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MTT variance insurmountable?
Zpaceman (Spain) 1,229 Posts. Joined 08-12-2006.
09-21-2007 1:12 PM

As part of my efforts to improve my game i've been researching strategy articles and in one of these i came across this surprising quote:

"if you play multitable tournaments, the unfortunate truth is that the variance is so high that you are not on the right path for steady bankroll growth"

For the avoidance of bias in your responses, i'm not going to reveal the author of this statement (and please don't let the cat out of the bag if you know who it is), but it is from a highly successful, highly regarded player.

From my experience of playing almost exclusively mtts for the past 2 years i think i'd have to agree with the general premise of this statement (i.e. you can't achieve steady BR growth playing mtts), but the more important issue, perhaps, is whether this statement should also lead us to the conclusion that to make a living from playing poker we should diversify our game away from mtts? 
 
 
 

downtown (United States) 146 Posts. Joined 09-19-2007.
09-22-2007 10:31 AM - In reply to

That really doesn't make sense, if you're taking out money weekly from your BR and playing a fairly large volume of MTT's, your BR will be less and less robusto. Wouldn't it be better to just keep your robusto BR and withdraw when you run good for a week and win a few MTT's?

sharkusmanly (Canada) 323 Posts. Joined 06-09-2005.
09-22-2007 10:31 AM - In reply to

i guarentee you zpaceman has a much better life than many of the ranked pros

Cmoney3 (United States) 8,206 Posts. Joined 12-26-2005.
09-22-2007 10:42 AM - In reply to

and i can guarantee you that im not one of them

edit* and whats the point of being a poker pro if u cant win money???

Dyzalot (United States) 5,439 Posts. Joined 05-11-2005.
09-22-2007 12:53 PM - In reply to

My bankroll grows faster than if I put it in a stock market index fund.  That's "steady" enough for me.

bravecow (United States) 1,142 Posts. Joined 02-04-2007.
09-22-2007 2:10 PM - In reply to

Ask Annette ? Well GG. To ask one, if not the fastest growing Bankrolls in the world, wouldnt and shouldnt even count.

browerkid (United States) 397 Posts. Joined 02-07-2005.
09-22-2007 2:17 PM - In reply to

i dunno know how you guys handle the swings, I use to play lots of tournies, but not anymore, honestly everyone has gotten good, 3 years ago no one was good except like 3 guys lol........I play cash 2/4 - 5/10 nl now, and it is they are very comfortable games for me, bankroll and skill wise...........I think unless your an elite tournament player you should switch to cash games.......I use to be like many of you and and think cash was boring, especially grinding middle limits, there is not that excitement of winning a tourny.......but then at the end of the month when I look at my profits, and how consistent they are I realize why I play cash.

Kevin

bravecow (United States) 1,142 Posts. Joined 02-04-2007.
09-22-2007 2:20 PM - In reply to

ITM is not a good indicator unless all the data was taken from the same award schedules, same amount of players in tourneys. Now they co-mingle 18-45 man SnG's. Im 24-28% on two sites and just dropped to -winnings for MTT's. Which, after this post I think Im going back to Cash games 1, SnG's 2nd, and Mtt last. I just run sooo bad in then now that It has effected my play. I do follow extreme bankroll management also. Yes MTT's are for the extreme gifted and talented and run consistantly well. None of the above apply to me.

bhanks11 (United States) 369 Posts. Joined 07-09-2006.
09-22-2007 2:38 PM - In reply to

Or.......get a backer......I am not a backed player, but often wonder why.........variance will eat away at the poker soul if not properly taken care of.

If you ask any backed player (whether it's one of Bax's or JJProd's) they will all say the same thing....not to mention they have horrible BRM skills and are degenerate money spending piggies :)  semi-jk.....,

Zpaceman (Spain) 1,229 Posts. Joined 08-12-2006.
09-22-2007 2:58 PM - In reply to

all offers will be carefully considered ;-)

Jennifear (United States) 9,634 Posts. Joined 11-01-2005.
09-22-2007 4:55 PM - In reply to

Maybe so, but the OP asked about whether it is possible to conrtol the variance end of it, and that is how!

ahh_snap (United States) 1,349 Posts. Joined 03-30-2005.
09-22-2007 5:14 PM - In reply to

Trust me the swings in cash games are 10x worse at least for me.

msteitz12 (United States) 126 Posts. Joined 05-04-2007.
09-23-2007 1:06 AM - In reply to

I believe the original writer is correct. Assume you are a winning MTT player. You net a profit of 200k in 2007. Now assume another winning player makes the same amount in cash game play. In 2008 both players decide that they want to reach a profit of 400k. The cash game player can use a portion of his BR to play in higher stakes games and if he continues to win at the same rate his BR will surely grow. The MTT player is unable to play higher stakes with his profits because higher stakes arent available unless he chooses to take his game offline. Instead, he must rely on "running good" over this year period to reach his goal of 400k assuming that his skill is also the same.

This is a hypothetical of course. IMO the original author was talking about long term steady wealthbuilding, and felt that ultimately MTT variance and stakes capped his possible earnings.

dpottz (United States) 11,616 Posts. Joined 04-05-2006.
09-23-2007 1:13 AM - In reply to

he wasn't talking about a limit in stakes, he was talking about variance

msteitz12 (United States) 126 Posts. Joined 05-04-2007.
09-23-2007 1:32 AM - In reply to

DPOTTz
Yes, that is the obvious. Variance exists, but so do stakes, and they can't be ignored. ZPACEMAN can not take 50k from a win in a tournament, and then enter a 50k buy in. But, he can take his profits in a 25-50nl and move to 50-100. The argument is not whether or not one can make a living at mtt. That answer is obvious, but can a BR grow with greater acceleration than a cash game player?  i don't believe so.


dpottz (United States) 11,616 Posts. Joined 04-05-2006.
09-23-2007 1:36 AM - In reply to

but what you're saying is in no way relevant to the topic at hand

 
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