Poker Articles

In a recent thread about a hand from a $10 tournament, a fellow PocketFiver chastised me for suggesting the best play for the particular situation was to bluff-raise pre-flop from the big blind.  His specific response was, “Dunno why graps thinks people in micros fold.”  Well, I think this because I make them do it on a regular basis…in the right spots.

Let’s look at a particular situation, similar to that in the original thread.  Fairly deep in a $4+.40 180-man on PokerStars - or a $10 MTT on Full Tilt Poker, if you prefer - blinds are 300/600 with a 50 ante.  You are in the BB with 97o, one of my personal favorites (really, any two cards can be your personal favorite) and have a stack of 10,000 to start the hand.  It folds around to the button (also with 10,000 chips), who limps, and the SB folds.  There are 1950 chips in the pot. If you raise to 2600 as a bluff to win the pot pre-flop, one of three things can happen.  The button re-raises, the button just calls to see a flop, or the button folds and your bluff worked.  In any case, you are risking 2000 chips to win 1950, so your play in total has to be successful just over 50% of the time.

We shall assume you would fold every time if the other player re-raises after originally limping.  Very few players are tricky enough in low-stakes games to risk getting a monster hand like AA or KK cracked, so you’re unlikely to see a monster in this spot.  But even fewer players are tricky enough to do it with air, so it’s a safe bet you’re way behind.  Anyway, for the same of making things easy, we’ll say you always fold to a re-raise, so your success rate is zero.  Next assumption – the button will call your raise with a range of QJ, KT-KQ, A2-AT and 22-99.  I am taking AJ-AK and TT+ out of their range for the same reason stated above – most players in these games are too afraid of getting a monster cracked to limp and not protect their hand.  Against this range, you are about 25-30% to flop the best hand.

Therefore, we only need a success rate of less than 25% in our bluff.  Yes, I’m being fairly brief here, and not considering your odds of making the best hand on a later street, or successfully bluffing when you lead out the flop.  One of the keys to online poker is being smart about making simple estimates when you can to streamline the thought process.  In my opinion, this is one of those times.

Another option is to shove and avoid folding to a 3-bet.  In this spot, you're risking quite a bit more, 9350, to win the 1950...but you should also consider your equity if you're called and win the hand.  Against the aforementioned limp/calling range, according to PokerStove, you are about 39% to win.  The win equity is enough to dramatically reduce the necessary success rate of our bluff, back in line with the normal raise.  Personally, I mix up my play between the shove and the standard raise in spots like these.  This allows me the right to value-raise when I do have a big hand.

Most players who get deep enough in an MTT to make this decision are one of three types – the Card Rack, the Wild Luckbox, and the Patient Nit.  Open-limping the button isn’t the play of a Wild Luckbox, the unbluffable style most low-stakes players have according to the other P5er.  So we should assume our opponent fits one of the other two categories, and from my experience, both stereotypes are capable of folding here FAR more than the requisite 20-25%.

From my experience, your success rate here will be closer to 35-40%, definitely enough to give tremendous value to this play.  And more importantly, after limping once, your opponent is showing a tendency to just call rather than raise, giving you the opportunity to catch a flop or buy the pot on a later street.  The button is making a huge mistake limping late in a tournament.  Neither of you have big enough stacks to provide any sort of implied odds on making a hand.  By limping rather than raising, the button is relying on getting lucky to make a hand which holds up at showdown.  Successful poker is about taking the luck out of the game.  Limping in from the button, or taking a free flop from the BB, means you’re crossing your fingers and hoping rather than taking advantage of +EV spots.  Might as well go stick your money in a slot machine.

The profitability in poker comes from exploiting your opponent’s mistakes, and making reads as to their style so you know what kinds of mistakes they'll make.  Letting a limper get away with seeing a cheap flop isn’t exploitation; it’s forgiveness.  Not raising here a large percentage of the time is an enormous leak, if opponents aren’t adjusting to you…and bad players don’t make adjustments.  The best approach to winning low-stakes tournaments is to stick to A-B-C poker and avoid Fancy Play Syndrome.  Where people miss the point, and therefore opportunity, is by equating all bluffs with FPS.  Running a 3-barrel bluff against someone from Brazil when you have 3000 chips and the blinds are 25/50 is FPS.  Post-flop check-raises with air on draw-heavy boards are FPS.

Identifying bluffable opponents, and then finding situations where a bluff doesn’t have to be overwhelmingly successful to be +EV, isn't fancy.  It's smart poker... at any stakes.