Poker Discussion
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
Is this a super std call or is hero mucking?
Seat 1: Flaton78 (8,285)
Seat 2: prettymandalay (2,135)
Seat 6: Solid AB (1,830)
Seat 7: Matt1040 (1,250)
prettymandalay posts the small blind of 100
Solid AB posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Solid AB [3s Ad]
Matt1040 folds
Flaton78 folds
prettymandalay raises to 2,135, and is all in
Solid AB has 15 seconds left to act
Solid AB ??
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It's a fold even if the SB is playing optimally & therefore shoving ATC. I always forget about that holdem resources site. Thx for the replies yall.
| PU | CA | OC | Range |
|---|
| CO |
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| 17.9%, 22+ A7s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s |
| BU |
| 8.3%, 66+ ATs+ AJo+ KQs |
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| SB | 1.8%, JJ+ |
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| BB | 1.8%, JJ+ |
| SB |
| 7.2%, 77+ AJs+ AJo+ |
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| BB | 2.6%, TT+ AKs |
| BB |
| 10.0%, 55+ A9s+ ATo+ KQs | | BU |
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| 100.0%, Any two |
| SB |
| 2.7%, 99+ |
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| BB | 0.5%, AA |
| BB |
| 3.2%, 88+ | | SB |
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| 100.0%, Any two |
| BB |
| 16.0%, 55+ A5s+ A8o+ K9s+ KJo+ QJs |
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 kamikazzee63: | |
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| 8888kush: | |
| kamikazzee63: | |
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On the Bubble with a Shorter Stack, Insta Fold.
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| TwystedPair: | |
| 8888kush: | |
| kamikazzee63: | |
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Yeah at this point you're playing survivor against the othr two short stacks. This is an ezzzzzzz fold
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at best you are 60/40 here if he has something like 2 broadways, but more than likely given his stack and the fact that its the bubble, your either dominated w/ a better ace or he has a PP and your 40/60... very very standard fold
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How to analyse this hand in full (against the player who isn't shoving any two):
Go here and put in the stack sizes and prizes, to calculate your equity if you fold (I'll assume this is a $55 with prizes of 247.50/148.50/99.00:
http://www.poker-tools-online.com/icm.html
You'll get:
| Player |
Chips |
Prob 1st |
Prob 2nd |
Prob 3rd |
Equity |
|
Hero |
1630.000000 |
0.1207 |
0.2294 |
0.3205 |
$95.67 |
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pretty |
2335.000000 |
0.1730 |
0.3162 |
0.3088 |
$120.34 |
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flaton78 |
8285.000000 |
0.6137 |
0.2752 |
0.0930 |
$201.98 |
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matt1040 |
1250.000000 |
0.0926 |
0.1792 |
0.2777 |
$77.01 |
Figure out how much equity you'll have if you lose (obv $0).
Figure out how much equity you'll need if you win
| Player |
Chips |
Prob 1st |
Prob 2nd |
Prob 3rd |
Equity |
|
Hero |
3630.000000 |
0.2695 |
0.4644 |
0.2337 |
$158.80 |
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pretty |
305.000000 |
0.0226 |
0.0468 |
0.1475 |
$27.17 |
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flaton |
8285.000000 |
0.6151 |
0.3041 |
0.0754 |
$204.85 |
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matt1040 |
1250.000000 |
0.0928 |
0.1847 |
0.5434 |
$104.18 |
You risk $95.67 to win $63.13.
Next, divide Risk/(Risk+Possible Gain)
95.67/158.80 = 60.25%.
That's how often you must win to break even on your call.
Then go here:
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/holdemOracle.jsp?compute=y&b=&h=put+in+his+range+here&e=60
and put in his shoving range.
It will tell you which hands win often enough to justify a call.
If he is shoving 100%, you can call with the hands that you figured out using the Nash ICM Calculator.
If pretty is not a player who understands he can abuse this situation, and is shoving a more typical 30%, you are going to need a much tighter {TT+, AQ+} here to make the call.
In general, if you are not in last place on the bubble, but you are covered, you need a ridiculously tight range to call a shove, and A3o will nearly never suffice.
Hope that helps!
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I don't know any of that shit but I do know you cannot call there ever
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jennifear, thanks for those links. i feel like something just clicked.
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