Poker Discussion Post

tough spots, but i think hand 1 is a shove and hand 2 is a call... ahh the more i think of hand 1 it maybe a fold.. this is why i dont play dons, so many sick spots

DoN has one major overriding treatment: You must not bust by playing a hand when it's not required to make the money.

You get no style points for busting with a hand you shouldn't be (don't have to be) playing.

Next you have not furnished any player reads.  Has any of the players, acting behind you, shown knowledge that they shouldn't call.  If you have players, clueless, that are still playing, then foldiing is correct.

1.  Shove.

2.  Since you're 7-handed @ 200/400, I'd call.  6-handed I probably fold. 

3.  Gonna hijack your DoN thread with my own DoN brags from yesterday.  Yes, I pwn DoNs...

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Bubble brag suckout.  I shoved his BB about 5 orbits in a row.  Guess he had enough.

PokerStars Game #22626772817: Tournament #124908433, $5.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2008/12/04 19:17:05 ET
Table '124908433 1' 10-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: mrbad16 (2265 in chips)
Seat 2: JamesAR2 (2213 in chips)
Seat 4: DonkBeater69 (2230 in chips)
Seat 5: ziga22 (2250 in chips)
Seat 7: Chief021 (2525 in chips)
Seat 10: euraznstyle (3517 in chips)
mrbad16: posts the ante 25
JamesAR2: posts the ante 25
DonkBeater69: posts the ante 25
ziga22: posts the ante 25
Chief021: posts the ante 25
euraznstyle: posts the ante 25
DonkBeater69: posts small blind 125
ziga22: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DonkBeater69 [7d Jd]
Chief021: folds
euraznstyle: folds
mrbad16: folds
JamesAR2: folds
DonkBeater69: raises 1955 to 2205 and is all-in
ziga22: calls 1955
*** FLOP *** [5d 7c 6d]
*** TURN *** [5d 7c 6d] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [5d 7c 6d Kc] [5s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DonkBeater69: shows [7d Jd] (two pair, Sevens and Fives)
ziga22: shows [Ts Js] (a pair of Fives)
DonkBeater69 collected 4560 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4560 | Rake 0
Board [5d 7c 6d Kc 5s]
Seat 1: mrbad16 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: JamesAR2 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: DonkBeater69 (small blind) showed [7d Jd] and won (4560) with two pair, Sevens and Fives
Seat 5: ziga22 (big blind) showed [Ts Js] and lost with a pair of Fives
Seat 7: Chief021 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: euraznstyle folded before Flop (didn't bet)

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Another bubble noob.

PokerStars Game #22627118356: Tournament #124907811, $5.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2008/12/04 19:30:24 ET
Table '124907811 1' 10-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: rb9746 (2005 in chips)
Seat 5: liveatnl (2205 in chips)
Seat 6: Meldix (1470 in chips)
Seat 7: jaydawg99 (3360 in chips)
Seat 8: shers2006 (1365 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 10: DonkBeater69 (4595 in chips)
rb9746: posts the ante 30
liveatnl: posts the ante 30
Meldix: posts the ante 30
jaydawg99: posts the ante 30
shers2006: posts the ante 30
DonkBeater69: posts the ante 30
liveatnl: posts small blind 150
Meldix: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DonkBeater69 [Jc 2c]
jaydawg99: folds
shers2006: folds
DonkBeater69: raises 4265 to 4565 and is all-in
rb9746: calls 1975 and is all-in
liveatnl: folds
Meldix: folds
Uncalled bet (2590) returned to DonkBeater69
*** FLOP *** [Th Ac Qc]
*** TURN *** [Th Ac Qc] [5h]
*** RIVER *** [Th Ac Qc 5h] [Ks]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DonkBeater69: shows [Jc 2c] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
rb9746: shows [Kh Ah] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
DonkBeater69 collected 4580 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4580 | Rake 0
Board [Th Ac Qc 5h Ks]
Seat 2: rb9746 (button) showed [Kh Ah] and lost with two pair, Aces and Kings
Seat 5: liveatnl (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Meldix (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: jaydawg99 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: shers2006 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: DonkBeater69 showed [Jc 2c] and won (4580) with a straight, Ten to Ace -

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Who folds KK pre-flop in a $5 DoN?  This is the most obv AA in the history of poker.  limp/re-raising utg is the oldest move ever.  puhlease.

