Bad Beats
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Something has seemed out of whack for a while. I have played well over 1 million hands, but rather than complain about a "feeling", I wanted to look at hard numbers and data. There are many things I could look at to see if different probabilities are out of whack with expectation. The very first thing I decided to look at, using my db with 236,317 tournament hands (a significant sample size), was the distribution of how many times I got dealt pocket pairs, particularlly premium pocket pairs. A pretty simple thing to analyze.
At first, I looked at the breakdown by blind-level and was a bit concerned to find that at level after level, I got dealt fewer AA and KK than any other pocket pairs. For example at the 50/100 blind level, the sample was 73,926, from which I could expect to be dealt a particular pocket pair, like AA, on average apx 336 times. The two that were farthest below expectation were AA (-16) and KK (-21). This repeated at each blind level I looked at.
So next, I aggregated and looked at all 236,317 hands together, regarless of blind level. What I found furthered my concern. Again, the least dealt pocket pair was AA (1010), followed by KK (1040), furthing the suspicion. So I ran some hard statistical analysis on this and found that on average for that sample, there is only a 2.5% chance of being dealt fewer than 1010 AA (and 97.5% chance of being dealt more). Note that this doesnt give any weight to the value of AA vs other lower pairs. The fact that this repeats itself with the other monster pair, KK, is again concerning.
I'll give a quick summary of the mathematical reasoning and tools used for review.
If we think of this as a binomial distribution problem, where success (=1) is being dealt an AA, and failure (=0) is not, we know that we have an expected probability of success in a single trial of 1/220, or .00454545..., the odds of being dealt a pocket pair. From my data, we know we had 1010 successes in 236,317 trials. After working the math on my own, I also found a caclulator online you can use by plugging in these variables: http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx You can see the conclusion is that for this sample, we would expect more AAs 97.4% of the time. I would also expect to see KK significantly more than I did. When you look at both together (use values of .009090909090909090909, 2050, and 236,317 in the online calculator), we see my distribution become even more unlikely (98.3%).
What is more concerning yet is that when I look only at the most recent 100,000 hands, the pattern exacerbates itself more dramatically.
Note that if there is rigging that damps the number of premium hands, it would be foolish to damp them to fall much more than 1 or 2 standard deviations away from the norm. So the 98.3% number I see above would be the maximum one could reasonably expect under that scenario. In other words, its the max range that remains "unprovable" due to variance.
More to come.... note that this is the very first thing I have looked at after suspecting suspicious activity. I am starting to look at other aspects that are looking troubling as well, but will post only after I work out numbers. I would like to keep this an ongoing discussion, and invite others to use their db to plug numbers into the calculator I linked to.
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... and the graph... pretty sudden change point there. Notice it is not subtle, like levelling out, but very dramatic slope change. The sudden cliff drop was from losing 16 of 17 ($25K) of the $1860 hypers, most again to bad beats, including having KK cracked all 3 times. The latest cliff dip occurred upon starting this thread and contacting stars about it. Note that the slope of the losses would be hard for even a total donkey to replicate for hypers. Mathematcially I would not even have such a steep downslope even if I played with my cards covered up and followed a super simple situational jam/fold chart that assumes you dont see your own cards! By converting chip stack amount numerals to color codes, a monkey could LITERALLY be trained to have a higer expectation than this slope. I am dead serious. Mathematically, over this span of 6000 SNGs, and given my expectation, it is statiscially extremely likely these results are due to active interference.
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... and it still continues. Lost 19 of 20 $87 hypers today vs soft competition. But let me break this down for today's hands by how the hands played out. (See the hand explanations in red below for each game).
