By
Fox
In part 3 I'm going to give some of the reasons that ICM's won't always give you a perfect answer. There are a lot of factors that an ICM can't understand, and they can have a big effect on your strategy in a tournament situation.
1. Your skill level compared to that of your opponents. If you are a much better playerthan your opponents then a number fo thigns change. Having a big stack is slightly less valuable, having a small stack gives you much more equity than the ICM might tell you, and gambling becomes a very bad thing in most situations.
Mike Matusow commenting on Phil Ivey's play toward the end of the WSoP is a great example. He said Phil was playing too many big pots and that he didn't need to take so many risks against these bad players. Mike was right, and Phil agreed that he should have played smaller pots and let his skill work gradually against the weak players rather than gambling so much even when he had a slight edge in the gamble.
As the strogner player you want to cut down variance and take the gamble out of things. See more hands go farther into the hand, and try to avoid getting all your chips in as a small favorite when you may have a chance to get them in as a big favorite later. On the other hand if you are facing competition that is very strong and you think you are actually at a disadvantage then you want to gamble more, increase your variance, and make it hard for the more skilled players to make their skill work for them.
2. How well you play various sized stacks. I personally play a short stack very well, while my big stack game might need a little work. This means that a big stack is even less valuable to me, and staying alive to fight with my short stack is more important.
3. How wild your opponents are. If your opponents are gambling like crazy and likely to move you up a couple of money spots very soon without any risk from you then it's a better idea to play a little more conservatively.
4. Your "M". If your stack is fairly deep compared to the blinds, then gambling it up is not often a good choice. If your M is low then go ahead and get your chips in there, you can't do much with them until you double or triple up anyway.
There are an infinite number of considerations, but most of them have to do with how much you want to gamble right now. A good understanding of tournament play will help you use all the factors available and allow you to make wise decisions on how much gambling you want to do right now. Pay close attention to the tournament lobby and what the payouts are.
Just made it into the money in a huge tourney and you have a short stack? It's gambling time, pick some hands and go with them.
I'll see you at the final table,
Fox
11 left in the same tourney and you are a medium stack? Get your foot off the gas my friend, you can't win the tourney yet, and the money is going to get good very soon.
Use those considerations when thinking about ICM calculations
About Fox
I'm awesome. You would like me. Really.
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