By
adanthar |
Published
Oct 30 2008, 03:53 PM
As we all know, the UIGEA has significantly undermined the spread of online poker throughout the United States and made it somewhat harder to play online, especially for casual players. While it has not actually criminalized poker, even those of us who understand the bill must contend with our friends that think it is illegal to play, banks that have occasionally closed accounts merely for receiving withdrawals, and lengthy delays on those withdrawals because the poker rooms have to use the same check processors used by sportsbooks, casinos and others that do violate the law. In fact, it's quite possible things will get worse soon; although UIGEA regulations have yet to be issued, a proposal is very likely to be issued in January, after the new President is sworn in. Therefore, those of us that play poker for a living should strongly consider the candidates' likely reactions to a UIGEA repeal when we go to the voting booth or fill out absentee ballots.
While your Congressional representatives will be the ones debating on and passing or rejecting such a repeal, I believe that our chances of passing one in the next several Congressional sessions are extremely good. For example, we recently lost a House committee vote for a repeal on a largely party line, Democrats for/GOP against 32-32 tie vote. On Tuesday, the Democrats are set to pick up at least 20 and possibly as many as 35 seats in the next Congress, and it is almost a given that, when this bill is reintroduced in the next session, it will pass the committee and head to the floor. Once the bill officially does have enough support to clear that committee and its equivalent in the Senate, our numerous Congressional allies (more on that shortly) are set to attach the bill to any of a number of other bills in both sessions, and while nothing in Congress is certain, I am very optimistic that a repeal will make it to the President's desk in the next two years in much the same way that UIGEA did. At that point, what happens to it is extremely dependent on the person sitting in the Oval Office.
If that person is John McCain, the bill will almost certainly be vetoed. For the last 12 years, McCain has been an ally of, and reportedly a close friend to, Jon Kyl, Arizona's other Senator, who has repeatedly written and sponsored anti-gambling legislation including UIGEA. During McCain's 2000 primary run, he proposed a ban on casino betting - not even online betting - on college sports. His vice president, Sarah Palin, is a social conservative who is on record as saying "I am opposed to any expansion of gambling in Alaska... in so many cases, gambling has shown ill effects on families and as Governor I would not propose expansion legislation." The two combined are extremely anti-gambling and are guaranteed to oppose a repeal.
Moreover, as of Thursday afternoon when this is being written, it is impossible to imagine a situation in which McCain wins by a significant margin. If he does prevail, it will be a very close, very narrow call and he will certainly face a hostile, extremely Democratic Congress that is embittered and set against him, while being beholden to social conservatives like Focus on the Family for his election. The four years of McCain/Palin vs. the Congressional Democrats are all but certain to be one of the most partisan and hostile administrations we've ever had. Even major bills, like the overall budget or military spending, are likely to be fought over hard and McCain, a weak President relying on social conservatives for the limited power he does have, will be looking for reasons to veto anything that is opposed by his base. In that climate, it is impossible to imagine that McCain signs a bill with a UIGEA repeal or even a study attached.
By contrast, if Barack Obama is the winner, he will take office with a mandate not seen in the last 70 years. With the Dems' firm control on both chambers of Congress, Obama is virtually certain never to veto *any* bill that makes it to his desk for at least two years to come. If he does not exert his large influence to oppose a repeal, chances are we will get one - and Obama and his Democratic allies are not hostile to online gaming.
Unlike McCain, a high stakes craps player, Obama has spent a decade playing poker, often playing after hours in the Illinois state senate, and he is on the record as supporting a study to determine the feasibility of regulating online gambling. One of his earliest supporters, and the chairman of his campaign in Florida, is Congressman Robert Wexler, who is rated A+ by the PPA, has written the "poker/skill game exemption from UIGEA" bill, and has actively cosponsored all of the pro-poker legislation in the last two years. Shelley Berkley and Barney Frank, the writers of the other two PPA endorsed bills, are also strong Obama supporters and will enjoy increased influence in his administration. Moreover, his vice president, Joe Biden, voted against Bob Goodlatte's proposal to make online gambling a felony - a bill that made it through the Senate when being against poker had no political consequences on a 90-10 vote. Obama is surrounded by people that understand Internet gaming, are friendly to regulating it responsibly instead of knee-jerking to ban it based on socially conservative views, and are already working with us to support our right to play online. When our representatives act to repeal UIGEA, I fully expect Obama to quietly support the repeal and eventually to sign it into law.
I don't pretend to ignore that there are a million other reasons to be for or against either candidate. Most of you are not one-issue poker voters; in fact, I'd probably rather nobody was, since I'll be the first to admit that the legality of poker is a minor issue compared to a lot of other things the next President will have to deal with in the next four years. But if you spend more than a few hours a week playing online, whether as a job or as a hobby, you should at least consider what either Obama or McCain would mean for the future of online poker - and on that metric, there is one clear winner.
I stand with Doyle Brunson, who was entirely correct when he said "Poker players have to support Obama. God help the internet gambling business if McCain does happen to win." When I go to the polls on Tuesday, I will cast a vote for poker when I pull the lever for Barack Obama.
adanthar
* This article expresses the opinion of the author and does not necessarily represent the views of PocketFives.
Also see: Computer Security for Online Poker Players - 9/19/2008 (by adanthar)
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Serge Ravitch is a highly respected member of the online poker community who played a key role in uncovering the AbsolutePoker and UltimateBet cheating scandals. "Adanthar" has performed a large amount of pro-bono work as a representative of online poker players across the globe and continues to dedicate time to increasing internet security awareness. It is because of people like him that community-driven poker sites like TwoPlusTwo and PocketFives have flourished.
He is also a very successful cash game player who routinely beats $5/$10 No Limit Holdem and $2/$4 Pot Limit Omaha games. He has a win in the PokerStars Sunday Million for $112,000. His other online tournament scores include a 3rd place finish in the Full Tilt $750k Guaranteed for $56,350 and multiple Bodog $100k victories.