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What is your hand worth?

By Fox

I'll be taking a one-blog hiatus from the Pokertracker blogs to address something that has been coming up a lot in the email I get from readers and in posts on my site. The questions range from "How do I make a big laydown?" to "What could I do, I can't put the guy on 68 so I a have to call him right?". The answer lies in letting go of your attachment to your hand.

When a serious player talks about controlling their emotions they aren't talking about avoiding a Phil Hellmuth style meltdown. Much more often they are talking about dealing with the game in a coldly logical way with no attachment to anything but their chips. The best way to stay attached to those chips is to let everything else go. Cards are just tools, and it doesn't matter how good your hand is if you know you are beaten and you call then your play was terrible. You can email me and tell me what a great hand you had, but I won't have any sympathy if you should have laid it down.

Picture this situation -

You get a free ride on the big blind in a no-limit cash game with 67. The flop comes like a dream for you, with KJ4. you know you need to protect your hand because if another heart comes you are sunk. You have four opponents, and the button is a very solid and very aggressive player so you are fairly sure a check raise will get you some extra money while ending the hand now. With two big cards out, and that many opponents who are all scared of a flush if they flopped kings, there is sure to be a bet from one of them.

You check and watch sadly as it is checked around.

You dodge a bullet on the turn which is the A and you check again, knowing there is no way that four people will check after you twice. this time you are correct as a middle position player makes a bet of about 1/2 the pot and the button calls. Now it's time to end the hand right? I agree.

We'll assume this is a 3/6 NL game so there is now $32 in the pot. You raise to $75 to punish any big heart who attempts to stay in, but the middle position player surprises you by making a minimum reraise to $150. The bigger surprise is when the button makes a minimum reraise as well.

What do you think now? Most players think "Well I flopped a flush, if I'm beaten I'm beaten, but I flopped a flush so I'm probably going to win this pot." If this is you I have some questions for you.
1. Alright genius tell me what hands your opponents have that you are ahead of? Do you think they can't see the hearts out there and a sudden raise from the BB? Do you think the solid button player is raising into a likely flush with a set of 5's now? Both players have shown a ton of strength and the likeliehood that you are behind is very very high. It's almsot certain if you know these players are fairly solid.

2. If you're behind how far behind are you? The answer to this one is that you are drawing dead. Against a higher flush there is no river card that can help you.

3. If you're ahead how far ahead are you? In the highly unlikely event that you are ahead, you are probably facing an A and a set. Any heart or any board pair beats you.

This should be an easy laydown. Don't say "Well I flopped a flush, if you run into a flopped flush over flush you're just going to lose all your chips." Maybe you're destined to lose all your chips, but I'm not.

This same though process can be applied to any hand no matter how weak or how powerful the hand is. The value of your cards must be relative to what your opponent has told you about his. In our previous example your hand is junk. That's right I said it. You flopped a flush in the BB and your hand is now trash; utterly worthless and destined (if you are a good player) for the muck.

The next time you are facing that tough laydown think only about what the chances are that you are beaten and what your pot odds are against your opponents likely hands. When you can approach it this way you can make those big laydowns easily because they aren't big any more, they are simply correct. Say it with me now -

"It doesn't matter what my hand is. Only chips matter, and if the call will cost me chips then I'll fold a hand that a lesser player might think is a 'big' hand without a flinch. Cards are not pretty, chips are, and I will never forget it."

It probably took me 50,000 hands before I had seen so many good hands get beaten that I completely lost my attachment to the absolute value of the hand and started to see things only as relative values. If I had read this blog at the beginning of my poker career I would have made a little more money in that first year.

See you at the final table,
Fox

Fox@pokerfox.net

Published Oct 21 2005, 07:38 PM

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About Fox

I'm awesome. You would like me. Really.


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