Poker Discussion
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
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So I am looking for some motivation to grind online, and am trying to see what sort of action I can get on this bet..
I am saying that I will win the 100 rebuy on stars, daytime or night time, over the course of playing 14 days online.. what will most likely happen is that I will play 6 days straight, take a day off, then play another 6 days straight, day off, and then play 2 days, to complete 14 days of playing the 100r daytime and night.
No chopping allowed, I have to win it outright... Looking to get some decent odds, and willing to bet between 5 and 10k, possibly more depending on the demand I receive... Oh and some background.. I have never gotten to 7 in the 100r in my life.. have played it probably near 50 times, maybe 60.
Let me know if anyone's interested.. since most of you hate me online, I'm sure a lot of you would love to take my money so here's your chance
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lol the fields on thur-sat night have less than 100
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 Riverhorse: | |
someone should figure the odds of any one player winning it over that period of time. bet it's a lot higher than 7-1.
Seems easy
If you assumed all skill levels are equal and find the average # of entries divided by # of tournaments he will play
But I have failed almost every math class I have ever taken so people shouldn't gamble money based on my equations
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| chicagocards1: | |
lol the fields on thur-sat night have less than 100
shhhhhhh dont ruin his 7 to 1 scam
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pm me your aim and we can talk some #'s
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| zeppelinzoso16: | |
Seems easy
If you assumed all skill levels are equal and find the average # of entries divided by # of tournaments he will play
But I have failed almost every math class I have ever taken so people shouldn't gamble money based on my equations
lol's
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| Riverhorse: | |
lol's
If the fields were assumed to be all equal in skill and he played 28 of them all with 100 entires. The odds of him playing all 28 and not winning any of them would be .99^28 which is .755.
Which means in lamen's terms, 75% of the time he played a sample size of 28 tournaments he would not win any of them.
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| RayRoss87: | |
If the fields were assumed to be all equal in skill and he played 28 of them all with 100 entires. The odds of him playing all 28 and not winning any of them would be .99^28 which is .755.
Which means in lamen's terms, 75% of the time he played a sample size of 28 tournaments he would not win any of them.
Much simplier way to figure this out. Assuming equal skill and average field size of 100, odds of winning any one tournament is 1 out of 100 or 1%. So playing x amount of tournaments means your chances of winning any one of them is the sum of your chances of winning one, same thing as (1%)x.
So if planning to play 26 tourney over a two week period, under these assumptions you should win this bet 26%. Soooooo your running way below expectations buddy. Self analysis time?
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So what ur saying is, you want to make a bet you prolly can't do unless variance is tremendously on ur side, just so you can make a lil bit...since u will be breaking even almost (unless you bink on a sunday). Cuz roughly 60 timesx300=18,000, and first in these is like <25k normally, except a couple days.
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| 4sakenme: | |
Much simplier way to figure this out. Assuming equal skill and average field size of 100, odds of winning any one tournament is 1 out of 100 or 1%. So playing x amount of tournaments means your chances of winning any one of them is the sum of your chances of winning one, same thing as (1%)x.
So if planning to play 26 tourney over a two week period, under these assumptions you should win this bet 26%. Soooooo your running way below expectations buddy. Self analysis time?
lol that is such bad logic
so, if i play 100 times, im going to win one.....hmmmmmm
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| funnygut: | |
| 4sakenme: | |
Much simplier way to figure this out. Assuming equal skill and average field size of 100, odds of winning any one tournament is 1 out of 100 or 1%. So playing x amount of tournaments means your chances of winning any one of them is the sum of your chances of winning one, same thing as (1%)x.
So if planning to play 26 tourney over a two week period, under these assumptions you should win this bet 26%. Soooooo your running way below expectations buddy. Self analysis time?
lol that is such bad logic so, if i play 100 times, im going to win one.....hmmmmmm
ORLY?
its simple math kid, sorry if it's over your head.... open up your pre algebra book.
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pre algebra itt
edit: i'll give u 4:1 iirc
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| 4sakenme: | |
ORLY? its simple math kid, sorry if it's over your head.... open up your pre algebra book.
So if he played 1000 tourneys there is a 1000% chance hed win one? lol Youre math is flawed.
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Leet8s
(United States)
6,637
Posts.
Joined
08-29-2006.
11-20-2009 12:21 AM
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In reply to
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No, he is saying if he has a 1% chance of winning the tournament and plays 1000 of them he would win 10 of them. The best probability method of estimating is binomial probability. Create separate scenarios for the probability of winning the 100rs on a Monday, Wednesday, Sunday, etc. and just use the binomial probability equation.
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| supra1988t: | |
| 4sakenme: | |
ORLY? its simple math kid, sorry if it's over your head.... open up your pre algebra book.
So if he played 1000 tourneys there is a 1000% chance hed win one? lol Youre math is flawed.
you innumerate(yes this is a word, should learn what it means) mofo's tilt me nearly to death, why is it so hard to bend your brain around this concept?
if he plays 1000, 100 person tournies assuming equally skill, expectation would be that he would win 10 of them!!!!!!!!!!!!! A 100 person tournament..... one person out of that 100 will definately win = 1% shot. Play two tournaments, two 1% shots....... Play 1000 tournament = 1000% chance. <holy applied math batman, you mean 1000% is actually possible?>
get it? if you don't, well at least cell phones come with calculators now so you can figure out what is 20% of a $100 dinner bill.
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| Leet8s: | |
No, he is saying if he has a 1% chance of winning the tournament and plays 1000 of them he would win 10 of them.
The best probability method of estimating is binomial probability. Create separate scenarios for the probability of winning the 100rs on a Monday, Wednesday, Sunday, etc. and just use the binomial probability equation.
calm down leet8s don't make their head's explode with all them big words.
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