Poker Articles

By Fox | Published Apr 19 2006, 12:20 PM
I've been playing almost exclusively short handed fixed-limit Hold Em over the last week, and it has been a great run. Up almost $4k in 6 days is a pretty good run for me, even with a few tough sessions thrown in. My usual win rate when the game is very short handed is about 4.5 BB/100 but I've been winning at more than twice that rate for this last week. Between the great win rate and the nice weather I've been a pretty easy guy to be around lately!

A hand came up yesterday that I thought I would share because I think a lot of people could benefit from a little look into how two quality players think in this situation. I happened to be able to make the following play because my opponent was an excellent short handed player and we had been playing for about an hour, and we were heads up for much of that time so I had a very good handle on his game.

At the time this hand took place we were three handed, but the weak player on the button had folded and it was my small blind. I raised with T 8 and my opponent called. This was common, he would defend his BB to a steal about 75% of the time, and I would raise in that position with about 70% of my own hands.

The flop was A A 4 and of course I bet out. With 4 and a half bets in the pot my bet here was a smart one, because I think he folds often enough to make it a profitable bluff. My opponent was very aggressive, but this a scary place for him to be because he knows I would bet out if I had the ace, and that is a position where he is probably drawing dead. Of course my opponent knew that as well, so he raised, knowing there was a possibility that I would fold, and the likeliehood that I had the ace wasn't really that high.

His raise would sometimes produce a predictable outcome where I call and then check the turn. When he bets the turn he would expect me to fold fearing he had the ace. I did call the raise on the flop, but not with the intention of letting the hand go on the turn. If I call that raise I know I am going to face a bet on the turn that I can't call unless I hit a T or an 8, but I have another option...

The turn was the 3 and I checked because another bet here will probably be raised or he may call me down with a high card or a 3 or a 4 in his hand and I can beat very few hands. At this point there are too many bets in the pot for him to fold to a bet on the turn unless he really has no hope because he he has seen how tricky a player I am and he knows I could have nothing. I checked and of course my opponent bet.

I smiled to myself and looked over at my girlfriend who had been watching the game for about 10 minutes. I raised and said "goodbye" to my opponent who folded. My girlfriend just shook her head and said "Poker is ridiculous".

I made the raise because of a few factors. I knew my opponent well, so I could be fairly certain of a few things.

1. He didn't have the ace. He knew how aggressive I was being, and he would have waited to raise until a later round if he actually had the ace. It would be a waste to raise on the flop if he actually had the ace because he knew I might fold to the raise. Indeed sometimes I would have. I was better than 90% certain that he didn't ahve the ace,and the 4 or the 3 were not terribly likely because many hands with those cards in them would be hands he would throw away preflop.

2. He would bet out on the turn. Any solid player would make that play the vast majority of the time because his opponent would usually fold often enough to make it profitable.

3. My check raise on the turn would look like I had set him up and that I really had the ace. I have invested too much money at that point to make it look like a bluff, and in most situations I will actually have the hand when I make that play.

4. He would fold to the show of strength most of the time. I figured he would fold about 80% of the time, because even if he has a pair he is going to believe he is drawing dead, or close to it, if I have the ace. My play would (hopefully) convince him with some certainty that I had the ace, and he can't call if he doesn't have an ace or a full house.

Because of these factors I was able to make a complex play that wouldn't be profitable against a weak player because they are too unpredictable.

In any poker game, but more often in short handed fixed-limit games there comes a point where you are risking too many chips and the pot is too large to make your aggression useful. Game theory can tell us when that point is if we know our opponent and have been paying attention, and a working knowledge of the logic and mathematics involved is a big help in these situations. Basically the larger the pot, and the more bets your opponent has put into it, the more likely he is to have a real hand (if he is playing well).

I took notice of a thread on the boards yesterday about people who were making good money but were burned out and hated playing online poker. I was surprised at how many people were saying the same thing had happened to them, and this hand made me think that if they switched to shorthanded play and moved up a level they might not be so bored. I can't imagine being bored playing against such a quality opponent, though it was really the weak player on the button that I made most of my money from.

I'll see you at the final table,
Fox

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