Poker Articles

“Running bad” or “cold decked” cannot explain it entirely.  “Variance” and “downswings” are just fancy terms the experts use to candy coat the horrific short term results.  The truth of the matter is all poker players seem to go through it at one point or another, no matter the stakes done in by some unexplainable force. 

I’m talking about, “How the hell could I run like this?  I’ve come too damn far in my poker career to lose to these terrible players over and over!” 

Yes, we can finally say it people, it’s time to admit it to ourselves.  We officially can’t consistently beat and win at the same sweet games we once crushed and lived on.  Right now it feels like we can’t have a 70/30 situation hold up and the coin used to race off our flips feels like it has to be one of those same sided coins sold in novelty stores (my philosophy is tails never fails but bam---heads every time).  

Lately I get punished for waiting patiently for the right time to go for the kill against that over aggressive opponent who has been trying to run over the table when I hit my top set on the flop with position.  I decide to use the villains LAG maniac approach to the game against him.  I know from my assessment and read on the villain’s hand ranges, his line in this particular hand and situation is too aggressive and representing way too much because his range is so wide, so no matter what he has I have the best hand possible at this point. 

Your gut and instinct says his line is actually weak and screams “I’m on a draw… please don’t call me!”  You counter his/her blitzkrieg style by using your table image to a “T” throughout the entirety of the hand by controlling the pot even when your opponent doesn’t even realize it.  Dragging the villain into the depths of the abyss of no return but somehow, someway the river brings back life into a lifeless situation for your opponent almost seemingly every time. 

During this downswing you absolutely hate the river in these situations.  It never pairs the board to give you a complete strangle hold of the nuts but is always that final flush card to put three on the board (the funny thing is whenever you need a flush card it seems to never come anymore no matter what).  You just know from that empty feeling in your stomach they chased their flush all the way to the river because he is one of those “flush monkeys” that doesn’t give up his flush draw no matter what and will put his tournament life or entire stack in a cash game on the line for this draw. 

What makes it so bad is your well though out and perfectly planned and executed bet on the turn ultimately gives him the wrong price to chase the flush any longer because his break even % is not suffice in this situation for him to call with any +EV.  The sad part is you understand the concepts of pricing players in when the time is right and pricing them out of pots to make it a –EV spot for them and by them calling it will simply be non-profitable in the long haul.  But for the opponent, he or she doesn’t even know what positive equity is and all they see is that if they continue with their draw they might, just might get lucky on the river.  They were taught and believe that is what poker truly is about, “getting lucky”. 

It’s just so sick when it gets to the point where you just expect to hit complete air on the flop or the river to be a gift from the heavens for the villain because it has been a vast majority of the times during this run.  You realize it is said we all should run the same over an extended period of time.  I honestly believe in this statement and don’t have a problem with the variance factor of poker when it evens out over that extended period of time.  But it’s so frustrating because your opponents seem to get so lucky on you on such a regular and consistent basis.  What makes it hard to cope with is it always seems to be at the wrong time in almost every tournament to date---you know right before the final table, the money or for the chip lead.

These “luckboxes” are the players who type in the chat box after a classic suck out, “that’s poker” to justify an idiotic play when you had them on the ropes.  They don’t even realize they will hit their two outer on the river only about five times out of a hundred compared to the ninety five times they won’t (not factoring ties of course).  The fact of the matter is so many players today think they truly understand the game and have it down pat when in actuality the percentage of these players who really do is very minimal. 

There are just not that many players who are true students of the game---not realizing it takes hours of self analysis dissecting all the ins and outs of your game no matter how small to become better.  Because poker isn’t as simply as the producers make it seem on TV---it’s actually a very complex skill game even more so than the likes of chess and backgammon.  Poker’s depth can actually become mind numbing with infinite ends and lines that can simply leave you lost if you aren’t ready and prepared for the endless and ongoing evolution of poker and the strategy to go with it. 

This is the reason not that many players today even know or understand some basic intangibles of the game I take for granted, like some of the key poker concepts mentioned earlier.  It took me many twelve hour sessions, hundreds of thousands upon hundreds of thousands of hands, hours upon hours playing the felt against every type of player you can imagine at stakes as low as $.01-$.02 limit to as high as $25-$50 No-Limit to understand that these concepts I learned at every level will ultimately help make me become a successful player in my poker career not because I can pick up and read a poker book or watched it on TV. 

