Poker Articles

The Myth of the Bad Run, and an Embarrassing Story

By nowapowa

There have been hundreds (if not thousands) of posts made on pocketfives lamenting seemingly endless runs of bad cards and bad beats. To further the aggravation, poker players tend to make bad decisions when they feel like they are constantly getting the raw end of the deal, which then results in swifter and more dramatic losses. These first ideas are not new.

What I hope to convey, however, is that the ability to end a bad run is almost entirely dependent on the player. Feelings of helplessness often arise in the midst of the "bad run." The player feels that there is nothing that they can do to win. No matter how many times they get their money in good, they always seem to lose. Can you spot the flaws in that logic? Cognitive therapy helps people whose depression is greatly increased by negative thinking patterns, known as "cognitive distortions." Do you recognize these types of thoughts?

All-or-nothing thinking - Thinking of things in absolute terms, like "always," "every," or "never."
Overgeneralization - Taking isolated cases and using them to make wide generalizations.
Mental filter - Focusing exclusively on certain (usually negative or upsetting) aspects of something, while ignoring the rest.
Emotional reasoning - Making decisions and arguments based on how you feel, rather than objective reality.
"Should" statements - Concentrating on what you think "should" or ought to be, rather than the actual situation you are faced with, or having rigid rules which you think should always apply, regardless of the circumstances.

I've read many of these posts, and I see the exact same thinking errors that perpetuate the run. Here are some quotes from bad run posts that I think typify cognitive distortions:

"Over and over the evil cycle goes."

"Yet time after time when I go deep with a big stack, that AA vs. 22 fails to hold up. AA vs. AK, nah cant close that either."

"I've been on the most horrible run. It was bad at first, but now it's just like a nightmare, any card that can possibly harm me seems to come."

"Playing online poker is like lining up to get kicked in the balls over and over again. The beats never stop."

"The last couple of weeks have been absolutely brutal."

"Running bad - can't win a race. Can't win when dominating. Been on a run like this for about a month....steaming."

[Side Note: There is almost always one or two bad beat stories. If losing one or two hands would constitute a dramatic loss, then that player is obviously practicing horrendous BR management.]

Here are some tendencies that I have noticed in myself and other players when their mind is stuck: they lose the ability to make speculative bluffs, or to pick up on and exploit weakness (because they are focusing so much on their cards), and they often make desperate calls with their overpairs, simply to confirm how bad their luck is and how they can't win because of all the donkeys....boo hoo hoo. They even do the opposite, overbetting their big hands because they are afraid of getting sucked out on, and thus they don't attempt to get maximum value out of potentially very profitable situations. Every scare card that comes confirms their shitty luck. This isn't bad luck, it's bad poker, and it's filtered heavily through negative thinking, which conveniently alleviates the player of feeling responsibility for losses.

So how does one train their mind out of the rut? Players often talk about analyzing their play by going over hand histories. This is an invaluable technique. However, if you can't examine your own emotional state with some distance, you will be unable to exploit the emotional fragility of the other players at the table. I have tried to develop a tilt radar that I use mostly late in tournaments. I am able to recognize who has gone into a shell ("I can't get any cards!") and who is going to raise my blind to make up for the beat they just took; the one who will instafold to a resteal shove. Often I am only able to make these very read dependent moves if I am single tabling. If you are in a bad run, try single tabling and really focusing on ALL of the action in every hand (you will play better and FEEL better and more in control).

Example: Player X bets half the pot with a flush draw and gives up on the turn when he misses, but I also know that player Y flat calls with top pair weak kicker and checks the turn and river out of fear of a better hand. Now we are playing poker and not doing: "God I hope all my hands hold up today, and if they don't, I'm still on a bad run. Man my luck sucks." When we can apply this information to later hands and build our stacks simply by remembering these tendencies, we have started to come out of the cave of a bad run. We have forgotten about bad beats, because we are focused on winning despite those inevitable occurrences.

Now let's add these two paragraphs together. Now that we know how a perpetually steaming player thinks, we can also understand the adjustments they are going to be making in their play to overcompensate. If you can think like the constant steamer, you can beat them that much more easily. And if you have yourself as a model, you just have to think back on your own experiences and remember how to recognize them in other players. I also like to look for clues to this behavior in the chat box: I love the player that notices and publicly acknowledges every time someone takes a bad beat in the chat box. This player is waiting to be taken advantage of.

_______

I have experienced negative runs of variance that were normal, and I've reacted to them poorly, costing myself inconceivable amounts of money. Many of my major blow ups in tournaments came in the midst of a negative run this summer where I had been knocked out late in tournaments in many frustrating ways. But the real damage was that in the next tournament in which I went deep, I would freeze up, due to thinking, "OK this is the one! I'm gonna make back the 4k I lost this month in this one tourney!" Cue the meltdown.

It was late in the nightly $150 on Stars, and I had built a large stack with some great cards and great luck. I was feeling great! With three tables left, I had a large stack and was planning on using it to abuse my opponents. I was moved to the seat directly on Rizen's left (he had a similar stack). In our first blind vs. blind confrontation, he raised, and I defended because "No one's gonna mess with my blind!" (That's POWA thinking! Right?) Never mind that I had 6 2 offsuit, and Rizen isn't the loosest player on the block. The flop came J high, and I missed completely. But of course I had position, so in my mind, I was practically still ahead of him no matter what! He bet out, and because I wouldn't be pushed around, I decided to MIN raise him. (Yeah, good play me; reraise committing half my stack and giving him 3947845 to 1, also knowing that I will insta-muck if he comes over the top!) "Hey," I thought, "he's a thinking player, and I'm begging him to call so he has to fold!" Oops.

