Poker Articles

WillisNYC is an instructor at PokerMentors.com.

When I first started playing poker, everything was about the odds.  I played limit ring a lot and needed to know if certain calls were justified.  My first poker book listed all those ‘drawing’ odds in a neat little chart that I copied and taped to the side of my computer monitor.  It stayed there until I memorized those numbers and hard coded them into my brain.  When I started playing a lot more NL ring, those numbers helped me to make good decisions quickly.   Below is a copy of that chart with some explanations.

Outs   Odds w/2 cards   Odds w/1 card      Examples

21         70.1%                45.7%       Open end str8 flush draw with 2 overs
20         67.5%                43.5%       
19         65.0%                41.3%
18         62.4%                39.1%
17         59.8%                37.0%
16         57%                   34.8%
15         54.1%                32.6%       Open end str8 flush draw
14         51.2%                30.4%       
13         48.1%                28.3%
12         45.0%                26.1%       Flush draw with one over
11         41.7%                23.9%
10         38.4%                21.7%       Flopped set, missed turn, need FH
9           35.0%                19.6%       Flush draw
8           31.5%                17.4%       Open end Str8 draw or double gut
7           27.8%                15.2%       Flopped a set, need a FH to win
6           24.1%                13.0%
5           20.4%                10.9%       Have a pr, need to pr your kicker
4           16.5%                8.7%         Inside (gutshot) straight draw
3           12.5%                6.5%       
2           8.4%                  4.3%        You have pp and need a set
1           4.3%                  2.2%

You also need some other numbers ‘hard-wired’ about preflop odds for different types of starting hands. 

The odds of flopping a full house or other stronger hand are so low (.09% or less) as to be considered insignificant.

However, the following stats are VERY significant.

For instance, if you are heads up, what are the chances that your opponent has at least a pair after the flop?  The answer is 31.2%---1 time of 17 he has a pp, and the other times he hits one of his hole cards.  A pair on the board doesn’t count.

You will be dealt a pocket pair once every 17 hands and AA once every 221 hands.

If you have a pocket pair (pp) and need a set on the flop to continue, the chance of hitting it is 12.5% or 1 chance in 8.

The flop has a pair, such as KKQ.  What are the odds of your opponent having another K?  1.347% or 74 to 1 AGAINST.

If you have unpaired cards, how often will you flop 2 pair (not counting a board pair)?  2% or 50 to 1 against!

Your cards are both the same suit, what are the chances of flopping a flush draw?  10.944% or 8.13 to 1 against.

With paired connectors, you have the following chances:

’Made’ hands:

flopping full house:  0.09%
flopping flush:  0.8%
flopping straight:  1.3%
flopping trips:  1.3%
flopping two pair: 2.02%

Draws:

flopping open ended draw: 10.4%
flopping flush draw:  10.9%

Hence, 5.5% of the time, you will flop a made ‘hand,’ but 21.3% of the 26.8%  (or 80%) of the time you flop a ‘hand,’ it will still be a draw with about a 1/3 chance of the draw completing by the river.

If you don’t already have all these numbers hardwired into your brain, I suggest that you copy this chart and tape it to your monitor as I did when I was a beginning poker player.