So that is why the losing months don’t make much sense since your understanding of the game seems to be so far ahead of the average player.  The young successful whiz kids of today’s barely legal to vote internet generation of poker players even have an ongoing joke in the online forums.  They call the tournaments nowadays “donkaments”, to justify the trend of terrible players playing in tournaments everywhere, at all levels.  They even go as far as to say the “live” field is even much softer than the online realm (Many argue that online play is actually tougher than live play and overall just better, and there are many prominent respected online players who have had success in the live arena that say so too).    

This bad run really begins to leave you speechless because coolers seem to be so hip and in style this season.  The positive equity in your overall play and decisions made to best benefit your poker career in the long run gets their butt’s kicked like an underdog in a heavy weight prize fight.  You know that old school knock ‘em out, drag ‘em out fifteen-round battle against the reigning world champ, which happens to be the variation of the cards.

Optimal and consistent play from your part by making the best decisions and plays on as a consistent basis is always a winning formula to profitable play at the poker table but the poker gods just seem to angry with you right now.  You find yourself getting your money in with the best of it at an alarming rate and still end up on the rail prematurely.  It’s beginning to feel like a conspiracy the other players and dealers set up before hand just to let you know variance is not the only thing trying to stack your roll. 

Yet we continue to play, not matter what…buy in after buy in, bad beat after bad beat,, runner runner, three outer after three outer…because you know without a doubt in your heart your “bad luck” is about to change.  If you could catch a break you would breakthrough and finally make a final table on TV and be featured in magazines and such glorifying your recent big scores. 

This once achievable dream of one day being a household name like other great poker pros is now very dark and isolate.  Realistically, now further away than even before you started playing the game---before you were introduced to Moneymaker and Rounders.  Nobody believes in your game anymore, including the other players and even worse sometimes yourself. 

You can’t explain it, your winning ways gone and you even suspect some family members whispering, “He plays way too much poker…he might have a gambling problem.”  Which they never would dare say when you are running well and crushing the game, now would they? 

But it doesn’t really matter what other people think now does it, or we probably wouldn’t be poker players would we?  It’s not so much the bad beats (well…yeah it is) or the cold to the touch cards that seem to come every time you look down but the consistent terrible play from others.  Seeing those players still cash and make the money in tournaments they have no business even being is very hard to deal with---especially when they are playing with your chips and money. 

Remember, it seems every time you do wake up with a hand, of course one of these sloppy suckers has picked up a monster, chased the gut-shot and hit or simply hit his two outer on the river.  I know they say “fish” are the people who pay the bills and that luck simply doesn’t exist in the long run, and these bad beats should never let your emotions take a hold of your game no matter what, but how could it not?   

Because a man can only take so much punishment and torture before he breaks.  A good old fashioned breaking point---the point of no return with one’s own shadowy confidence whether to keep playing or give it up entirely because it’s been hurting so badly lately---especially to your confidence and your bankroll.  How could you ever think about playing this harsh game for a living, especially after a horrific run like this?  That one time unbeatable approach, instinct and overall game seems like it’s starting to fade. 

It seems somehow by fate’s ultimate plan when you are running like this you always find one of these lucky donkey bastards one way or the other every time you see the felt.  They push all-in pre flop with thirty-five big blinds after you have already re-raised a three bet with Pocket Cowboys.  When the cards are turned over you see the villain’s A-10 and he says with such a boastful sound of “it’s sooted” to reassure his play.  Once again, of course an ace hits on the turn and your stack is now dwindling. 

The concept of fold equity is simply foreign to them and they just come over the top because they believe in their heart in a full ring game their A-10 five bet shove is going to get them chips because it is the best hand, not to get the other player to fold a better hand.  You think to yourself how could these types of players even begin to think they are ahead with a raise, a re-raise and four bet in front of them?  I guess they missed that part of the book in “Poker for dummies” that says there are just way too many other hands that not only beat A-10 in this spot, but dominate it! 

