By
steely
Momentum is a funny thing. We all know, or should know, that each hand is an independent event and that there's no such thing (in a mathematical sense) as "running hot" or being "due." But I'm not even talking about that. I want to talk about continuing to play strong and aggressive poker when you have a big stack or when you have just doubled up, and not consciously or subconsciously "protecting" your chips. It is poker death to pass up an opportunity to accumulate another chunk of chips when you have an edge, even if you don't "need" that pot to survive. In other words, we "need" every pot that's available to us -- at least I do! Here's an example of a major missed opportunity that actually killed my momentum and changed the whole dynamic of a major tournament.
In one of the FTOPS no limit hold 'em events, I hit some big hands early and had a very large stack after a few hours. I believe I had about 14k, and blinds were still 50-100. A good player that we'll call "one dollar and five cents" was to my immediate left with about 4000 chips. After a limper, I limped with Ad3d (hey, I was on a rush) and $1.05 also called, as did the blinds. We were 5 handed when the flop came out:
Jd Ah 2h
It was checked to me, and I bet 300. $1.05 made it 900 to go, and it folded back around to me. My first thought was that he had something like AT, but then I decided he could have something like KhJh, QhJh or even KhTh, and I knew that if he was on a hand like that, he would likely push the turn no matter what if I checked. So my plan was to check-fold to a heart or jack, check-call to a blank. I had that all worked out, and I called. Turn was a black seven, I checked and he pushed fairly quickly. I almost called right away, but then I doubted myself. Questions, questions....creeping doubt about my read, affection for my big stack....thinking I have only invested 1k, and I could lose 4k if I call, etc, etc. Dark forces trying to override my soulful *Blink* read...
So instead of calling, I typed, "I am pretty sure you are drawing. GB." and mucked. $1.05 showed the KhJh (thanks for showing, bro), and I stabbed myself in the thigh with a Black Warrior #2 pencil.
Was this a horrible laydown? As phatcat likes to say, "meh." Maybe not the worst fold ever. But I had a very elegant, well-thought plan and a great read, and I didn't listen to the "Little Voice." I passed up what turned out to be a 68% favorite on the turn. Not only did I violate my own *Blink* Theory, but I drained my momentum. Instead of having 18,500 and feeling great about the universe, I had 13k and was a bit down on myself. Now, it must be a total coincidence, but sure enough, I lost a couple of flips and then got a sick cooler put on me (AA vs my JJ, flop A J x) within a few orbits of that hand. And the icing on the cake: $1.05 pushed UTG later on with AQ and a smallish stack, I called all in with JJ in the big blind, and I think he flopped 5 or 6 queens.
The point is that when you have an edge, you take it. Block out the externalities like how you got your chips and how much you like them. Sometimes we play perfect poker and momentum gets taken away, but there's no excuse for giving it away.