Poker Discussion
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
Ok all so I have a interesting spot last night deep into a tourny. Their are 12 people left I have about 250k in chips and am dealt AK off 3rd to act after the BB. 2nd UTG open shoves for 100k and it's on me and I try to isolate (since I knew he had a wide range of hands) and shove all in for 250k. The guy right after me who had us both covered shoves all in. SHIT. Blinds at this point were 5k 10k with a 1k ante. SO going into the flop the first shover shows A2 off, I have AK off and last shover shows QQ, GG me.
My question is, did I make the right move or should I have laid it down since their were others to act behind me?
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how could this be the wrong move? you should improve a lot more as a player if you learn to figure out why some things are wrong and some are right, rather than just posting some random HH and asking if it was a good play.
What if I told you it was really stupid? Would you not be shoving AK in this spot?
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This is 100% the correct move. Just got a little unlucky that there was a big hand behind you.
Anyone think a flat call here gets QQ to fold?
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no, I think QQ shoves behind and you get to keep 150k chips. Still, the isolation is correct as anything below QQ gets thrown into the muck behind you.
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You are 6 handed, so the chances of a big hand being held by the last 3 ppl to act are very slim
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You're keeping the 150K because you're folding AK to a 15BB shove in a 45BB pot?
Good luck with that..........
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I knew it was the right play and just got unlucky someone had a monster behind me. Flat calling then folding to a shove was another option as well but it seemed unlikely anyone behind me would shove over the top of me so I pushed. oh well. thanks for the insight
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calling/folding to a shove is sooooooo bad, you're in decent shape if the over the top shover has KK getting 3-1, folding here is really bad since the blinds go on crack soon, and potential 600K flips > grinding 15BB's untill you're crippled by the late MTT structure, double up, or bust out.
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No, I said I wouldn't have made the call in the first place and shoved for isolation as he did. But if for some reason I fell asleep at the wheel and called and was shoved on, yes I'd fold AK b/c the only hand I'm racing there is QQ and the other two have me smoked.
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you don't have to race getting 3-1, all you need is an overcard and it's a correct play. Anyway I think it's pretty obv this is a smaller buyin MTT, so ranging the guy at QQ+ is pretty silly.
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Ok, I guess now is as good a time as any to ask what could be a stupid question but seems to make sense to me. You're sitting with 12 players left, 10-12 get a certain prize and 9+ get substantially more per spot. Your odds of winning are 3-1, pot odds are 3-1, and you make a call here saying that over a long run you'll be profitable. Standard play.
But what if over a long run you aren't regularly this deep in this MTT, or if this MTT is above your current 'roll' and the winnings are significant to you? Is it really profitable to make a call for what you hope is a race for your tourney life in this spot and still consider it profitable? Even if you're regularly in this position, don't the odds need to be skewed even more given the difference in prizes?
In a cash game it's what you see in the pot where folding gets you zero and calling gets you a shot at the money, in a tournament that you're deep in the money it's no longer 3-1 odds based on the winnings increase from advancing further. If you fold you can increase your value by moving up positions and if you call you're risking going out 11th...66% chance you're done here.
Would it be such a bad play to fold w/ 15 BB in an effort to increase your value in a position where you're not 'hoping' for a race?
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Here you identify the difference between the professional and the amateur way of thinking. The amateur mistake is to think that the difference in prize money between, say 12th and 5th is significant. It isn't. If you think it is, then you will be unable to make the plays you need to make to put yourself in position to get a top 3 finish. So the professional is happy as a happy thing to get all-in here with AK and if villain has QQ, so what? Your getting a 45%+ chance to make a big increase in your chips.
For the amateur, the seduction of winning an extra $100 or whatever, can be a significant motivation to play too tight, when you bust out, you bust out with your money in ahead ... not ideal. However, your point about BR is very significant: the logic changes if you are playing above your roll. In this case, having got so far in the trny, you should be playing tight small-ball poker, because the effective value of the additional level is much more significant. Some maths: Assume $100 BR and 100 buy-in. You have $250 for 12th, and 9+ get an extra $50, 8th pays $500. Here, if you cling on until you are 8th, you make an additional $250. Remeber your roll is $100, you have $150 in profit if you bust now, or $400 if you wait. 150% ROI or 400% ROI. But this is not just ROI, this is ROC, return on capital. Now compare the professional. He is properly rolled with 200bi for the trny, $20,000. $150 profit is an ROC of 0.75%, he's not impressed by this and is playing for 1st-3rd, where he can get an ROC of 50%. So if you are stupid, or drunk enough, to play outside your roll, you should fold the AK. If you want to play optimally and you are properly rolled, this is an easy shove.
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