Poker Discussion Post

I call. Since you have 10 blinds he is pushing incredibly wide... In his spot I push q6+,k6+any ace. With that said KJ should have him beat a fair number of times.

You're right, he SHOULD be pushing incredibly wide. However, you need to note what I said about his tendencies during the FT; this particular player has NOT been pushing incredibly wide, and in fact had given me at least 5 walks during 3-handed play. Just some pertinent info to consider

I don't know the math and don't use pokerstove or anything.  Call me lazy but I like to do my own math and play more by feel.  So how does your KJ play against his shoving range here?  I would probably estimate based on your info that I was likely close to 50% or so to win the hand.  Maybe 45%.  So is it worth it to take a flip here?  If you lose it's 3rd place money.  If you win it's very likely 1st place money but you would still have some work to do.  If you fold, you are still in decent shape and second in chips.

I would lean toward a fold and look to abuse the weaker player long enough to get heads up with browsef.  Whether that is the best EV decision I'm not sure.

well if your thinking about folding KJ he should be shoving atc, gotta call imo despite context still should be ahead of his range though.

If you think you can continue to take advantage of hedwig by shoving atc into him then I think you can fold here.  I still have a really hard time letting this go because he knows that you know that he knows that you know...and you are also in 2nd place right now so he could be shoving wider at this point in time because of the stack size between you and hedwig.  I still really don't think I'm folding tbh...I also only play STTs

fold skitz, continue to run him over and look for a better spot, hes a nit, he might not be shoving as wide as you imagine.

Something I just thought of:

It's not uncommon for players to give walks to an aggressive short stack because they expect that they are going to get called very very wide.  browsef may have been giving you those walks under that pretense as you were shoving every hand, he expected to be called therefore he gave you a walk.

Now that you have more chips and actually have a decent lead over the new short stack, I can see browsef opening up his shoving range quite a bit more against you.

That said, I'm still folding in this spot. LOL.

I think this is a fold. Just without hedwig2 it is close. browsef has to be shoving 67.7 for it to be a call and from what you have said, I don't think he is shoving that wide. With hedwig2 serving as your funnel, I think its a clear fold. 

This is actually a very sick situation that a true analysis would help with.  I think that this is a cut and dry call.  ICM thinks I'm full of shit.  Let me explain....

Because OP is always very helpful in his posts, and tries to help others whenever he can, I'm going to go the extra mile here.  I believe that ICM breaks down in this problem because all of the intangibles that ICM doesn't account for lead to a call.  I'll take this time answer this one and show you how to answer it for yourself next time too, step by step, looking at it from two different angles, and an unorthodox thought process:

First of all, this is not an any two spot by the SB...here is the Nash Equilibrium for this spot:

I have zero clue about icm shit or math in general related to poker. Jenifear knows her shit,  (and on a side note:  she is top top when it comes to worth worthwhile contributers on this site)

I dont mind saying I think this could be a bit player dependant for me.  Obv I play much lower stakes.  If this is the first couple hands of three handed play I will sometimes fold this.  If he has even shoved once into my bb like this , or if I would of seen him shove this deep on the other guys blind, I would call all day.

Jennifear:

This is actually a very sick situation that a true analysis would help with.  I think that this is a cut and dry call.  ICM thinks I'm full of shit.  Let me explain....

Because OP is always very helpful in his posts, and tries to help others whenever he can, I'm going to go the extra mile here.  I believe that ICM breaks down in this problem because all of the intangibles that ICM doesn't account for lead to a call.  I'll take this time answer this one and show you how to answer it for yourself next time too, step by step, looking at it from two different angles, and an unorthodox thought process:

First of all, this is not an any two spot by the SB...here is the Nash Equilibrium for this spot:

SB			87.3%, 22+ Jx+ T2s+ T3o+ 92s+ 95o+ 82s+ 84o+ 72s+ 74o+ 62s+ 64o+ 52s+ 53o+ 42s+ 32s <<what he should be shoving
	BB		19.9%, 55+ A3s+ A7o+ K8s+ KTo+ QTs+ QJo <<what you should be calling IF he is shoving 87.3%.

Now that that's out of the way, let's analyze.

