Poker Discussion Post

You got your money in good. If you don't post the results I'm sure Jennifear or another sng expert will tell you the correct strategical play. By showing the results this looks very much like a bad beat.

 at first glance i'd fold

ez fold

 yea its definitely a fold

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=300&sb=150&ante=25&structure=0.5%2C+0.5&s1=4025&s2=5870&s3=3605&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=

can you explain a little more thoroughly please? i understand sng strategy to a point that i should be shoving every hand cuz i have the chip lead, blah blah. but i feel like the other 2 players are even and are both playing to get in the top 2 spots so they arent gonna like just be autofolding k hi, etc even if im jus shoving every hand. maybe my reasoning is extremely flawed, im not sure. a more in depth explanatio would help, ty.

snapfold

ucftennis12:

can you explain a little more thoroughly please? i understand sng strategy to a point that i should be shoving every hand cuz i have the chip lead, blah blah. but i feel like the other 2 players are even and are both playing to get in the top 2 spots so they arent gonna like just be autofolding k hi, etc even if im jus shoving every hand. maybe my reasoning is extremely flawed, im not sure. a more in depth explanatio would help, ty.

Let's say hypothetically the stacks were all exactly even. In this case, everyone would have exactly 1/3rd equity in the prize pool. If you called and won here, you would not get 2/3rds the equity in the prize pool; instead, you would get 1/2, a gain of 1/6th. If you called and lost, you would lose 1/3rd of the prize pool. Thus, you need at least a 66% edge over an opponent's range (before correcting for pot odds) to make a call if the stacks are even. While you get a little more leeway for not losing 100% of your equity when you call, A8o is still only 60% against a random hand.

I'm too lazy to run the hard math, but if ispender is pushing 100% of hands here, this is probably close. If he's pushing 50% of hands (this includes gems like K5o and J4s), it's a fold. So unless you have a good reason to suspect this player is a complete moron, fold.

Should you decide to fold:

thanks

stevie444:

snapfold