Sphere)?

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  1. The Baby Bull The Baby Bull is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

    Posts: 576
    Joined: Dec 07

    Oct 30th, 2010 (10/30/2010 1:34am)

    Don't know much about the villian as I haven't been at this table too long. In general people have been flatting way too much leading up to this point, so I believe his range easily includes hands like AJ, KJ, QJ and JT, as well as a full range of pocket pairs but probably not any worse flush draws.

    pokerstars Game #51877162588: Tournament #337010675, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (625/1250) - 2010/10/29 17:19:16 PT [2010/10/29 20:19:16 ET]
    Table '337010675 121' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
    Seat 1: Cleber_bito (41145 in chips)
    Seat 2: cod_boy5 (3665 in chips)
    Seat 3: JonyTitelipz (22117 in chips)
    Seat 4: soundgood20 (11223 in chips)
    Seat 5: hotdrun3 (105639 in chips)
    Seat 6: FreddyErt (37893 in chips)
    Seat 7: bob2005_2 (35725 in chips)
    Seat 8: goofy2damax (40819 in chips)
    Seat 9: 44-Skadoo (78271 in chips)
    Cleber_bito: posts the ante 150
    cod_boy5: posts the ante 150
    JonyTitelipz: posts the ante 150
    soundgood20: posts the ante 150
    hotdrun3: posts the ante 150
    FreddyErt: posts the ante 150
    bob2005_2: posts the ante 150
    goofy2damax: posts the ante 150
    44-Skadoo: posts the ante 150
    hotdrun3: posts small blind 625
    FreddyErt: posts big blind 1250
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to 44-Skadoo [Qs As]
    bob2005_2: folds
    goofy2damax: folds
    44-Skadoo: raises 1525 to 2775
    Cleber_bito: calls 2775
    cod_boy5: folds
    JonyTitelipz: folds
    soundgood20: folds
    hotdrun3: folds
    FreddyErt: calls 1525
    *** FLOP *** [Js 4s 3d]
    FreddyErt: checks
    44-Skadoo: bets 5775
    Cleber_bito: raises 5775 to 11550
    FreddyErt: folds
    44-Skadoo: ???
    Edited By: The Baby Bull Oct 30th, 2010 at 01:36 AM
     
  2. jmeow jmeow is offline

    Posts: 72
    Joined: May 10

    Oct 30th, 2010 (10/30/2010 1:42am) in reply to The Baby Bull

    Hit time, pump thy fist, and wager the maximum.

    EV[shove] = (%villaincalls) x EV[when called] + (%villainfolds) x EV[villain folding]

    = (%villaincalls) x [(your equity) x (max gain) - (villain's equity) x (max. loss)] + [(%villainfolds) x 26,100]

    = (%villain calls) x [(0.46) x (53,070) - (0.54) x (32,445)] + [(%villainfolds) x 26,100] = 6892(%call) + 26,100(%fold)

    NOW, let X = (%villainfolds) & let (1-X) = (%villaincalls)

    THEN

    EV[shove] = 26,100X + (1-X)(6892) = 19208X + 6892

    X = - 6892/ 19,208

    Therefore, the shove is profitable even if villain never folds. (What Wes & Fou said!)

    Notes:-
    Max gain = 85,515 - 32,445 = 53,070 (total pot when called minus the effective shove)
    Max loss = 32,445 (effective shove)

    [SIZE=1][SIZE=1][SIZE=1]Range equity[/SIZE][/SIZE][/SIZE]

    [SIZE=1][SIZE=1][SIZE=1]Board: Js 4s 3d[/SIZE]

    [SIZE=1]equity win tie pots won pots tied[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=1]Hand 0: 45.985% 45.85% 00.14% 23733617 75021.50 { AsQs }[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=1]Hand 1: 54.015% 53.88% 00.14% 27891241 75022.00 { 44-33, AJs, KJs, QsJs, 6s5s, AJo, KJo }[/SIZE]
    [/SIZE][/SIZE]
    Edited By: jmeow Oct 30th, 2010 at 05:54 AM
  3. wes_mc wes_mc is offline

    Raleigh, NC
    United States

    Posts: 2,029
    Joined: Dec 09

    Oct 30th, 2010 (10/30/2010 4:38am) in reply to jmeow

    Trivial shove. There's like 27k in the pot and your opponent has something like 25k behind. Even if he is ahead 100% of the time and never folds you are getting sufficient pot odds to shove your draw. Add to that the fact that he's sometimes bluffing or calling off with a worse draw and anything other than a shove is tantamount to burning money.
  4. FouTight FouTight is offline international super spy

    Montreal
    Canada

    Posts: 6,739
    Joined: Jan 06

    Oct 30th, 2010 (10/30/2010 4:57am) in reply to wes_mc

    YESSSS 5 SPHEREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE


    on a more serious note, i cbet the flop slightly smaller, to give enough me room to 3b-shove his raise with max fold-equity and to induce raises because people are picking up on the weakness of a small cbet on a wet board.

    as played, easy shove anyways.

