Poker Discussion
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
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Full Tilt Poker Game #xxxxxxxx: $33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo) , Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:02:58 ET - 2008/08/27
Seat 3: XXXXXXXXX (5,040)
Seat 5: XXXXXXXXXXX (240)
Seat 6: XXXXXXXXX (4,730)
Seat 8: andressoprano (3,490)
andressoprano posts the small blind of 150
XXXXXXXXX posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to andressoprano [Qc Qs)
XXXXXXXXX folds
XXXXXXXXXraises to 4,730, and is all in
andressoprano...........
I'd like to hear different opinions about what to do in this spot. Villain does not have a huge sample, so his sharkscope is meaningless here. But after playing a few sng's with him I can tell he knows what he's doing. I also assume he knows that I know what I'm doing.
With this in mind, there's two things pretty clear :
A : He knows he can shove super light, since the shortie has already folded, with less than 1 BB left.
B: I KNOW I'm ahead of his range, so this is not a question about what his holding can be. It is about taking the risk, or pass the possible double up in order to lock the cash.
What I'm looking for are opinions and/or thoughts about what you guys would do , and why. Also consider this factor before posting : We are playing 6 tables, so there is no way we can check this hand in the ICM calculator before making a decission. This is either an insta fold or call, but we have to have the answer in our minds before clicking the button.
Sooooooooooo, what would you do.............
PS: I erased the tournament #, and villain's names, so nobody can track it down and find out what happened.
Edit : Here are the results
Full Tilt Poker Game #7823255092: $33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo) (59484309), Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:02:58 ET - 2008/08/27
Seat 3: bigsidius (5,040)
Seat 5: happygabita (240)
Seat 6: lolligoll (4,730)
Seat 8: andressoprano (3,490)
andressoprano posts the small blind of 150
bigsidius posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to andressoprano [Qc Qs]
happygabita folds
lolligoll has 15 seconds left to act
lolligoll raises to 4,730, and is all in
andressoprano calls 3,340, and is all in
bigsidius folds
lolligoll shows [Ac Ts]
andressoprano shows [Qc Qs]
Uncalled bet of 1,240 returned to lolligoll
*** FLOP *** [Ks 8c 6c]
*** TURN *** [Ks 8c 6c] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [Ks 8c 6c 2c] [Ah]
lolligoll shows a pair of Aces
andressoprano shows a pair of Queens
lolligoll wins the pot (7,280) with a pair of Aces
andressoprano stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7,280 | Rake 0
Board: [Ks 8c 6c 2c Ah]
Seat 3: bigsidius (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: happygabita didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: lolligoll (button) showed [Ac Ts] and won (7,280) with a pair of Aces
Seat 8: andressoprano (small blind) showed [Qc Qs] and lost with a pair of Queens
I snap called. The shortie took a few seconds before folding, and during that time I decided what I was gonna do in case "lolligoll" shoved. I would've folded JJ/ AKs with no hesitation.
I agree on QQ been the button of my range.
The outcome of the hand is irrelevant. I think calling was the right play. Winning the hand would've put me in great position to win the tournament, which would happen more than the 53% the math says. Like Jen said, the maths don't account for the good or bad use you do to your chips.
Thanks everybody for the inputs. It was a very interesting discussion.
EDIT2 : Like many said, the fact that villain was a decent player makes this an easier call. AT was actually a stronger hand than what I was expecting. I'd shove close to anything here.
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 AFink93: | |
So in review.. When someone shoves like 90BB's on you your supposed to snap call with 99 according to the math.. Yet your supposed to fold QQ 4 handed to one shove in a turbo? Laughable.
I'm glad you had some fun, but people is still discussing what the best move can be, in a 100% different situation than the one you are referring to.
Thanks for your valuable input tho.
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Andres you know i'm new to ICM and it's me who asks you for advice so it's a bit strage for me to respond BUT !
When he sees shorty folding, wouldn't he shove almost ANY two??
You gotta get those Queens in there !!
If I sent this to you for advice I think you would say 'shove'.
Arthur.
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ahhh so this is why i suck at sngs
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| AFink93: | |
So in review.. When someone shoves like 90BB's on you your supposed to snap call with 99 according to the math.. Yet your supposed to fold QQ 4 handed to one shove in a turbo? Laughable.
Do you really not understand the difference between an MTT and the bubble in a SNG? These are vastly different situations and require vastly different strategies.
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As has been stated already, its a (close) call on the maths.....I don't think I could bring myself to fold QQ to an aggro raiser here.
If he knocks you out, well you said you've got another 5 on the go....
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What a spot!
I think that a lot of people in the shover's shoes are not shoving KK+ here, and rather just raising it.
Also, ICM does not properly account for the equity you gain if you win.
If you win:
| Player |
Chips |
Prob 1st |
Prob 2nd |
Prob 3rd |
Equity |
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Hero |
7280.000000 |
0.5393 |
0.3561 |
0.0982 |
$117.64 |
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Player 2 |
4740.000000 |
0.3511 |
0.4528 |
0.1798 |
$103.17 |
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Player 3 |
1240.000000 |
0.0919 |
0.1589 |
0.5974 |
$63.28 |
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Player 4 |
240.000000 |
0.0178 |
0.0322 |
0.1245 |
$12.91 |
... I think that your TRUE equity is greater than $117.64 here, because of your ability to abuse the bubble, and the Nash equation won't account for that.
