Poker Discussion
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
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PokerStars Game #21228316040: Tournament #114427550, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2008/10/15 21:12:37 ET
Table '114427550 5' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: StaxXL (3070 in chips)
Seat 3: Giant_Green (7720 in chips)
Seat 4: alesanre (7928 in chips)
Seat 5: fishilicious (1970 in chips)
Seat 6: FROGGERT (17090 in chips)
Seat 7: banty (13624 in chips)
Seat 8: rampage7777 (14378 in chips)
Seat 9: peirao (1720 in chips)
StaxXL: posts the ante 75
Giant_Green: posts the ante 75
alesanre: posts the ante 75
fishilicious: posts the ante 75
FROGGERT: posts the ante 75
banty: posts the ante 75
rampage7777: posts the ante 75
peirao: posts the ante 75
StaxXL: posts small blind 600
Giant_Green: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to StaxXL [6d 6c]
alesanre: folds
fishilicious: folds
FROGGERT: folds
banty: folds
rampage7777: raises 12000 to 13200
peirao: folds
StaxXL: folds
Giant_Green: folds
Uncalled bet (12000) returned to rampage7777
rampage7777 collected 3600 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3600 | Rake 0
Seat 1: StaxXL (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Giant_Green (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: alesanre folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: fishilicious folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: FROGGERT folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: banty folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: rampage7777 collected (3600)
Seat 9: peirao (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Honestly, not good with icm. If you know nothing about ICM pls refrain from unnecissary flamage. Any help would be greatly appreciated on this hand.
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Easy fold. Two players will be all-in before the next time the blinds hit you. I would say KK+ here, maybe throw in QQ but I think that's a little too wide. Edit: I was thinking satty bubble for some reason so my range in this spot is wider, but 66 is still not in it.
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yea, this is an easy fold
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mapunk
(United States)
796
Posts.
Joined
06-01-2006.
10-15-2008 8:33 PM
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In reply to
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 Randinho: | |
Easy fold. Two players will be all-in before the next time the blinds hit you.
Fold for this exact reason...
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Wow...I'm really curious about this spot too. I'm guessing people will say call, play to win, etc. But does ICM dictate a fold just because if you do, you'll likely get 6th place money, whereas if you call and lose you get nothing? Awaiting replies....
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durk86
(United States)
1,291
Posts.
Joined
12-23-2006.
10-15-2008 9:05 PM
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In reply to
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Is everyone serious about folding?
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| durk86: | |
Is everyone serious about folding?
Yes. If you call and lose you stand to make 0. If you fold, you probably are in line for 7th place, maybe even 6th. If you call and win your equity most certainly does not double.
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I hesitate to say that if you "suck at teh ICM" as you say, you have a tough road in trying to make long-term profit from the $55 45 mans. There's a lot of regulars in those with good ICM knowledge who will +EV you to death.
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Easy fold. Blinds arnt that big yet. Wouldn't of thought about it too long
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Look at the stacks he is shoving against (the ones he has to get through). If you all have 3k like YOU do, this is a snap call a lot of times against bubble abusers. HOWEVER, the 7k stack that is yet to act behind him when he shoves is problematic, and usually means he doesnt mind a call, so prob fold is best here. Nothing against the ICM guys, im sure they can come up with a way to say folding is always right even if you all had 2-3BB stacks, BUT 45man SNGs have very top heavy prize pools that you have a chance at winning less often than single tables. IMO in these multi-SNGs its more important to get top $$ than simply min cash them all. Therefore, take very +EV spot you can.
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| durk86: | |
Is everyone serious about folding?
yeah seriously
maybe this is why im down like 5k in these stupid fuckign things :(
im not folding
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durk86
(United States)
1,291
Posts.
Joined
12-23-2006.
10-16-2008 1:26 AM
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In reply to
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| mgerman23: | |
Nothing against the ICM guys, im sure they can come up with a way to say folding is always right even if you all had 2-3BB stacks, BUT 45man SNGs have very top heavy prize pools that you have a chance at winning less often than single tables. IMO in these multi-SNGs its more important to get top $$ than simply min cash them all. Therefore, take very +EV spot you can.
This is kinda what i thought
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Folding is good here.........
If you don't like $
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If you fold, your equity is $173.02.
If you call and lose, your equity is 0.
If you call and win, your equity is $326.78.
ICM-wise, you must win this hand 52.94% of the time. (173.02/326.78)
If rampage knows what he is doing, he is shoving any two here, and you are in great shape:
| Hand |
Pot equity |
Wins |
Ties |
| ** |
36.72% |
4,547,183,796 |
147,180,264 |
| 66 |
63.28% |
7,891,070,340 |
147,180,264 |
If rampage is shoving a more typical 20%, your 66 is behind his range, and barely a fold.
| Hand |
Pot equity |
Wins |
Ties |
| 20% |
51.87% |
1,357,727,352 |
23,879,112 |
| 66 |
48.13% |
1,258,766,304 |
23,879,112 |
From a strictly ICM standpoint, so long as rampage is shoving more than 1/3 of the time, you can call.
However, what ICM doesn't account for is that the other two shorties are eating the blinds before you are, so your equity, if you fold, might be just a little bit more than what's on paper. If you did a future game simulation for the next 7-8 hands, you'll find that your equity, should you fold, is really around the $200 mark! Taking this into account, you are really risking $200 to win $126 by calling. That changes everything.
Because of the intangible that ICM doesn't account for, I would only call this if you feel that rampage does indeed have the skill to shove very wide here. One look at rampage's stats clearly suggests that he is a poor beginning player (-41% over 300+ games*), and is likely entirely too tight in this situation.
Conclusion: This is a CLEAR fold.
*Note to admin - I'm not quoting stats for the purpose of berating this player, but rather because it strongly affects the hero's decision on this hand.
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