Also, they consistently call out of position and overplay small pocket pairs and suited connectors from early position or even three barrel bluff at very odd and bad times.  These players could never establish a range of hands for an opponent not knowing what “level two” thinking is.  They don’t have the mentality or make up to make big lay downs or give up a hand even when everyone at the table knows their Aces are beat.  They fall in love with their hands telling the sharks in the room right where they are at in the hand every time, not realizing that they probably won’t win at poker in the grand scheme of their poker life even with all the luck in the world. 

You’re starting to ask yourself why do I continue to dance with the Devil by playing through the bad times but then you remember who you are.  That poker player who plays with patience and selective aggressiveness unlike many of the other players you have come across.  You show flashes of brilliance by playing with “Seamless Agility” (Apostolico Card Player Magazine December 19, 2007) against all foes.  Including battling against and simply outplaying your fare share of “pros”. 

So you keep playing, knowing in your heart that they can’t continue to get so lucky and run hot on everyday basis.  Especially when you are grinding away like a true Rounder is supposed to---not gambling away livelihood, checks and more importantly your roll on a Vegas pipe dream. 

You are fed up with this run around and finally stand up for yourself---not caring anymore about the old saying, “If you play poker long enough you will run worse than you ever thought possible.”  You are sick and tired of days filled with dogs getting way too much sunshine on their asses by getting insanely lucky so often.

So you say to yourself, “I’m back boys and girls, that killer is back on the loose and this bad run will go on no longer because I believe in myself that much and it will end as simply as that!  I am not going to think…what if anymore.  That negative thought process and overall negative energy is over and done with and out of my life for good!”    

To be honest, I had an “ahhaw” moment one week a little while back when playing in a four table $85 dollar buy-in freeze out tournament at my local casino that sparked my stand against poker variance.  A thought popped into my head during a hand I wasn’t involved in, I suddenly realized something. 

I said to myself, “Hey wait a minute, if I am not winning on a consistent basis right now, then who in this room is?” 

Then I looked my table over again and observed the remaining tables in the room. And just like I thought, most of them in the room from my experiences of playing with them on a weekly basis say they really are donkeys or jack asses.  I didn’t find one winning player in my eyes.  Now I am not talking about the hot streak these low limit players sometimes go on, but the winning player over his/her poker career and life. 

The fact of the matter is I now realize in my poker career that a lot of you reading are truly not winning players, you just can’t be.  I can’t tell you how many bad players I have played with and against live and online---low stakes to medium stakes cash games and low level buy-ins to mid level ($500 dollar buy-in) tournaments that to put it bluntly suck! 

What sucks about it is these players are just awful and they don’t even realize it.  The thing is when you have been running terrible like this you simply know the numbers don’t mean anything anymore and you can throw them out the window.  Because you have seen too many people magically turn into Aaron Kantar of the ’06 WSOP Main Event and hit that miracle river card oh too many times to believe the math is right. 

Brian Townsend (sbrugby online), high stakes specialist and poster boy of what us “younger” players want to ultimately become, said it best when he explained math as just approximations to explain phenomena surrounding us.  Until then, just like he said he had done his entire life, I thought the bull shit they were teaching us in math classes growing up was the absolute truth, when in actuality it isn’t what we expect the truth to be at all. 

Basically, all those smart people telling you growing up that you have to believe in math like a religion, you have to realize it really is just a bunch of theories.  And to me, that means you can’t really prove it, just explain it or try to.  It’s a man made application or synthetic concept really, basically meaning we “made it up.” 

 So go ahead keep believing those guys who made up the math behind you figuring he has three outs on the river for approximately 7% chance to hit with one card to go.  Ninety three times out of a hundred is really a huge favorite and you should feel extremely comfortable about your chances, but when the river kills you once again and the last ten knockouts you have endured hasn’t even added up to 93% then you know something isn’t right. 

Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying math is irrelevant in poker or even in life for that matter.  It is one of the biggest and most important aspects of the game (bank-roll management, ROI, EV, pot and implied odds, etc...), but to believe in it without a doubt and that the cards will hold up simply because of the math is where you are at fault.  I truly feel that most great poker players have the poker math down cold because they are  just that instinctive and most “winning” players have a higher and much more natural sense for the game not because they received A’s in math class in high school or took  Advanced Calculus in college. 