That puts a spin on my decision towards "call".
QQ is the worst hand that I would call with.
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| Mkind16: | |
wwasd
Which stands for?
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| andressoprano: | |
| Mkind16: | |
wwasd
Which stands for?
what would andres soprano do, obv
i lol'ed a bit
ima type up my opinion here in a jiffy (and on an unrelated note, isn't a jiffy like 1/one millionth a sec or some shit like that???)
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| AbnormalQ: | |
| andressoprano: | |
| Mkind16: | |
wwasd
Which stands for?
what would andres soprano do, obv i lol'ed a bit ima type up my opinion here in a jiffy (and on an unrelated note, isn't a jiffy like 1/one millionth a sec or some shit like that???)
LMAO AB
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| WarpedWorld: | |
Fold.
This is a SNG, aim to cash, rather than the tournament mantra of going for the win. Difference between 1st to 3rd isn't that big.
The shover has you covered as well as the stack behind you. Plus there's an extremely short stack going to be blinded out soon. No point in risking your chips here.
loool you serious in saying that? 112.50 for 1st and 23.40 for 3rd is almost 3 buy in's, which is standard for all 9 man sng's.. to say that the difference between 1st to 3rd isn't that big is ridiculous!
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I haven't read most of the Answers, so sorry if this sounds like a repeat.
I think if you feel you have a LARGE edge against the other two stacks then maybe you could muck this hand. If you feel like its an even contest then i call here 100% of the time in a Turbo. I assume U play tons of these and are not desperat for a min cash. How often in a Turbo do U get a chance to get all your chips in with QQ+. FTW
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Would definitely call here unless I had some indepth knowledge about this player and his tendencies that meant he didn't know about bubble play
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| andressoprano: | |
Full Tilt Poker Game #xxxxxxxx: $33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo) , Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:02:58 ET - 2008/08/27
Seat 3: XXXXXXXXX (5,040)
Seat 5: XXXXXXXXXXX (240)
Seat 6: XXXXXXXXX (4,730)
Seat 8: andressoprano (3,490)
andressoprano posts the small blind of 150
XXXXXXXXX posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to andressoprano [Qc Qs)
XXXXXXXXX folds
XXXXXXXXXraises to 4,730, and is all in
andressoprano...........
I'd like to hear different opinions about what to do in this spot. Villain does not have a huge sample, so his sharkscope is meaningless here. But after playing a few sng's with him I can tell he knows what he's doing. I also assume he knows that I know what I'm doing.
With this in mind, there's two things pretty clear :
A : He knows he can shove super light, since the shortie has already folded, with less than 1 BB left.
B: I KNOW I'm ahead of his range, so this is not a question about what his holding can be. It is about taking the risk, or pass the possible double up in order to lock the cash.
What I'm looking for are opinions and/or thoughts about what you guys would do , and why. Also consider this factor before posting : We are playing 6 tables, so there is no way we can check this hand in the ICM calculator before making a decission. This is either an insta fold or call, but we have to have the answer in our minds before clicking the button.
Sooooooooooo, what would you do............. PS: I erased the tournament #, and villain's names, so nobody can track it down and find out what happened.
Call and Win
Player 1
240.000000 0.0178 0.0322 0.1245 $12.91
Player 2
1240.000000 0.0919 0.1589 0.5974 $63.28
Hero
7280.000000 0.5393 0.3561 0.0982 $117.64
Player 4
4740.000000 0.3511 0.4528 0.1798 $103.17
Call and Lose
Hero's Equity = 0
Fold
Player 1
240.000000 0.0178 0.0265 0.0531 $8.16
Player 2
5180.000000 0.3837 0.3407 0.2534 $102.39
Player 3
3340.000000 0.2474 0.2924 0.4114 $87.23
Player 4
4740.000000 0.3511 0.3404 0.2822 $99.23
So, you are risking 87.23 in Equity to gain 117.64 - 87.23 = 30.41
87.23/117.64 = 74.1%
So our QQ needs to scoop this pot 74% of the time vs. the villains range for us to long term profit from the call....
If we figure that dude knows a thing ot two about what's up here and shoves wide this is a call
QQ = 74.9% to win vs. top 50 holdings...and 73.5% vs. top 40 and 72.4% vs. top 30
JJ = 71.2% to win vs. top 50
If we know that dude is shoving atc, tt and jj could be considered, (jj = 77% and tt = 74.8% atc)
But, given your description of villain, I would surmise he ain't THAT loose...
So, yeah QQ def. the bottom of my range, and I call...
------------
K, this took me forever to type, as my little baby girl, barely two weeks old needing feeding and changing (and my God did she need changing...not to be too graphic, but while I was feeding her, it sounded as though a locomotive charged out of her arse!!!)
She kept me up until 5AM last night, and looks like more of the same tonight. I got the night duty too, as wifey has nursing school in the morning....
Gonna have some fun, playing, coo-cooing etc. tonight, photgraphing (lol, I'm a nerd - she is making all these adorable faces and laughing and shyte, so I am doing a little montage called "faces of adelaide"...Weeeeee
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| AFink93: | |
Im not folding ever.. You cant quote me ICM all you want. Still not folding QQ in this spot ever ever ever ever..
i agree im never folding here....
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