PokerStars Game #22625395331: Tournament #124907883, $5.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2008/12/04 18:25:13 ET
Table '124907883 1' 10-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Brian Naildy (1470 in chips)
Seat 2: JamesAR2 (1580 in chips)
Seat 3: itchyparts (1450 in chips)
Seat 4: MrTommy (1020 in chips)
Seat 5: MakeCents7 (1360 in chips)
Seat 7: DonkBeater69 (1460 in chips)
Seat 8: Sahne23 (3710 in chips)
Seat 9: PokerVana (1500 in chips)
Seat 10: Cool_Andy (1450 in chips)
JamesAR2: posts small blind 15
itchyparts: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DonkBeater69 [Kh Ks]
MrTommy: calls 30
MakeCents7: folds
DonkBeater69: raises 90 to 120
Sahne23: folds
PokerVana: folds
Cool_Andy: calls 120
Brian Naildy: folds
JamesAR2: folds
itchyparts: folds
MrTommy: raises 240 to 360
DonkBeater69: folds
Cool_Andy: calls 240
*** FLOP *** [8h Qd Th]
MrTommy: bets 660 and is all-in
Cool_Andy: calls 660
*** TURN *** [8h Qd Th] [6c]
*** RIVER *** [8h Qd Th 6c] [2s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
MrTommy: shows [Ah Ac] (a pair of Aces)
Cool_Andy: shows [Ts As] (a pair of Tens)
MrTommy collected 2205 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2205 | Rake 0
Board [8h Qd Th 6c 2s]
Seat 1: Brian Naildy (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: JamesAR2 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: itchyparts (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: MrTommy showed [Ah Ac] and won (2205) with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: MakeCents7 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: DonkBeater69 folded before Flop
Seat 8: Sahne23 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: PokerVana folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: Cool_Andy showed [Ts As] and lost with a pair of Tens

Hand 1 - Shove unless the BB has shown that he likes to make hero calls with the big blind or the table is making really loose calls on the bubble.

I normally play $52 turbos and most people are not willing to call off on the bubble. I've never played the $5.20s so people might play the bubble differently in those.

You can probably win anyway even if you fold. However, I like to shove in spots like these where it looks like I can pick up chips with very low risk.

Hand 2 - This is a bit tougher. The pusher's M is quite low and his range is going to be wide. If you could be sure he was doing this with a weaker ace, you'd probably be happy to call.

Let's make some assumptions:

Lets say that if you call, you win this hand about 65% of the time

Lets also assume that if you call and win, you'll win the SNG 99% of the time (probably more like 100% but I guess it is mathematically impossible for that to be 100%).

Lets assume that the 35% of the time you call and lose, you'll only win the SNG about 20% of the time.

Now, if you fold, I estimate your chances of winning the SNG are between 75 and 80%. I think that is a fair estimate in your situation. If there were more extreme stack sizes with a couple more big stacks and more really short stacks like the 1K stack, your chances would be better.

Expected values

Call - .65*1 (win) + .35*.2 (lose) = .72

Fold - .75 to .8

When I originally read the HH (before I did these calculations), I was leaning towards calling. Now that I have done them, I think that with the satellite payout structure, you should lean towards folding (especially if you are adept at push/fold and can find spots to pick up chips with little risk).

If we lower your stack size to 2K, this is an easy call.

 first hand i think is a shove

2nd hand i think is a fold

1. fold

2. I call like 90% of the time, but I think I am going to start folding here seven handed.  I have a lot of seventh place finishes because I lose this race because I am just about never ahead here. fml

 1. I think either move is OK, but I would lean towards a fold rather than shove, because of relative chip stacks. I think you are in great shape to be ITM. If you were closer to 2000 chips I might make this shove as the chips would have a greater impact on my outcome, if that makes sense to you?

2. Another tough spot, but I think it's a fold too. I think someone did the math for it earlier maybe?

1. Tough hand here that could use some more info such as whether bb knows he should be folding almost everything to you if you push or has he been loose with his calling.
In t

 1. Meh its close, I prolly end up shoving.

2. I fold this without too much thought.

1. Tough hand here that could use more info such as does the BB know he should be folding almost everything to you or has he been loose with his calls of allins. Also helps but not nearly as important how tight have the two shortys still to act been.

Overall I think this is a push not so much because of the chips you stand to pick up (which are helpful) but more importantly because of the fact you pushing keeps the shorties from picking up chips that they very much need.

2. Fold because although dominating a good portion of his range you are in very good shape for a seat and really no need to risk that when you can find a better spot to be pushing if you do need to pick up chips later.

Another reason for the fold is that I think the pushers range is a little smaller due to the fact he has to expect to get called by bb since 40% of his stack is already in

Hand #1 (99):  Technically, if your opponents aer playing perfectly, you should be shoving any two here.  However, since people are dumb and will call way too loosely, your range tightens up.  However, in any event, 99 is too huge to consider anything other than a shove.

ICM Nash Calculator Results

Hand 2 (AKo):  Fold, and this one's not close.  If he's shoving what Nash says he should be (32%), you can profitably call with KK+.  He's probably tighter than that.  KK is somewhat close, but a good call.  AKo is just bad.  If your chipcount was smaller, say 2000, you would actually need aces, and aces only, to make this a profitable call.

ICM Nash Calculator Results

ferrengi:

If we lower your stack size to 2K, this is an easy call.

Jennifear:

ferrengi:

If we lower your stack size to 2K, this is an easy call.

This is not true.  With a 2000 stack size, his calling range would be reduced to AA only.  The reason that it reduces is that the reward is similar, but the risk is greater in calling.

ICM Nash Calculator Results

Jennifear:

ferrengi:

If we lower your stack size to 2K, this is an easy call.

This is not true.  With a 2000 stack size, his calling range would be reduced to AA only.  The reason that it reduces is that the reward is similar, but the risk is greater in calling.

ICM Nash Calculator Results