Poker Discussion
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
Ummm this is P5's, if your such a 2+2 fan why not carry your ass there? ( In reference to your 2+2 pokerstove reference.) Please don't ever disparage this sacred forum with that 2+2 garbage
By the way, and just for the sake of argument...
You clearly state that you young bucks are terrific at always taking advantage of plus ev situations.
When Nick Schulman folded 44 to Tony Lisandro's all in move when heads up, did he make a bad play? Since the majority of the time he knows he is the favorite against an unpaired hand, and since you only get a paired hand once every 16 times, then he knows he is a plus ev to call, correct?
Well, lookie here, he folded, and got his chips in later as a 90% favorite with one card to come when he had a flush vs Tony's two pair. So, did he make a better decision to pass up a positive ev situation to find a better spot?
Well, IMHO, you keep advocating to push with T high vs an all in player at a final table when the guy next to you can easily call you with a reasonable hand, and all you have to gain is isolating yourself against a player who the majority of the time is a favorite to win the pot anyhow, and there is no sidepot....
Too many negatives, not enough positives, and no matter what you say, he DID RISK 47k and his whole stack. You see when you put your chips in the middle with a player still to act trying to win 11300 and the player inbetween has a hand and a stack, there is that risk. Compound that with your hand even when not called by the SB still leaves you as a dog to win, well heck, I don't see your genius Ozzy, AJ, theorem being too much ev.
Also,
Jeff, if you don't want people to think your being pompous, quit cutting and pasting there quotes and trying to dissect them or belittle them with your snide comments. I have news for you. You don't rule. Ozzy isn't king, and I have seen Below, Ozzy and many others you mention make HORRIFICALLY BAD PLAYS. It doesn't mean that they aren't talented. It means that everyone, myself included occasionally blunder, gamble, or simply make bad decisions. Heck, I have made some of the most collossal blunders on the planet.
I can remember when I won so many tournaments it would make your head spin. If i didn't make a final table, I was surprised.
I can remember when Bax would win more tournaments in a day, a week, and a month than you can count. Now I puke when I hear naysayers say that he shouldn't be #1.
I can remember when SamE Nole COULD NOT LOSE.
I can tell you that LEGGGGGY went on a run that was easily as good as the run you are having.
I can tell you I think you are a simply brilliant fricking poker player.
I can tell you I hated when I saw your post attacking Lucky7, basically calling him a weak tight player, when all he has ever done is win, and never has said anything to be disparaged the way you so dynamically did. You ever stop to think that maybe he is establishing an image, and then using that image to capitalize later? Do you realize just how LONG TERM he has been a winning player?
I know you are really crushing right now bud, and I hope you keep doing so.... but seriously, you are a good player, but I would highly recommend that you not think of yourself and your style as that of being a demi-god.
One day we will have to have an old farts vs the young farts challenge.
You can have Ozzy, Aaron Beene, Imsolucky0, Bel0wab0ve, Colson10 and N82 (does he play?)
I'll take Bax, Sheets, Leggggy, Westtexasman, Lucky 7(faithless) and Loewa79.
Gl,
Chris.
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Nick probably gave his opponent a tight range as Jordan said, and thought it would be -EV to call.
There is also another consideration. I don't know the chip stacks or blinds or anything in the HU match, but allow me to explain this:
Lets say Nick feels his opponent will make a lot of mistakes postflop in the HU match. Maybe if he folds the 44, Nick thinks he is 60% to win. In that case, because he is 60% to win the match it is -EV for him to take a situation where the outcome of the match is at stack (all the chips) if he is worse than 60% to win. So, he would pass on a coinflip that decides the outcome of the tournament. Understand? Different situation, because Gobbo's stack and the payout structure makes him really want to gamble there, and Nick's hand is a HU scenario and is also much easier to calculate ICM in!
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Maybe it's because I'm super smart, but when I read that line I just
took it to be an amusing semi-slam on 2p2ers, basically calling them
nerds.
Also, thank god a new thread was created to comtinue the faux-argument.
Also, I read the post for the first time and agree that gobbo made the
right move. He isolated the player (with a huge range) allin,
getting 3:1. He will almost never be worse than 25% to win the
pot, the fact that he was that time is irrelevant. The added
value that he gives up by not having 2 hands to bust a short stack is
made up for by the dual facts that: he needs more chips to get to an
average stack AND the fact that tripling the short stack up isn't that
big of a consequence, since only very rarely will it come back to hurt
him (again, the fact that the planets were aligned this time and the
worse case scenario happened means nothing. Over the long term,
this was def the right play).
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Based on my stack, probably TT -AA and AK.
That's not what's important. What is important is that you guys completely discount what a Final table is all about. Sure, you can try to make clever pot odds and ev calculations, but here's reality:
Your math does not equal the pure benefit of eliminating a player. And for you stealthemonk, i'm quite sure that I understand what AJ has stated all along. I don't need pokerstove, or references that jeff will get a 2+2 er to come to pocket fives and explain it to us.
Does pokerstove take into account that he gave protection to a player by pushing with ten high, for such little chip gain?
Does your calculation take into account the -ev of chipping up a player by giving him protection and allowing him to triple up?
Does it measure the cost of now having this player go on a sick rush and taking out many other players?
Oh, btw, that's exactly what did happen. The player who would have been eliminated went on to become the massive chip leader after being down to the felt and should not have even been left alive.
gl,
Chris.