    Sorry you missed and his KJo held :(
    730 
  5. The Baby Bull The Baby Bull is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

    Posts: 576
    Joined: Dec 07

    Oct 30th, 2010 (10/30/2010 6:23am) in reply to FouTight

    Thanks for the replies and the math. I did shove. In fact, I snap shoved. But...

    The reason I posted the hand was b/c I think that I've been playing too robotically at times; playing a spot in exactly the way it is expected that the hand should be played. I think this is a leak in my game and quite possibly a leak in the games of others. My thinking here went... good flop, never folding... bet... huh, min-raise, he must be really strong... shove. FTR, he had AA and held.

    I don't know if I'd play it any differently tomorrow (especially having seen the math from Jmeow), but imagine if he flipped his cards over when he min-raised and we saw that we were way behind. In effect he did just that by min-raising. Would you play the hand differently knowing he had AA? Of if he had a set?

    After the tourney I was thking back on the hand and my gut reacion that he was very strong when he min-raised. Maybe I should merely have called and based my turn action on the turn card itself. Obviously I'm loving a spade, but I could also jam any bricks, say 2h, or just any card really and possibly confuse him. He probably still doesn't fold since he has AA, but even if he did an extra 1% of the time it's a gain in ev. The other side of the coin is that I could check-fold unimproved hands and have basically double the stack I had at the end of the hand. Again, I don't know that I play this spot, in this tourney any differently tomorrow but I want to use my noggin more when confronted with seemingly standard spots.

    Any further thoughts?
     
    Thread Starter
  6. kawon4975 kawon4975 is offline

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

    Posts: 99
    Joined: Oct 09

    Oct 30th, 2010 (10/30/2010 6:34am) in reply to The Baby Bull

     
    Originally Posted by The Baby Bull View Post

    Thanks for the replies and the math. I did shove. In fact, I snap shoved. But...

    The reason I posted the hand was b/c I think that I've been playing too robotically at times; playing a spot in exactly the way it is expected that the hand should be played. I think this is a leak in my game and quite possibly a leak in the games of others. My thinking here went... good flop, never folding... bet... huh, min-raise, he must be really strong... shove. FTR, he had AA and held.

    I don't know if I'd play it any differently tomorrow (especially having seen the math from Jmeow), but imagine if he flipped his cards over when he min-raised and we saw that we were way behind. In effect he did just that by min-raising. Would you play the hand differently knowing he had AA? Of if he had a set?

    After the tourney I was thking back on the hand and my gut reacion that he was very strong when he min-raised. Maybe I should merely have called and based my turn action on the turn card itself. Obviously I'm loving a spade, but I could also jam any bricks, say 2h, or just any card really and possibly confuse him. He probably still doesn't fold since he has AA, but even if he did an extra 1% of the time it's a gain in ev. The other side of the coin is that I could check-fold unimproved hands and have basically double the stack I had at the end of the hand. Again, I don't know that I play this spot, in this tourney any differently tomorrow but I want to use my noggin more when confronted with seemingly standard spots.

    Any further thoughts?

    I bet he even calls here with KJ thinking half the time your shove is a big draw. I induce bet a flop the other night in a six max game, got my raise and shoved over the top and was snap called by 2nd pair...i had straight and flush draws for my 54% but failed to hit. I was shocked that he 1) raised with 2nd pair and 2) snap called my shove with 2nd pair. I am starting to think playing past the flop more...in my scenario if i lead the turn or even c/r any turn card 2nd pair would have a tough time calling, making it much more +ev. Are regs getting too predictable? Not that i am one btw...
  7. jmeow jmeow is offline

    Posts: 72
    Joined: May 10

    Oct 30th, 2010 (10/30/2010 8:43am) in reply to kawon4975

    If he showed me AA:

    I might assume he's never folding here. Therefore, you could flat flop & flat turn and fold river unimproved if (i) he won't shove the turn anyway and (ii) he will call a shove on a spade turn or river. But this analysis is artificial as AA is quite a small part of his range (and it is in the stronger part of his range). Our equity against his overall range is better, obviously, and you have an eliminator to AA (there are only 3 combinations left) and given the action pre it seems unlikely he has it a lot of the time.

    By flat calling the minraise you lose a lot of value (in terms of fold equity). It's not like you have a monster hand you want to trap with. You have ace high. You also lose the initiative and put yourself in a very difficult spot on the turn, you might lose implied value as a spade is probably the card he dreads most if you flat the flop and I think you define your hand as a draw or mid-strength hand most of the time. Remember that he doesn't know what you have and you could play KK or a set the same way, so he has to consider his equity vs your range and a flush draw (with 2 overs) is not the strongest part of your range but you should represent it as such.

    You're 38 % vs aces, so assume he never folds and the EV of a shove is still +12,830 chips on average so yes, get it in and feel good about it. You're only risking 32,445 to win a pot that will make you smile a lot. Curse him for being so sneaky.
    Edited By: jmeow Oct 30th, 2010 at 08:53 AM
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