| 212739917 |
15-Nov-09 02:28 |
NL Holdem (Sat)  |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 Me: 66 vs A6o and another A6s. The dominated A6s flops nut flush. (Dominated hand [2 outer to split pot] makes monster.) |
| 212740209 |
15-Nov-09 02:26 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 Me: AKs vs KTo. The dominated KT makes hits a KTT board for a boat. (Dominated hand makes monster) |
| 212738516 |
15-Nov-09 02:17 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72. High blinds. Lost to Oppenent's rivered set of Qs. (legit. Set) |
| 212738069 |
15-Nov-09 02:15 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 Me: A4 vs A2o. The dominated A2o flops A2x. (Dominated hand makes good - 3 outer) |
| 212736215 |
15-Nov-09 01:57 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 Me: shove AKs, called by J2s. Board comes 22 to give him trips. (Garbage hand, behind, makes monster) (The two prior hands I played I was rivered and ran into a micro-stacks quads vs my BB insta-call with A3.) |
| 212735040 |
15-Nov-09 01:50 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72. ME: Push KJs from button. SB has AJo. (Monster in blind) |
| 212735131 |
15-Nov-09 01:45 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72. ME: push 88. AK calls and hits river K. (Monster in blind) |
| 212734732 |
15-Nov-09 01:44 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72. ME: I push AK from button. BB has AA. (Monster in blind) |
| 212734699 |
15-Nov-09 01:42 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72 ME: shove A5 from button and run into AQ in BB. (Monster in blind) |
| 212733735 |
15-Nov-09 01:34 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
1/6 |
$127.28. (WTF?!) |
| 212733060 |
15-Nov-09 01:32 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72 ME: shove AKs. AQo calls, dominated, and hits Q on river. (Dominated hand makes good - 3 outer) |
| 212731861 |
15-Nov-09 01:23 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 Me. I call SB from BB with K2s due to stack sizes. He flops set. (legit. Set) |
| 212731038 |
15-Nov-09 01:09 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72. I shove A5 from SB. BB wakes up with AQ. (Monster in blind) |
| 212729857 |
15-Nov-09 01:01 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72. Me: Call with J5o vs 79o, due to blinds. He flops 2 pair and turns the full house. (Garbage hand, behind, makes monster) |
| 212729752 |
15-Nov-09 00:56 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72. ME: I shove 97 from SB due to high blinds. BB wakes up with A6. (Monster in blind) |
| 212728541 |
15-Nov-09 00:48 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72. Oppenent turns a 2-out set after I called with Ax and hit an A. (2 outer makes monster.) |
| 212727809 |
15-Nov-09 00:46 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72. ME: I shove Jx from SB vs BB during high blinds. BB wakes up with PP and turns a set. (Monster in blind) |
| 212726234 |
15-Nov-09 00:32 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 ME: shove A2 from SB. Called by 63s, who flops 6 to win. (Garbage hand, behind, makes good) |
| 212726901 |
15-Nov-09 00:31 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 ME: high blinds, forced to shove Jx from SB. BB wakes up with A. (Monster in blind) |
| 212725914 |
15-Nov-09 00:27 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72. I shove A2s from Button. BB calls with 79o and flops a 7. (Garbage hand, behind, makes good) |
| 212318941 |
13-Nov-09 16:05 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 [Only did hand write up for Nov. 15 games, but all below are the same story.] |
| 212318558 |
13-Nov-09 15:54 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 212315814 |
13-Nov-09 15:48 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 212307182 |
13-Nov-09 15:21 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 212305670 |
13-Nov-09 15:11 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
1/6 |
$127.28 |
| 212302824 |
13-Nov-09 15:01 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 210508488 |
7-Nov-09 16:05 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 210504189 |
7-Nov-09 15:59 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 210502542 |
7-Nov-09 15:48 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 210502421 |
7-Nov-09 15:39 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 210499591 |
7-Nov-09 15:31 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 210500557 |
7-Nov-09 15:29 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
1/6 |
$127.28 |
| 210497042 |
7-Nov-09 15:18 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 210493848 |
7-Nov-09 15:10 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 210492049 |
7-Nov-09 15:03 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 210493006 |
7-Nov-09 15:02 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 210241149 |
6-Nov-09 18:16 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 210018870 |
6-Nov-09 02:12 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 209716669 |
4-Nov-09 23:24 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 209717020 |
4-Nov-09 23:18 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 209715275 |
4-Nov-09 23:09 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 208153419 |
30-Oct-09 12:28 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 208151517 |
30-Oct-09 12:17 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 208150208 |
30-Oct-09 12:17 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
1/6 |
$127.28 |
| 208148776 |
30-Oct-09 12:15 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 208148797 |
30-Oct-09 12:07 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 208147172 |
30-Oct-09 12:07 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 208147208 |
30-Oct-09 12:02 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 208145792 |
30-Oct-09 12:00 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 208146191 |
30-Oct-09 11:59 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 | So for Nov 15, the final breakdown is:
Lost when way ahead or ahead: 10 (Miracle, 3 out, 3 out, 3 out, 3 out, 2 out, etc)
Monster in blind (usually with me already holding an A and correctly jamming in late pos): 7 (AJ, AA, AQ, AQ, PP, Ax)
Outright beats: 2 (maybe 3)
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Honestly sounds like me I almost continuesless get it in good then get smashed by dominated garbage hands. I went though my last 50 pocket pairs and I won about 10. 7 of the 10 being no call preflop like wtf? my pocket pairs never hold up and my overcards never hit. They say you run bad but not for 3 years or so like me. It is bullshit
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you need better game selection, and clearly you need to change how you play if u keep losing like this. I used to be a Sitngo grinder, and quit because i couldnt play the game i wanted to play to succeed and the varience was horrendous (hundreds of bad beats). So i switched to cash games and play a very aggresive style. I'm a winning player, and i don't even need premium hands to win.
