Poker Discussion
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
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1 to the money with 1 particularly low stack and A's Brand plays standard chip leader push, call or fold?
PokerStars Game #22833229754: Tournament #126417392, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2008/12/12 0:34:31 GMT [2008/12/11 19:34:31 ET]
Table '126417392 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Sheriff_20 (12145 in chips)
Seat 2: kurt23x (5905 in chips)
Seat 3: maximum123 (6606 in chips)
Seat 4: jennyfuchs (1815 in chips)
Seat 5: A's Brand (15530 in chips)
Seat 6: DNA2RNA (7724 in chips)
Seat 8: newhope2005 (11480 in chips)
Seat 9: idem89 (6295 in chips)
Sheriff_20: posts the ante 75
kurt23x: posts the ante 75
maximum123: posts the ante 75
jennyfuchs: posts the ante 75
A's Brand: posts the ante 75
DNA2RNA: posts the ante 75
newhope2005: posts the ante 75
idem89: posts the ante 75
DNA2RNA: posts small blind 600
newhope2005: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to newhope2005 [Ah Ks]
idem89: folds
Sheriff_20: folds
kurt23x: folds
maximum123: folds
jennyfuchs: folds
A's Brand: raises 14255 to 15455 and is all-in
DNA2RNA: folds
newhope2005: ??
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nw25th
(Korea, Republic of)
762
Posts.
Joined
06-25-2007.
12-11-2008 9:17 PM
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In reply to
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Playing to win: Call
Playing to cash: Fold
Depends on you!
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call call call call, then win the tourney
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i snap fwiw with your stack, really don't see u being worse than coinflip and aq can be in range too
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edit: that came off rude and apparently i'm wrong. so i apologize sir
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fly44
(United States)
1,154
Posts.
Joined
05-29-2008.
12-11-2008 9:32 PM
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In reply to
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SNG Wizard says fold even if he is pushing ATC so I guess it is a fold.
But before I ran it I would have said call...guess my ICM skills are lacking.
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He's definitely shoving any two or close to it.
http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx <<Answer can be derived from here
If you fold, your equity is $362.63.
If you call, and lose, your equity is $0.
If you win, your equity is $535.15.
Therefore, your must win 362.63/535.15 = 67.76% of the time, to profit from calling.
Assuming he is on any two (a reasonable assumption, you fall 2% short of what you need, mathwise.
| Hand |
Pot equity |
Wins |
Ties |
| AKo |
65.32% |
16,227,502,536 |
428,254,068 |
| Random hand |
34.68% |
8,515,112,196 |
428,254,068 |
Even if he's not on quite any two, that fact doesn't change much. AKo pretty much holds it's value against tighter ranges:
| Hand |
Pot equity |
Wins |
Ties |
| AKo |
64.53% |
7,325,182,356 |
359,221,848 |
| Top 50% of all hands |
35.47% |
3,945,564,564 |
359,221,848 |
So mathematically, this is a fold by 2-3%.
The intangibles that ICM does not account for change things a bit:
- If you win this hand, your true equity might be greater than $535.15, because you'll have the added advantage of being in control and able to bully.
- If you fold, your true equity might be smaller then $362.63 because A's will continue to play hard on your BB.
Both of those intangibles for me combined are enough to switch this to a call.
In any event, calling and folding have about the same EV, in the long run.
I call, but I wouldn't hate a fold here.
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That sums it up. Jen's the best
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I folded and finished second.
Im almost certainly going to be vs anything here as he is quite right to push atc, but AK can be easily easily cracked as its about 67% vs atc (i think), 2 wins out of 3 is not good enough for me where im easily pushing high in the money without having to win this.
I thought the ICM would be borderline here which only encourages me even more to fold because of the other circumstances.
Thanks for your input though most of you liked the call!
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I snap. I gain so much equity from being able to crush the bubble it's silly. You're really not in a great spot chip-wise compared to the other stacks, I'm surprised the ICM is that close tbh.
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ICM-wise I would have assumed this was a fold. I am fairly certain I fold here at any rate. I cry first though.
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