They have developed over the years (or “light years” as I call the advanced learning curve of the very successful internet generation) from experience of playing so many hands a true feel for the game.  So just like that kid who struggled with math his entire life and just couldn’t figure out the principle concepts, these terrible players hot run will probably never truly get them anywhere.  It without a doubt develops a false sense of success and mastery when in actuality they don’t understand the game at all.  Remember, there are people out there who the game comes natural to and have that true feel for the game not taught in any book.  These are the players who will be the winners in the long run evening out the variance just like you and me.

Here it is folks.  If you are a mid-stakes grinder who is better than this gut wrenching stretch would indicate and know your OPR numbers are just at a temporary low, and have been in a rut like mine for too long listen to the following advice.  Number one---stop looking to others for advice. 

I don’t care what others have to say about this.  Go back to your natural game, because you are that good, and you believe this because you have already proved it to yourself---moving flawlessly by shifting gears and staying one step ahead of the strategies of the ongoing advanced learning curve.  I now know and feel that you and you alone are going to get you out of this run, by yourself.  That great player you once were before these results is still there, you just can’t give up. 

The confusion you are feeling about the game because of this losing streak will end when you say it will end, and that day is today.  Stop, think to yourself and know that you can’t run like this forever---you weren’t playing bad, that other dude was a lucksack and sucked out.  Know the variance will end soon and be patient because the cards are coming, because they have to. 

Realize and understand all the great ones before you have been in your shoes, maybe more than once if they are honest.  And this actually might not even be the last time you run badly, but remember the player you are and the player you will someday soon become.  Know this bad time in your poker life has made you a better player, actually a better person---humbling every aspect of your life and game and actually making you that much hungrier to get better at this game, to do this for a living. 

You are going to dominate like you once did, and you will get a break, catch the cards again and soon play so well that all you can do is win and put together a bankroll to finally be one of the best players in the world!  Just play within yourself and keep playing because you are so optimistic, making the right decisions and plays on as consistent basis as possible every time you play and you will be winner in the long run!  You are a +EV player over a large sample size not some flash in the pan who has already seen his best days.

On a final note, if you are going to at least use on mathematical equation to understand the skewed short term results of this horrible run take this one to heart.  For every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction.  Basically think of your run this way.  It can’t get any worse, right?  Therefore, your horrible streak is the action and for the time being know your hot streak is the opposite and equal reaction and it’s just around the corner. 

Poker is about timing and having everything in your life and game come together at the right time to put it on some folks…it’s there waiting, will you be ready?  During one perfectly played tournament online during the Sunday Million on PokerStars, will you have it in you to play optimally under an enormous amount of pressure for hours to get to the final table?  When there, can you handle the world watching from the rails, seeing every move you make with enormous amounts of cash swinging in and out of your account with every turn of the card.  Can your nerves handle a heads up match against a scary sick player such as the monster himself “Mr. Menlo?”  Or when ESPN introduces your face to millions at the WSOP, when Phil Ivey is starring you down because your check raise stands in his way of another bracelet, will you thrive like I know you can?  I hope so, and hope to see you on TV “JustKLLinIt.”

Remember, variance will always be a part of this game and it is up to you whether you accept that fact or not.  Just think of your day playing the game we love as battling a full ring of opponents with one extra seat.  Variance will always be in seat 10 or 11 or seat 7 if you like short handed games---but from now on, I hope you will no longer let the past bad luck influence your decisions on the table. 

Variance isn’t a true grinder like you.   It’s like most of the players you have come across, only around for the short term.  They will not outlast the fad aspect of poker or the variance because unlike you they are not in it for the long run. 

This run has made you finally realizing something---that every hand dealt is new life and that this hand in front of me right now, in this particular moment is mutually exclusive from the hundreds of thousands of hands before and the millions after. 

Believe in yourself always no matter what; because remember…you are just one big score away from getting a start to getting that scratch together for the ultimate bank-roll. This bankroll will allow you to play with the big boys and do what you wanted to do: prove to the world that you can play some poker.  Best of luck getting your name in the game and see you at the tables, because “what doesn’t kill us only makes us stronger,” right?