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The Bear, Rounders, War Games, and "B"

By MonkeyCowboy | Published Mar 27 2007, 04:19 AM

Click here for the poker discussion thread regarding this article.

In March of 2006, I'd been playing poker online for a couple years and had not yet achieved much success.  A friend of mine, who'd really gotten over the hump, made me a deal and transferred $300 into my Stars account. I had the following restrictions placed on me:

1 - I could only play $36 satellites
2 - When I built my BR up to $600, I had to pay him back $400.

He was paid back in 6 days. A huge boost came when I won the first Satellite, having doubled on the first hand I played.

That first Satellite set the tone for the rest of my success. By doubling on my first hand, I was able to sit tight and only play super premium hands. Not playing is the #1 rule I follow in satellites. When I do play, I want to be first into the pot and raising. The key is to maintain your chip stack and grow it slowly. Do not take chances and try to never, never get all your chips in the middle.

Since that time, I have won 259 Sunday Million seats, playing only $36 satellites. With that as a background, I share with you the following keys to successful Sunday Million satellite play.

Two men were sitting by a campfire when a bear entered the camp site. One man started putting on his sneakers. The other man looked at him and said, "You can't out run that bear," to which he replied, "I do not have to out run the bear; I just have to out run you."

Satellites are much like this old joke. Uou do not have to win; you just have to finish in front of the last player out.

Many times my wife will ask me, "How much does 1st pay?" I will reply, "$215," and then she will ask, "How much does 12th pay?" at which point I reply, "$215." These flat pay outs take a lot of pressure off a player's need to be aggressive, since you don't have to get all the chips.

Don't try to out run the bear, just beat the last person out.

There are two good quotes from Rounders that apply to satellite play.

The first is, "You can't lose what you don't put into the pot." These satellites play very tight, and an open raise of 3x BB (at the 50/150 level and above) usually takes the pot. Watch the people who keep open pushing or even worse, people who CALL ALL IN. These people get eaten by the bear.

A player in a recent $36r satellite went from over 20k in chips to out, just because he wanted to be the hero and knock out everyone single handed. It was ugly, and the bear feasted on his poor habit of calling all ins.

The second quote may be considered controversial. “We’re not playing together, but we're not playing against each other either. It's like the Nature Channel. You don’t see piranhas eating each other, do you?" When you're sitting with 30K in chips, and the rest of the table has 5K or less, you are now the Bear. Feel free to gorge on the short stacks in this situation, but avoid trying to get in too many confrontations most of the time.

If you find yourself with a dominating stack (4-5x the next largest stack on the table), you have two choices. Your first choice, and the one I recommend, is to just sit and play very few hands. Let the shorties battle it out. There's no need to play, as you have your seat won. Your second choice is to pound the short stacks pushing on every hand. Be careful do not become a “Beartard.” The Beartard takes an overwhelming lead and blows it by trying to end the tournament.

Remember, the most you can win in any one Satellite is $215. Over the long run, you can win thousands, so do not let short term success cloud what should be a long term strategy.

In the 1983 movie "War Games," Matthew Broderick plays a young man that finds a back door into a military central computer, in which reality is confused with game-playing, possibly starting World War III. In the end, the military computer says, "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."

This is a concept that so many players just can not grasp. At some point in time, near the end of the satellite, your winning move is not to play. Remember this is a flat payout, and the most you can win is $215. First place gets no more and no less than any of the other winners, and the last guy out usually gets nothing. So if you are in 6th place with 13 places getting paid, and there are 16 left, what do you have to gain by playing any hand whatsoever? The answer is nothing; you can only lose by playing.

A simple concept I devised to track whether I need to play or not is the “B” Ratio. I keep track of my position to the seat. Let’s look at the following example:

I am in 7th place, 15 pay, and there are 19 left. My B ratio (For Bear or Bubble) is +8/4, that’s 8 above the bubble and 4 to the bubble. This is a very good number. Any + number is good, and the higher the better. With a “B” of greater than one, there is virtually no reason to play. There is that rare occasion where you become the bear, in which case you can feast away.

So to summarize:

1 - Don't get eaten by the Bear; let the Bear feast on others.
2 - Learn to win by not playing, don’t become a “Beartard”.
3 – Pay attention to your “B” ratio

Now that I have shared my strategy for winning Sunday Million satellites, here is my view on what satellites to play.  Here's how to get into the Sunday Million on the Cheap (or building a bank role with T$):

The cheapest way is the 500 FPP Satellites, which pay 1 seat for every 13,500 FPP. They run 3 of these a day at 14:05, 22:05, and 1:35. 1 seat is paid for every 27 entries. Not too bad.

The $3r @ 4:05 and 13:05 pays one seat for every 72 entries and rebuys. This is a real whipping, and your chances of winning are fairly low.

The $11 Satellite to Sunday Million pays 1 seat for every 21.5 entries. It runs at  00:35, 02:05, 11:05, and 20:35. This satellite never pays many seats, so only play if you can go deep.

The $11r runs at 12:12 and 23:12. It typically pays three times as many spots as the $11. This is you best cheap shot, but only play if there are 27 or more entries.

The $39 Satellite is a great value with low variance. The Sunday 11:30 usually pays 80+ seats.

The $39r Satellite is the easiest to win but lowest ROI, and it's not for the faint of heart. Expect to have 3 buy ins.  Always add on, never double buy in the beginning, and quit if you bust after 5 buy ins but not before. (This is my favorite.)

I have not listed any turbos or double shoot outs, but those are options as well.

Good luck, and see you at the tables.

Jeffrey Bielby
AKA “MonkeyCowboy”


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