By
grapsfan |
Published
Apr 18 2007, 01:23 AM
It's almost impossible to find an online table that doesn't have someone talking about one of the various data mining sites (Poker DB, OPR, Sharkscope, etc.). The popularity and interest in what these sites have to offer has exploded in the last few months. Single- and multi-table tournament players have a myriad of data available to them about each opponent at every table. As with many products available in mass quantities, this wealth of knowledge is generally good, but easily abused and misused. The purpose of the next few paragraphs is to share some rules on distilling data to your advantage.
To start, I believe there's a great deal you can derive from someone who chooses to advertise their positive results. Many people in all walks of Internet life feel the need to be viewed as something special, more than just a faceless name behind an anonymous keyboard. I know I do....I wouldn't be writing for P5s if I was only interested in blending in. In some cases, standing out from the crowd takes the form of demanding respect and recognition as a winning player. Players who advertise how good they play will avoid situations in which they might look bad and mess up that image. Rule #1: Players who don't want to look bad, won't bluff.
This rules often applies as well at low stakes with anyone who names themselves with "Rounder," "Pro," or poker jargon-based identity. Of course, there are exceptions. I was playing a lot of $20-30 MTTs on UltimateBet about 18 months ago with a guy named "P0KERPR033," and my first impression was "What’s up with this guy? What kind of 'pro' plays in a $20 tournament?" About 20 minutes later, I had a different take on his game, and long-time P5ers have followed Camby's ride to the top of the PLB ever since. But if you're looking for any sort of initial, generalized read, someone named "TakeUrStack365" will be tighter than the average player in a low buy-in game.
Next, look at a player's average buy-in, especially for SNGs. If someone has played a lot of SNGs, their average buy-in will not fluctuate very much with short-term changes. Any assumption you make about their playing level is statistically valid. Rule #2: If a player's average buy-in is less than half of the buy-in at the table you're playing, they will be wary of new styles of play and afraid to lose the extra money. Fear drives these opponents to play extraordinarily tight. This is true of cash games as well. To a lesser extent, the concept applies to MTTs, but with the satellite tokens and T-dollars available at most sites, players only consider their cost, not the total buy-in of the tournament.
When you find a player with a dramatically bad Return on Investment (ROI), anything worse than -15% or so over 100+ games, clap your hands and cheer! As online poker matures and tools become available to learn optimal SNG play, there are fewer and fewer players that will donate their stacks. It is important for you to get in there and take those chips before other players do. Rule #3: The cardinal sin of bad SNG players is that they play too many hands early...therefore, you need to play more hands as well. This concept sounds counter-intuitive, as you normally want to play the opposite of your table. But if there’s someone you can outplay, you should play as many pots with him or her as possible. I don't normally recommend this strategy in a standard SNG, but when you come across a fish that needs catching, gamble to be the angler with the winning hook.
When comparing an opponent's ROI and profit/loss statistics, be aware of inconsistencies. The normal equation is (# of games played) X (average buy-in) X (average ROI) = (profit). As an example, if someone played 500 $10+1 (on average) SNGs, with an average ROI of 10%, we should expect a profit of $550. There are deviations to consider. Rule #4: If the profit amount is too low for the ROI, a player took a shot at a bigger buy-in game and lost. A lot. Rule #5: If the profit amount is too high for the ROI, a player went on a heater in a bigger buy-in game. Check the Sharkscope graphs, which show a player's ROI history per buy-in. Make your decisions about a player based on the right facts, not necessarily all the facts.
The big picture presented by mined data can be misleading due to another key factor. Sharkscope lumps together multi-table SNG tournaments in with single-table games. Top-heavy payout structures give multi-table SNGs a higher potential ROI, but also a higher variance. If you find a player classified by Sharkscope as being on "Super Tilt" (not cashing in 8 or more SNGs), check their recent results to determine what games these were. What appears to be a bad run of single-tables could easily be normal variance in multi-table games. If you find a player with a 40+% ROI at your single-table SNG, check and see if they're in a majority of multi-table SNGs. It’s easy to confuse a decent 180-man SNG player with a world-beater in single-table tournaments.
Every read you make on an unknown opponent is tenuous. Keep an open mind; update your opinions and notes as hands are played to refine your strategies against a particular player. You can get a jump-start, however, with the information readily available to you. Learn to judge the unopened book by its data-mined cover.