Open up your game more, possible move down in limits, and play some other game.
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A month later, nothing has changed. After playing a MTT and getting in with an Ace six times, having my oppenent dominated all 6 times, and losing all 6 times, 4 of which were to runner runner double gutshot straights, I had a bad feeling. Moving over to the SNGs, here are the results... again, pay attention to my remarks of how the knockout / crippling hand occurred. I lost won just 5 of 44 played today, losing almost entirely to bad beats. There was a stretch of about 15 times in a row where I got in with an A vs. a dominated A, and the dominated A hit the 3 outer or miracle runner runner draws.
| 217626582 |
30-Nov-09 21:55 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72. My KT vs 9To. His dominated hand hits 3 outer. |
| 217626566 |
30-Nov-09 21:51 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72. My A9s vs A7o. His dominated hand hits two 7s for trips. |
| 217626538 |
30-Nov-09 21:44 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72. A7 vs A8. I flop my kicker, but he makes trips, hitting his kicker twice. |
| 217626519 |
30-Nov-09 21:44 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72. IM in BB, high blinds. Button shoves, I call with Ax. He has monster (KK). |
| 217624358 |
30-Nov-09 21:39 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72. I have 88 in BB. Cutoff shoves, I call. He has monster (KK). |
| 217625939 |
30-Nov-09 21:38 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72. Im in cutoff with A6 and shove. Get called poorly by KJ at low (Level 1) blinds. J comes on river. I get in good and lose to his bad call. |
| 217623751 |
30-Nov-09 21:28 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72. I shove on button with 99. Get called by monster (AA). |
| 217624273 |
30-Nov-09 21:27 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72. Me: A7 vs. A6o. I'm in good. I flop a 7. He is dominated and not suited and dead to runner runner, but hits his runner runner flush. Prior to this, the guy survives 6 all-ins from a microstack vs 2 of us checking him down, in behind on most. Me: A9o vs. J5o. He makes a full boat. Hand before that, i flopped a pair, he was dominated and dead to 3 outs, the board then makes 2 pair to counterfit mine and he splits pot to stay alive. He says alive like this 6 times until i finally get knocked out vs a dominated hand via runner runner flush. |
| 217623216 |
30-Nov-09 21:24 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
1/6 |
$127.28 |
| 217621422 |
30-Nov-09 21:21 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72. Me: A9 vs 72s. I'm in good. He hits a 2 to win. Prior to that, I have JJ in SB. I call button who had monster (KK). Prior: Me: KJs vs 34o. I'm in good. He flops the nut straight. |
| 217622337 |
30-Nov-09 21:21 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72. Me: AT vs K3o. I'm in good. He flops a K to win. Prior: Me. 44 vs. K7o. I'm in good. He rivers a 7 to win. |
| 217622004 |
30-Nov-09 21:18 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72. With insta-call odds, I call in BB with JT vs KQ and lose (legit beat). |
| 217621875 |
30-Nov-09 21:16 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217621837 |
30-Nov-09 21:13 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217621903 |
30-Nov-09 21:13 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72. I shove with A6 from cutoff with level 1 blinds, and get called (badly) by 33. He makes a monster (full house) and I lose race. |
| 217621408 |
30-Nov-09 21:11 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72. ME: KQs vs. J9s. I'm in good. I hit my Q. But he then makes 2 pair and I lose. Later, Blind vs. Blind, I ran into monster (KK). |
| 217621786 |
30-Nov-09 21:10 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72. Me: A6 vs KJ. I'm in good. I make a straght. He makes a higher straight and I lose. |
| 217620769 |
30-Nov-09 21:09 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72. Short-stacked, I call with T8 vs K4o. He wins. |
| 217619839 |
30-Nov-09 21:06 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72. High blinds. Insta-call stacked in BB, I call. Me: J7 vs 55 (race). I lose. Prior: Me: KQ vs JJ. I flop Q. He is dead to 2 outs and hits one on the turn. I lose. |
| 217613848 |
30-Nov-09 21:04 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72. [Hand history file cuts off here at hand 200.] |
| 217618029 |
30-Nov-09 20:58 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
1/6 |
$127.28 |
| 217618108 |
30-Nov-09 20:54 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217618008 |
30-Nov-09 20:52 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
1/6 |
$127.28 |
| 217617957 |
