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You stacking off here with 40 BB at Final Table? Math Question

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  1. PocketPJW PocketPJW is offline

    Tampa, FL
    United States

    Posts: 152
    Joined: Apr 06

    Nov 30th, 2010 (11/30/2010 3:25am)

    I 3 bet Villain twice within the last 2 orbits and he folded each time. Last time I showed 8's because a short stack behind me shoved. I feel like I'm crushing his range here, but is it really worth it considering the pay jumps? My question is, how would I go about doing the math on something like this?

    Edit: I feel that it's a correct call here, i'm just wondering how much Equity I am losing if I were to fold vs. call. Let's say you want to take the low variance approach (fold) however exploitable that may be vs. getting it in here. How much equity am I sacrificing by folding vs. calling in this situation?

    Prizes are as follows :

    $19,875
    $12,000
    $8,812.50
    $7,125
    $5,437.50
    $4,500

    Cereus Network - 3000/6,000 NL - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
    BB: 182,287.00
    UTG: 230,819.00
    MP: 193,131.00
    CO: 143,025.00
    BTN: 251,185.00
    Hero (SB): 240,053.00
    BB posts ante 600.00, UTG posts ante 600.00, MP posts ante 600.00, CO posts ante 600.00, BTN posts ante 600.00, Hero posts ante 600.00, Hero posts SB 3,000.00, BB posts BB 6,000.00
    Pre Flop: (12600.00) Hero has Q:heart: Q:diamond:
    fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 13,599.00, Hero raises to 35,500.00, fold, BTN raises to 243,401.00,
    Edited By: PocketPJW Nov 30th, 2010 at 03:39 AM
    Reason: clarification
  2. latifahs latifahs is offline

    Danbury, CT
    United States

    Posts: 1,021
    Joined: Nov 06

    Nov 30th, 2010 (11/30/2010 3:28am) in reply to PocketPJW

    never folding here..especially w info given
  3. SlayNL SlayNL is offline

    Posts: 2,459
    Joined: Oct 10

    Nov 30th, 2010 (11/30/2010 3:33am) in reply to latifahs

    Really have to get it in
  4. PocketPJW PocketPJW is offline

    Tampa, FL
    United States

    Posts: 152
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    Nov 30th, 2010 (11/30/2010 3:33am) in reply to SlayNL

    I feel that it's the correct call as well, just wondering how much Equity I am losing if I were to fold vs. call.
    Thread Starter
  5. poisoneye1986 poisoneye1986 is offline

    Cincinnati, OH
    United States

    Posts: 4,852
    Joined: Oct 07

    Nov 30th, 2010 (11/30/2010 3:34am) in reply to PocketPJW

    w/ the info you provided you gotta go allin especially button vs blind.

    he looks to have over shoved spazzed w/ probably TT+ AQ+ possibly lighter not tighter
  6. PocketPJW PocketPJW is offline

    Tampa, FL
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    Posts: 152
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    Nov 30th, 2010 (11/30/2010 3:35am) in reply to poisoneye1986

    Going to edit the original post to clarify what I was asking...
    Thread Starter
  7. Tsupa Tsupa is offline

    Mustang, OK
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    Nov 30th, 2010 (11/30/2010 3:43am) in reply to PocketPJW

    Based on the stack sizes, folding here to try to get a pay bump doesn't really make sense. Noone at the table is low enough for you to fold your way to a pay bump. I don't think you can play conservative at this point, and folding QQ would be beyond absurb in this spot.
  8. The Baby Bull The Baby Bull is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

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    Nov 30th, 2010 (11/30/2010 3:52am) in reply to Tsupa

    I suck at these calculations but it's probably quite significant. You have to figure out what your increased chances of getting the big money when you win the hand are and then deduct the equity lost when you lose the hand. I hope someone who can crunch the numbers can help you out here. I'd like to the see the numbers, too
     
  9. poisoneye1986 poisoneye1986 is offline

    Cincinnati, OH
    United States

    Posts: 4,852
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    Nov 30th, 2010 (11/30/2010 3:52am) in reply to The Baby Bull

    i'll attempt to do this havent done it in a while so someone may have to complete it for me.

    there is 1,240,500 chips in play.

    equity at start: 19.34% o chips in play to start.
    if you fold : 16.4%
    if you call and win you have: 39%
    if you call and lose: 0%

    i figured i wouldnt be able to finish this problem. need that ICM calculator

    but yea like someone else said the stack sizes are too close to consider an ICM fold her especially when ur gonna have 55%-57% equity.
    Edited By: poisoneye1986 Nov 30th, 2010 at 03:54 AM
  10. The Baby Bull The Baby Bull is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
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    Nov 30th, 2010 (11/30/2010 3:55am) in reply to poisoneye1986

    OK, here's a caclulator

    http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...alculator.html

    Edit - not exactly, but I'll try...

    Current equity at about 18%...

    I messed around with one of the other tools. the equity calculator, and the gain when you win and double through seems to be about 6% per ICM. But you going to lose about 40% of the time v. a range of 88+, AQs+, AQo+. That's a tight range, for sure. So, three times you gain 6% but twice you lose your entire equity.

    Now, if I did this right, we just need someone to translate this into dollars. Not confident I did this right.
    Edited By: The Baby Bull Nov 30th, 2010 at 04:21 AM
     
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