Poker Articles

Every now and then you'll see someone make a play that looks very much out of the ordinary. Whether it's a sick call, a massive fold, or a bluff that seems almost illogical, you'll see thinking players make moves that are entirely unusual, but surprisingly sensible when they give you their thought process and everything is put together.

Many poker hands are close to automatic, and even putting in a large session of MTT play I probably encounter less than a dozen hands that require considerable thought. Of those, the majority will end with an ordinary or regular conclusion, I just needed some time to think all the angles through. Now and then though, you'll find yourself in a very difficult, strange, or unexpected spot where the best option may not be the most obvious.

Learning to put all the pieces together in a poker hand is integral to your advancement as a player. In order to be able to gain maximum equity from the hands you play you need to be thinking about everything that goes into the hand and how it affects what your decision should be. What kind of factors should you be including in your thought process during a hand? A brief (but likely incomplete) list would include:

1. Stack sizes: Always be considering stack sizes and what they implicate, allow, and restrict.

2. Position: How it gives an advantage to one player in a hand and takes it from the other (being out of position, while normally a disadvantage, can sometimes be reversed when you want to do something like check shove a draw.)

3. Previous streets: When making a decision on later streets you need to consider how previous streets actions have affected the hand. Think about how they narrow your opponents range, how it narrows his perception of your range, and what your opponent was trying to accomplish in them.

4. History/metagame: Unless your brand new to an online poker table as a total unknown and your villain is a total unknown, you need to consider how history and metagame affect the hand. Almost no poker hand is a complete vacuum, and especially in live hands you have all kinds of information available to you, even if that means making broad generalizations (about people’s age, gender, race, clothing, nationality). When you don't have anything else to go on, start using stereotypes. They might not be PC, but they're definitely +EV. In terms of history, think about previous lines the villain has taken both against you and in similar situations against others. 

5. How each card affects the hand: On later streets you need to think about how each card that rolls off affects the hand and the options available to you. Obvious examples include: A 2 hitting a AJ8 flop being totally unimportant. An ace hitting a T54 flop being a great scare card to bluff. A heart hitting a J52 two heart board reducing the range your top pair beats, etc.

6. Levels: What level are you thinking on? What level is the villain thinking on? What level does he think your thinking on? Sounds complicated, doesn't it? In order the levels go: What do I think he has? What do I think he thinks I have? What do I think he thinks I think he has? Don't just think about the level itself though, think about how the knowledge you believe your opponent has (or thinks he has) will change his action.

7. What stage of the tournament it is: Many opponents simply won't attempt large bluffs in the first few levels because they don't want to bust early. Same goes with bubble situations. Some opponents will use bubble periods to go ballistic and attempt all kinds of aggressive plays. Know your opponent and whether he cares what stage of the tournament it is.

8. Other external factors: Who have you seen your opponent talking to? Has he been talking strategy? How is he dressed? Anything else you can incorporate to get your opponents range more precise. 
It's difficult to explain how to put a hand together simply with lists and advice. I think the best way to impart what I'm talking about here is through examples. The first comes from a hand I played in the 2008 WSOP $5000 full ring no limit event:

History/Reads: We are in the money with about 45 players left. Villain is a young guy moved to the table about half an hour ago. I saw him talking to online players “gunning4you” and Ike Haxton, so I assume he's online. I saw him raise the button with 92o into the BB of a nit with a very short stack who shoved. Button made the standard pot odds call and lost the hand. Overall he seems pretty aggressive and thinking. We don't have any history in hands played between each other, and he hasn't seen me play any interesting or relevant pots on the table.

My stack: ~160,000
Young guy: ~200,000

Blinds 2000/4000 with 500 ante.

I hold Q J in the BB.

Preflop: Folds to the CO, Co raises to 11000, folds to me in the BB, I call.

So far things are pretty standard here. We know the villain is aggressive and he raises in late position, and we make the call with a hand that is a pretty clear blind defense at these stack sizes.

Flop: 4 7 T

I check, the CO checks.

His flop check is a bit strange. I would expect him to bet with every over pair, top pair, and the vast majority of overcard hands. I also think he normally bets second or third pair, though checking behind for pot control is certainly possible. I also think he would normally bet if he flopped a draw, such as 98 (the only realistic draw out.)

Turn: Q

I bet 16,000, the CO thinks briefly and shoves, I call.

Leading here seems pretty standard, though we can also make an argument for check/calling. However, given the somewhat drawy board, I felt like betting was better, especially since he might call down a little light since he might think I'm just firing because he checked behind.

When the CO shoves we need to start thinking about his range for making this play with. Would he play a set or two pair like this? Certainly not, if he checked back the flop with a hand that strong he would almost never just shove the turn (at least with no history) and I would expect him to do something like raise to 46,000 instead. Would he play an overpair like this? The overpair is similar to the set, except there's even less chance he checked behind on the flop with the overpair. Would he play KQ or AQ this way? KQ is certainly unlikely from a thinking player because he knows it's very hard to get value this way. AQ is possible, but even still I think it's much more likely he calls or raises a nominal amount, since the only realistic thing for me to call him with (that doesn't beat him) is KQ or perhaps QJ.

So what would he shove? Well with the heart hits that puts a flush draw out, so him checking back over cards with a heart draw on the flop would make sense. KJ checking the flop and cramming would also make sense. He could also have some form of combo draw, such as a small pair with a flush draw like 7 6, that decided to check the flop to induce bluffs but now decides I can't call with one pair hands and shoves instead.

Overall though, we can't seem to find many (if any) hands in his range that make sense for him to shove for value, and numerous hands make sense for him to shove as a semi bluff.

We also know villain is young and talked to online players, and online players aren't normally the type to be very risk averse and scared for their tournament life.

After I called the CO tapped the table and turned over J 7 for a combo draw semi bluff.

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This is Part 1 of a two-part article. In Part 2, more hand history examples and analysis will be provided.

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