30-Nov-09 20:52 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217617978 |
30-Nov-09 20:51 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
1/6 |
$127.28 |
| 217617935 |
30-Nov-09 20:48 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217616677 |
30-Nov-09 20:46 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217617649 |
30-Nov-09 20:46 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 217616407 |
30-Nov-09 20:45 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217615901 |
30-Nov-09 20:42 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 217615774 |
30-Nov-09 20:41 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217615977 |
30-Nov-09 20:39 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217615879 |
30-Nov-09 20:38 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217615417 |
30-Nov-09 20:37 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217615742 |
30-Nov-09 20:36 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 217615456 |
30-Nov-09 20:34 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217614416 |
30-Nov-09 20:33 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217589851 |
30-Nov-09 18:40 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
1/6 |
$127.28 |
| 217513334 |
30-Nov-09 14:57 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217513405 |
30-Nov-09 14:56 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
4/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217507642 |
30-Nov-09 14:55 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217513352 |
30-Nov-09 14:54 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
5/6 |
-$87.72 |
| 217515016 |
30-Nov-09 14:53 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
3/6 |
-$1.72 |
| 217503946 |
30-Nov-09 14:48 |
NL Holdem (Sat) |
$86 |
6/6 |
-$87.72 |
Pretty typical results.
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God this is sickening. Any chance you can just completely leave Pokerstars for a while? Perhaps if they lose your action during a lengthy hiatus, your results would change upon return? I would send them a note telling them that you are cutting back on Stars as well.
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It is rigged a2z1to3 no doubt about it. People that flame about it not being rigged probably have a multiaccounting interest or in some way affiliated with the site. When I get time I will post my 500K + hands and they are not just tourney hands. I see exactly the same crap that happens in tournaments and SNG's as what u have posted. Cash games are just as obvious and its every game. Cannot count how many times in NL how a low pair hits a set 7 out of 10 times against an AA or KK however AA or KK rarely hit their sets. In PLO8 you have the nut low/hi hand only to see the flush card hit the turn and the 2 hit the river to counterfeit. In Razz start out with A235 and all face cards hit while some tard is staying in with a 10 low. On and on and on, etc. I told stars to f off and withdrew all my funds last week. There are 3 trends I have noticed that seems to encourage action:
1) If you are multitabling say over 4 NL tables and are about to end your session, especially if you are up by 50BB. If you unclick the "post blind button" getting ready to sit out and leave the site will deal the premium PP and crack it to some BS ecnouraging u to stay longer and recover your losses.
2) If you are close to a pending bonus. See how many bad beats start to increase especially if the bonus is in the $300-$600 range.
3) IF you are about 500FPP's away from moving up in Star status (silver, gold, platinum, etc.)
Refer to this thread I posted about a week ago..
http://www.pocketfives.com/poker-forums/12/done-with-riggedstars-er-pokerstars-and-probably-on-line-poker-in-general-4917980
These 2 hands happened within 15 minutes of each other exactly the same way to induce action when the bonus was about to be cleared.
The fact that the moderators immediately move these threads over to this forum from the main board and Stars threatens to remove your chat if you talk about it at the table fuels the fire that something is not right behind the scenes.
If Absolute poker and Ultimate poker can have cheating scandals Stars sure as heck can be vulnerable to it too.
I love when I would send an e-mail questioning it they would send an automated reply saying it isnt without any numbers to back it up and no shills, employees, etc. They sponsor pros and how the heck do they know an employee doesnt have a screen name and fires up games after work?
I feel better now but yes it isnt on a level and it has nothing to do with variance or number of hands per hour it is.
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i know this is a very small sample size but here are my results over the last 41k hands. look normal to me but wtf do i know.