The point of this story is that I made a horrible decision because my head was clouded with the thought that I HAD to win this tournament (and that the only way to win is to never lose a single pot or to certainly not let myself be taken advantage of by a ranked player). I had decided how I was going to play, regardless of the situation. This is the ulimate recipe for failure in poker. It's also number 5 in the abbreviated list of cognitive distortions: "Should statements - Concentrating on what you think "should" or ought to be, rather than the actual situation you are faced with, or having rigid rules which you think should always apply, regardless of the circumstances."

Avoid making those kinds of mistakes, and you'll be a whole lot closer to your long term goals, and in addition, with a clearer head, you can identify your opponents' mistakes more easily and exploit them.

Published Nov 22 2006, 05:51 PM

Comments

nowapowa said:

Note: many of the ideas herein are recapitulations of previous notions, though I think they are recontextualized enough to warrant their repetition.

Mantra: Innovative practice rarely stems from widely accepted notions. In poker, when the majority of players think a certain way, it becomes more profitable to in some ways adopt the opposite approach.

It is not news that the vast majority of online poker players have less than 3 years experience in the game. In this short time, a slew of talented players have had meteoric rises to the highest level cash games and tournaments. However, for every poker player that has steadily moved up to higher and higher stakes with continued success, there is a much larger number of players who have flamed out due to the hubris of mismanaged bankrolls, overestimations of their skills, and stubborn egos. These players are like small town mayors who run for president.

The point of this observation is made in light of the fact that poker is not an easy game, and that although some players have had incredible success in an extremely short amount of time, the reality is that most players should not expect this type of success, and in fact this expectation is often the cause of their undoing.

It is conventional wisdom that poker is best played by people who are able to have a disregard for the money they have brought to the table. The players unafraid to be caught drawing slim if they are confident in their read of a situation are those that harbor the promise of ascending, because they are able to find +EV situations regardless of the strength of their hands. The key word in this sentence is unafraid. The fearless player exhibits the ability to experiment in a myriad of situations. They learn from the experience of uncomfortable scenarios, because their decisions are not clouded by the fear of losing money, but rather on the particular factors of the hand in play and the history of the players involved. This condition also applies in the opposite direction: a player that is unafraid to be sucked out on if they think they can get more value out of slow playing a hand (for example, against an opponent who never gives up the lead once they have taken it) will be extracting the most money out of every potentially profitable situation.

The best way to ensure the state of mind that is unattached to the money involved (and similarly unattached to individual outcomes) is to be playing well within ones means. If you are playing over your head, your emotional state will be much more volatile due to the dramatically increased impact of negative variance. I am optimistic that poker will be around for a long time to come. Focusing on skills (not stakes) will prepare one for success at the next level (whenever that may come).

The greatest barrier to improvement in many players is the inability or unwillingness to experiment. One of the clichés that has emerged in Poker Discussion is the post about a ranked player making an aggressive move (a reraise push with a draw or a resteal shove with a marginal hand for example) and eventually sucking out. The poster most often fails to comment on anything about the hand except the result: "Wow, this player got it in bad and got lucky. If only I could get lucky, maybe I could play the 100$ rebuy." This type of analysis often fails to recognize the aggressive play’s possession of fold equity. Ideally, the raise will work a large enough percentage of the time to warrant making a move at the pot (this accounts for the times that the play fails and yet the player is still able to suck out).

The ultimate result of making plays like this is that it strikes fear into one’s opponents, because unpredictability must be attributed to that player. The larger the hand range that must be given to an opponent, the harder it will be to figure out the relative strength of your own hand on all streets (thus often inadvertantly devaluing it). An aggressive and unpredictable player often forces people to overbet their very strong hands preflop, further robbing them of their value. Similarly, conventionally minded players also are much more willing to get all their money in on the flop drawing slim with their overpairs against aggressive, unpredictable players. This advice may be contrary to your personality. You may like to play it safe, only getting your money in when you have the best of it. This may be a profitable strategy in limit poker games, but in the context of NLH tournaments, you must be comfortable making speculative plays.

One common lament of the low limit grinder is the extreme unpredictability of their opponents' play. What these complainers fail to recognize is that the experience that is gained in these uncomfortable situations is the foundation of a strong and analytical player.

One method I highly recommend to players wanting to experiment with a contrasting style to their own is to drop down a few levels and simply go crazy (generally try this in a tournament, so your losses are fixed). The most profitable play is probably somewhere in between your nitty former self and the psychotic explosive style you are attempting. Gaining an understanding of the psycho will help you get comfortable attempting aggressive moves later on. Think of these excursions as training wheels to being a more well-rounded and complete player.

I imagine that in the back of many new players minds resides the dream that one day they will be able to have a life of relative ease, or at least be able to enjoy their means of employment as a professional poker player. It is fine to have this dream, but we must always remember that the path to this dream requires patience and hard work. Pushing one's self to this state faster than one is prepared is a recipe for imminent (read: common) disaster.

December 6, 2006 2:11 PM

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