By
GB2005
People often say that there are certain situations where you simply are destined to lose or go broke. Some common examples are when your KK finds AA or when you have a set and someone has a higher set. Normally, I would say if I have JJ three-handed and someone has AA, it’s just unlucky and I am going to go broke. However, after a hand in the most recent Stars Million, I’m forced to reevaluate my original thoughts. My thoughts on folding the JJ have nothing to do with the money. I might not have spent as much time later on thinking about the hand if it hadn't occured when it did, but my thought process would be the same if this was a $50 tourney.
Let me set the stage first: Me and WestMenloAA arrive at the final table, and I think we both feel we are the best two players left and have little or no desire to unnecessarily get involved in pots with one another. This doesn’t mean we’re not going to compete, but certainly there is no need to get tricky with the other good player. He accumulated a lot of chips, and he was starting to bully the table a little bit. On the previous hand, the short stack had doubled, so he was no longer on life support as he had been before that.
Here’s the hand:
Level XXXI (120000/240000) - 2007/01/29 - 03:43:42 (ET)
Table '40452630 6' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 4: maxout12 (3364000 in chips)
Seat 8: westmenloAA (19054356 in chips)
Seat 9: GB2005 (5261644 in chips)
maxout12: posts the ante 12000
westmenloAA: posts the ante 12000
GB2005 : posts the ante 12000
maxout12: posts small blind 120000
westmenloAA: posts big blind 240000
Holecards:
Dealt to GB2005 [ J
J
]
RAISE GB2005 , 480000 to 720000
FOLD maxout12
CALL westmenloAA, 480000
Flop:
[4 9 2 ]
CHECK westmenloAA:
BET GB2005 , 720000
CALL westmenloAA, 720000
Turn:
[ 4 9 2 ] [ 8
]
CHECK westmenloAA:
CHECK GB2005 :
River:
[ 4 9 2 8 ] [ 9 ]
BET westmenloAA, 2400000
CALL GB2005 , 2400000
Showdown:
westmenloAA: shows [ A A ] (two pair Aces and Nines)
GB2005 : shows [ J J ] (two pair Jacks and Nines)
westmenloAA collected 7836000 from pot
I made the standard 3x raise from the button with JJ. WestMenloAA knows my range is pretty large here, so he opts to slowplay and just call with AA. If he knew I was holding JJ, he would have reraised, and I would have beaten him into the pot with all my chips, thinking he was just being aggressive like he should be with a wide range of hands. However, he opted just to call, so if I hit top pair with a hand like J10, QJ, or KQ, I would be going broke.
The flop was a great flop for JJ: 9 – 4 – 2 with a diamond draw. I made a continuation bet for about half the pot. I made this half pot bet because I wanted to take a solid stab at it, while also potentially inducing WestMenloAA to come over the top. Clearly, in most cases here, I would be praying for him to raise or put me all in. Again, if he knew I was as strong as JJ, he would have done that.
Now I had to consider what he was calling me with there. For starters, if he had a diamond draw, he would be 100% check-raising me all in there, so I immediately ruled that out. It was very possible he had a hand like 55, 66, 77, or 88 with this call. However, if he had one of those hands, he was definitely re-raising me preflop. I am pretty sure that even with 22, 33, or 44, he'd be re-raising me preflop, but it is possible that he'd just call preflop to try to flop a set and stack me. If he had 9 x, he would also be reraising me on the flop. So all I could think he was calling me with was 22, 44, AA, 24 suited, 45 suited, or something like A3 or A5 for the gutshot. However, I was pretty sure that with any of those hands, he'd be raising me on the flop. I guess it was possible that he was calling with the intention of bluffing, but he would have led the turn if that was the case.
The turn came a meaningless 8 of clubs. He checked, and I immediately checked behind, because there was really not much I was beating in my head. The river came the 9 of clubs, which again was a meaningless card, given my assessment.
He fired out 2.4 Million on the river, which was pretty much a pot sized bet. I had to decide what he was doing that with. I had to decide if he thought I was capable of calling off over half my stack with Ace hi. I’m pretty sure he thought so, since he would be capable of making the same call if he thought it was good. Therefore, would he bet a hand like 45 or 34 suited so strongly, since I am capable of making a call with just Ace high?
-Hands that Beat Me -
a) 222 or 444 is very possible
b) AA is possible
- Hands I Beat –
d) 34 or 45
e) Bluff
f) A3/A5 (unlikely he’d bet here, but he could possibly be trying to get me off a higher ace)
However, I'm 99% sure with hands d or f, he’d be raising the flop. Therefore what I was likely up against was 222, 444, or AA, unless it was just a stone cold bluff.
As you can see, there’s a very strong likelihood I'm beat there. However, with WestMenloAA’s aggressive style, chip stack, and ability to maybe push me around with 2nd and 3rd place money on the line, I ended up calling. Many people have told me that it was an impossible fold, that I played it great to not go broke, etc., but the question remains, could I have folded? I would answer yes. Should I have folded? I’m still not sure. However, coolers do not exist, and it’s almost always possible, using deeper thinking, to avoid being on the wrong side of a big pot.
[comment on this article]