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# of times |
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dealt out of |
dealt % out |
% of times |
$ amount |
| Hand |
40995 hands |
of 40995 hands |
won with hand |
lost or won |
| 22 |
171 |
0.42% |
22.2 |
$49,591.00 |
| 33 |
177 |
0.43% |
20.3 |
$2,362.00 |
| 44 |
165 |
0.40% |
28.5 |
($14,891.00) |
| 55 |
165 |
0.40% |
32.7 |
($48,157.00) |
| 66 |
170 |
0.41% |
34.1 |
($42,918.00) |
| 77 |
203 |
0.50% |
43.8 |
$104,798.00 |
| 88 |
176 |
0.43% |
47.7 |
$14,530.00 |
| 99 |
170 |
0.41% |
55.3 |
$55,650.00 |
| TT |
178 |
0.43% |
61.2 |
($27,054.00) |
| JJ |
184 |
0.45% |
70.1 |
$45,511.00 |
| QQ |
191 |
0.47% |
70.2 |
$234,758.00 |
| KK |
190 |
0.46% |
80.5 |
$265,468.00 |
| AA |
191 |
0.47% |
86.4 |
$287,736.00 |
| AKs |
102 |
0.25% |
72.5 |
$173,393.00 |
| AKo |
338 |
0.82% |
68.9 |
$59,812.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
| total hands |
40995 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 sey_when: | |
lol, that happens to me in 85% of my tourneys and I have a huge hand beat and it is always on the river.
Like this????? I have this happen so often I am more surprised when it does not. Rigged or not it sure is getting old...Last night I was knocked out by 88 with a 8 on the river when I had KK
Tonight this...
Full Tilt Poker Game #16485534446: $12,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) (121844341), Table 1 - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:18:28 ET - 2009/12/02
Seat 1: checkfoldimo (9,345)
Seat 2: archerace7 (8,169)
Seat 3: dmb8109 (6,050)
Seat 4: timntools (2,500)
Seat 5: Giselle90 (7,910)
Seat 6: sly278 (16,785)
archerace7 posts the small blind of 80
dmb8109 posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to archerace7 [8c 8d]
timntools folds
Giselle90 folds
sly278 raises to 480
checkfoldimo folds
archerace7 calls 400
dmb8109 calls 320
*** FLOP *** [8h Tc 6h]
archerace7 bets 7,689, and is all in
dmb8109 folds
sly278 calls 7,689
archerace7 shows [8c 8d]
nolansdaddy124 (Observer): hey
sly278 shows [Jc Js]
*** TURN *** [8h Tc 6h] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [8h Tc 6h Kc] [Jd]
archerace7 shows three of a kind, Eights
sly278 shows three of a kind, Jacks
sly278 wins the pot (16,818) with three of a kind, Jacks
archerace7 stands up
checkfoldimo stands up
dmb8109 stands up
timntools stands up
Giselle90 stands up
sly278 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 16,818 | Rake 0
Board: [8h Tc 6h Kc Jd]
Seat 1: checkfoldimo (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: archerace7 (small blind) showed [8c 8d] and lost with three of a kind, Eights
Seat 3: dmb8109 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: timntools didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Giselle90 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: sly278 showed [Jc Js] and won (16,818) with three of a kind, Jacks
|
|
|
| bobhica_10: | |
i know this is a very small sample size but here are my results over the last 41k hands. look normal to me but wtf do i know.
|
# of times |
|
|
|
|
dealt out of |
dealt % out |
% of times |
$ amount |
| Hand |
40995 hands |
of 40995 hands |
won with hand |
lost or won |
| 22 |
171 |
0.42% |
22.2 |
$49,591.00 |
| 33 |
177 |
0.43% |
20.3 |
$2,362.00 |
| 44 |
165 |
0.40% |
28.5 |
($14,891.00) |
| 55 |
165 |
0.40% |
32.7 |
($48,157.00) |
| 66 |
170 |
0.41% |
34.1 |
($42,918.00) |
| 77 |
203 |
0.50% |
43.8 |
$104,798.00 |
| 88 |
176 |
0.43% |
47.7 |
$14,530.00 |
| 99 |
170 |
0.41% |
55.3 |
$55,650.00 |
| TT |
178 |
0.43% |
61.2 |
($27,054.00) |
| JJ |
184 |
0.45% |
70.1 |
$45,511.00 |
| QQ |
191 |
0.47% |
70.2 |
$234,758.00 |
| KK |
190 |
0.46% |
80.5 |
$265,468.00 |
| AA |
191 |
0.47% |
86.4 |
$287,736.00 |
| AKs |
102 |
0.25% |
72.5 |
$173,393.00 |
| AKo |
338 |
0.82% |
68.9 |
$59,812.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
| total hands |
40995 |
|
|
|
Fold pp 4-6's in my opinion.
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Clearly you are convinced that stars is rigged. If that's the case I don't understand why you choose to keep playing there. Judging from your posts in this forum and your "rigged" streak you are very obviously tilting which won't help anything.
But seriously, if it is rigged you are throwing away thousands of dollars convincing yourself that you are correct... go play another site or hell go to a casino and play some live cards.
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