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well atleast i think im playing corrrect because this seemed like standard play to me
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Ummmm, who called 2+2 posters nerds? Certainly not me.
The absolute opposite is what transpired. I resented A J's post stating that he would basically have a 2+2 poster come explain it to us pocket fivers.
Gl,
Chris
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Let's have a street fight between everyone who calls someone else an idiot on this board!
Battle Axes are allowed!
also we're talking about poker on an online discussion board, we're all pretty nerdy/geeky. Don't say such and such does it, b/c look at them, they're probably a nerd also.
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I don't think you understand what I was saying.
I took JEFFS post as JEFF making a subtle jab at TWO PLUS TWOers, and
IMO you overreacted to it, even though I know you DIDN'T overreact, and
I know jeff WASN'T making an insulting comment. PLAYFUL JABS ALL
AROUND.
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what database? please reply or PM...thanks
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Ape owns, imsolucky owns, jeff owns, n82 owns etc. A lot of you guys arguing against "new school" and "math players" and stuff sound really insecure and spiteful. Maybe you should find someone you can talk to about those feelings. Anyway Jeff asked me to explain the numbers so here goes. If you don't have a good understanding of what expectation means in a mathematical sense or what a weighted hand range is then you and I have nothing to discuss. For the handful of posters who do, this should make everything a bit clearer.
Jeff: Re(2): Good tournament play or brainfart? You be the judge...
by gobboboy on 4/22/2006 14:04
Here's the full hand history.
PokerStars Game #4703929376: Tournament #23113753, $150+$12 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (2000/4000) - 2006/04/22 - 01:54:45 (ET)
Table '23113753 52' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: iamzflo (35706 in chips)
Seat 2: TopToad (110761 in chips)
Seat 3: gobboboy (48062 in chips)
Seat 4: brsavage (156256 in chips)
Seat 5: Sinchron (5508 in chips)
Seat 6: 3Nemesis (38947 in chips)
Seat 7: TexDuke (137632 in chips)
Seat 8: phx99 (38154 in chips)
Seat 9: fumanchu (45474 in chips)
iamzflo: posts the ante 200
TopToad: posts the ante 200
gobboboy: posts the ante 200
brsavage: posts the ante 200
Sinchron: posts the ante 200
3Nemesis: posts the ante 200
TexDuke: posts the ante 200
phx99: posts the ante 200
fumanchu: posts the ante 200
gobboboy: posts small blind 2000
brsavage: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gobboboy [Th 8s]
Sinchron: raises 1308 to 5308 and is all-in
3Nemesis: folds
TexDuke: folds
phx99: folds
fumanchu: folds
iamzflo: folds
TopToad: folds
gobboboy: raises 42554 to 47862 and is all-in
brsavage: folds
*** FLOP *** [As 3h 7s]
*** TURN *** [As 3h 7s] [Jd]
*** RIVER *** [As 3h 7s Jd] [8c]
brsavage said, "thats a genius move with a player facing elimination"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
gobboboy: shows [Th 8s] (a pair of Eights)
Sinchron: shows [Td Tc] (a pair of Tens)
Sinchron collected 16416 from pot
brsavage said, "pure genius"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 16416 | Rake 0
Board [As 3h 7s Jd 8c]
Seat 1: iamzflo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: TopToad (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: gobboboy (small blind) showed [Th 8s] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 4: brsavage (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Sinchron showed [Td Tc] and won (16416) with a pair of Tens
Seat 6: 3Nemesis folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: TexDuke folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: phx99 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: fumanchu folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Aaron: ok
so
ranges?
Jeff: utg isnt on any 2, maybe we can assume he is
Aaron: he isn't??
Jeff: i dunno he might fold 23 or something
can we put him on top 80%?
Aaron: k
Jeff: now to call
brsavage is so tight
hed need AK, or like JJ on up
I used pokerstove to calculate how much of the pot gobbo expects to win against the shortstack.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.4731 % 52.68% 01.79% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J3o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }
Hand 2: 45.5269 % 43.73% 01.79% { T8o }
So when brsavage folds gobbo will win 45.5269 % of the time. He is putting in 3308 chips and the pot is 9*200+2000+4000+5308= 13108. So he profits 13108*45.5269 % of the time and loses 3308*54.4731 % of the time. Thus his expectation is 5968 - 1802 = 4166 chips he expects to win every time he forces brsavage out of the pot.
Even if you assume gobbo is drawing dead whenever brsavage calls it probably still makes sense to risk 42554 to win 4166, especially if brsavage is tight. For example if he calls with JJ+, AK he is only calling 3% of the time. If he calls 10% of the time which is 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo (some of those are pretty unappealing hands to call with!) then gobbo is about breaking even on stealing the pot and is totally freerolling the times he draws out so it's still a very profitable play.
I didn't include the value of moving up in the payouts because with this many people left I think the conventional logic is to consider tournament chips to have approximate cash value. If the payout difference is small and the number of players is large icm becomes less significant. With a large number of players it also becomes almost impossible to calculate.
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AHHHHHSOOOO keemosabe,
If that's the case then I humbly apologize, I retract all statements, pushing with 8Tos is obv a pos ev, eliminating players is way overrated, sizzler rules, young players rock, and God save the Queen.
GL,
Chris
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If that's the case then I humbly apologize, I retract all statements,
good.
pushing with 8Tos is obv a pos ev,
definitely in this case
eliminating players is way overrated
no question it is.
Good job.
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no need to rub salt a wound AJ. there was good discussion about this that I enjoyed reading.
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