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You flop top pair, but it's a middle pair?

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  1. Cabo Cabo is offline

    Cumming, GA
    United States

    Posts: 2,027
    Joined: Feb 05

    Dec 23rd, 2005 (12/23/2005 10:15am)

    I have had a number of occassions recently where I'll have played (early in a sng and limped) say 10 9 suited, and flop comes 9 high, I will usually make a pot sized bet and it seems like anyone with overs calls and too often catches. What bet would you make on the flop here? Other thoughts?
  2. xxFMXERxx xxFMXERxx is offline

    Rocklin, CA
    United States

    Posts: 1,172
    Joined: Aug 05

    Dec 23rd, 2005 (12/23/2005 10:25am) in reply to Cabo

    If you are pot-betting top pair on a 9 high flop and someone calls you with overs and hits it sucks I know, but you want those calls. With 2 cards to come and no straight or flush draw you are forcing them to make -EV calls. They are approximately 25% to hit (if they see both turn and river cards), wouldn't you like to be getting your money in as a 3:1 favorite everytime?

    Keep doing what you're doing, you're not making the mistakes, your opponents are.

    GL
  3. supermoves supermoves is offline invented poker

    Posts: 6,840
    Joined: Feb 05

    Dec 23rd, 2005 (12/23/2005 10:54am) in reply to Cabo

    When you say "too often catches", they have AT BEST 6 outs. If they are going to call a bet drawing to 6 outs, you actually want the call...now, if you are in the hand with 9-10, its likley to not have been raised. So lets take 3 examples of hands where someone might have overcards to a 9-high flop, but have just called preflop. A-T suited, KQ and KJ. If you run the numbers, with a 9-high flop and your opponant holding KQ or KJ, you will win slightly less than 80% of the time. Likewise, if your opponant has A-Ts, in the same situation, you are about an 84% favorite. Any money that goes into the pot as an 80% favorite, is GOOD money. Now, yes, you have to be able to fold that hand when paint comes on the turn and your opponant shows strength, but you should like your situation. I almost never make pot sized bets, because they are a waste of chips IMO. Lets say the pot is $400. What are you going to find out by betting $400 chips that you arent going to find out be betting $350? Nothing. So why risk the extra $50? Throw out a 3/4 of the pot bet (in other words, if the pot is 1000, bet 750) and you will find out everything you need to know. In fact, even when the paint comes on the turn, Im probably STILL throwing out a bet if it is checked or leading if Im out of position. Maybe he has an underpair and thinks YOURE on overcards. So if you seemed to be getting drawn out on, Im sorry. But try to take comfort in the fact that you got your opponant to call off his money when YOU were ahead. Hope this helps!
    1
  4. pokerisnice pokerisnice is offline

    Santa Rosa, CA
    United States

    Posts: 927
    Joined: Apr 05

    Dec 23rd, 2005 (12/23/2005 11:05am) in reply to Cabo

    These are sticky situations, I personally try to avoid them early in an sng.
    IMO, you dont gain much by playing low suited connectors (or an other marginal hand) early in an sng and especially out of position. Situations like this are exactly why. Why risk chips with a hand that even when you do hit the flop you arent going to feel confident about? Even if you do feel that your 9 is good are you really going to be able to call if an opponent in later position raises you big? Probably not. So you have just donated a substantial chunk of your stack because you played a marginal hand out of position too early in the SNG.
    Just my humble opinion.
    Hope it helps
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