By
Crazy Cypriot |
Published
Mar 13 2007, 02:51 AM
This article was inspired by a post made by THE__D__RY about the optimal number of rebuys a player should make in the $100 rebuy. Even though I am very analytical, I do not have the data or the time to try and derive the optimal mathematical solution – something that would be extremely complex.
However, I have enough experience in the tournament, and I have thought about it for many many hours, and now I've put together some ideas on the subject.
A few general thoughts
I think people are over estimating the skill advantage one can have over the field in the $100 rebuy.
In my opinion, *extremely* few (if any) players can be profitable when averaging a buy in of over $709. I am not saying this out of bitter personal experience,; my stats are very good. This is simply my belief after much observation.
Nowadays, especially after the condensation of the sites, the field in the $100 rebuy has gotten significantly tougher. The edge the best player has in the $100 rebuy is significantly smaller than the edge he/she has in any other tourney online.
I believe that in its current form, very few people should be playing the $100 rebuy for its profitability. However, other reasons often come into play, such as the prestige of having success in the event.
Weaknesses and Edges you can have in the $100 rebuy
Rebuy Hour
You will find a very limited number of huge donators (5-10 players out of 200) that have lost at least a 5-figure amount in tournaments.
Besides that, you will find very few weak players (about 20-30) who will either single buy in or will rebuy once (or sparingly) and play tight.
The biggest edge an average player has in the $100 rebuy are the rebuy maniacs (I've admittedly been a maniac on many occasions). This category describes around 40-50 people who over rebuy, thus giving away the edge to those who follow a strategy which is more closely aligned with the optimal strategy.
Mid-Early Stages
The period after the add on until the blinds hit 200-400.
Tables are usually full, and almost all the players have a very good idea of hand values and tournament strategy, and they generally play a pretty standard, solid game.
You can obtain an edge if you are at a table full of tight lower level players, but as players move tables, that edge will disappear.
The biggest edge you can have at this time is a donk (one of the 5-10 mentioned above) having a big stack at your table at the same time that you have a big stack (ideally you have position on him as well). This is a somewhat rare occurance, but when it happens, it's a big edge.
Mid Late Stages
This is the period after 200-400 blinds until one table before the bubble.
Almost all players have a pretty good idea of what they are doing.
Occasionally you can find a weak table that hasn’t adjusted to the much larger blinds and antes, or a fish with a monster stack, but these situations are quite rare, and in general the edge you can have is small during this stage.
Overall Mid Stages Edge
Overall, the edge you have in the middle stages is small. There's no doubt in my mind that the better the player you are and the more attention you are giving to the tournament (more tourneys diminish attention), the better your edge will be. However, because of the overall level of play, your edge cannot be compared to the edge you would have in most other tournaments, especially outside of PokerStars (i.e. your edge in a Party $100 freezeout is probably 4-5x greater). These numbers seem quite arbitrary, but I've done some work in the past to derive them, since I am very analytical by nature.
Occasionally, you might come across a very favorable table situation that will give you a big edge, but most of the time you will have to share or even forfeit that edge because Mr. Bax, Phatty, Imper1um, Annette, or someone else on that level is sitting on your left and knows what you're thinking.
Bubble and Late Stages of the tourney
This is a very critical stage of the tourney, and from my observations, you can gain a somewhat more significant edge at this stage. EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON YOUR TABLE. Every time you are in late in the $100 rebuy, the table dynamics will be different, and therefore, in order to gain an edge, you will have to know the players and be observant.
Until this point, playing a solid tournament strategy and using Poker Office or Poker Tracker without being very observant could give you an edge. At this point, you have to make plays specific to the players to derive your edge. As usual, there are two types of errors players make at this stage, and both are exploitable:
Tight play to sneak into the money. The number of players trying to sneak into the money is constantly reducing, but there are still enough out there, particularly those moving up from lower levels. If you don’t know how you should play against these players, then you shouldn’t be playing the $100 rebuy.
Aggressive players who overplay their stacks, using the bubble as an excuse. Now this a more common and increasing occurrence. The play in the $100 rebuy is generally very aggressive, something which is correct because of the structure on PokerStars. Many players, even the best ones (I've been guilty of this many times) will overplay their stack, their hands, and their position because they overstate the importance of the bubble. Taking advantage of those players/plays, can be a good step towards gaining a significant edge. Again, it is not my intention to explain how to do that; if you are playing in the $100 rebuy, you should be doing your own research.
And finally, the End Game
Probably the most important edge one can gain in the $100 rebuy and in many tourneys is learning how to close the deal. Good closers enjoy the biggest edge because they know how to take advantage of top-heavy payout structures. Every day, you will see at least 5 world class players in the top 20. However, there are situations when the final table dynamics can be favorable to you. Your longterm edge, and the decision on whether you should be playing the $100 rebuy and for how much probably depends on how you take advantage of those situations.
Being a good closer, knowing how to play at that stage, and understanding what gambles are worth taking vs. specific players to create a favorable situation are the biggest edges you can enjoy in this tournament. One example of the latter is calling off your stack in a marginal situation vs. Annette when she is on your left at the FT, but folding vs. a random player, because if you win vs. Annette and there is no other monster on your left, then the whole table is different afterwards---in a way that works in your favor.
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In conclusion, most of the players in the $100 rebuy are really good players, and a large percentage of the field is made up of studs, stars, world class players, or whatever you want to call them. There are still exploitable edges in the tourney, with value of the rebuy maniacs being the only one that does not seem to reduce in volume. In my humble opinion, no one can afford to play every day like a complete maniac because no one has that big of an edge. Even if someone can do that with success in the long-run, his profit would have been much higher if he had used some discretion in rebuying. (Wow, I used to be a rebuy-holic; what happened to me???)
In the late game, your best bet is to create and exploit favorable situations at your table, as well as to seek out and take advantage of opponents who are improperly trying to do the same.