Prizes are 767.26, 532.13, 408.37

Angle #1:  Using ICM:

Should you call, and lose, you have $408.37.

Should you call, and win, your equity is $676.48.

Player	Chips	Prob 1st	Prob 2nd	Prob 3rd	Equity
Hero	43888	0.6491	0.2840	0.0669	$676.48
Browsef	7956	0.1177	0.2535	0.6289	$481.97
Hedwig2	15768	0.2332	0.4625	0.3043	$549.31

Therefore, if you win, that's a gain of $266.09 compared to losing.

Should you fold, your equity is $556.99.

Player	Chips	Prob 1st	Prob 2nd	Prob 3rd	Equity
Hero	19744	0.2925	0.3526	0.3549	$556.99
Browsef	31988	0.4739	0.3404	0.1857	$620.57
Hedwig2	15768	0.2336	0.3070	0.4594	$530.20

Since you risk $148.62 for a possible gain of $117.47, you must win this hand:

148.62/(148.62+117.47)  or 148.62/266.09 = 56% of the time.

Plug in what you think his range is to get your best calling range:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/holdemOracle.jsp?compute=y&b=&h=BrowsefsRange&e=56

If you think that Browsef is shoving at least 61% of the time here, this is a call.  Based on your post, it seems very close.

Therefore call=fold in this situation.

But....hold the phones!  There's more to this one than meets the eye.

Angle #2:  Using ICM and also intangibles that ICM does not account for.

Should you call, and lose, you have $408.37.

Should you call, and win, your equity (on paper) is $676.48.

Player	Chips	Prob 1st	Prob 2nd	Prob 3rd	Equity
Hero	43888	0.6491	0.2840	0.0669	$676.48
Browsef	7956	0.1177	0.2535	0.6289	$481.97
Hedwig2	15768	0.2332	0.4625	0.3043	$549.31

However, that assumes that all players play equally.  With the 15768 stack on your left, should you call and win, you may have the opportunity to pick on the middle stack and therefore your true equity might be as high as $690 here.

Therefore, if you win, that's a gain of $282 compared to losing.

Should you fold, your equity (on paper) is $556.99.

Player	Chips	Prob 1st	Prob 2nd	Prob 3rd	Equity
Hero	19744	0.2925	0.3526	0.3549	$556.99
Browsef	31988	0.4739	0.3404	0.1857	$620.57
Hedwig2	15768	0.2336	0.3070	0.4594	$530.20

However, that also assumes all players play equally.  Since you are in second, Browsef will have further opportunities to assault your blinds.  Because of this, his true equity is greater than $620.57, and some of that extra equity is coming from you.  You can safely assume that your true equity is more like $549 in this scenario. 

Therefore, by calling, your risk is a little less than ICM suggests it is, only about $141.

Since you risk $141 for a possible gain of $141, you must win this hand:

141/(141+141)  or 141/282 = 1/2 = 50% of the time.

Plug in whatever you think his range is in here, and see what your calling range should be:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/holdemOracle.jsp?compute=y&b=&h=BrowsefsRange&e=50

In my opinion, this is a call, so long as you think he is shoving 38%+ of all hands, which, even by the thoughts expressed in your OP, he clearly is.  Therefore, I call!

ICM has it's limitations and this specific situation shows that we should call wider than ICM suggests, because of two major intangibles and one minor one:

- If we win, we are the big stack and we can abuse others.  This leans us towards call.
- If we fold, the big stack can continue to abuse us.  This leans us towards call.
- If we call, it might be seen as us calling too wide and prevent future pushes from the SB (spite call).  This leans us towards call.

All the intangibles lead one way in this case, and that's why I am thrilled to call with KJo!

More on intangibles that ICM does not account for can be found in this post:

http://www.pocketfives.com/poker-forums/7/ICM-_2D00_--advice-pls-3006504/p/3006539#3006539

Hope that helps!

Jen

browsef is a regular, knows what he is doing, and is on a quite wide range

how can you even think of folding here bvb 3 handed against someone halfway competent? 

How, after all the great posts above and context surrounding the hand, can that be all you have to say? Your response is the only one in this thread that's really lacking support and thought :(