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Hi all
Bubble has just broken a few hands ago, and the Big blind has started to get very agressive.
PokerStars Game #21101319689: Tournament #113471588, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2008/10/11 5:44:46 ET Table '113471588 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button Seat 5: robgone69 (6223 in chips) Seat 7: XXTwoFaceXX (4077 in chips) Seat 8: buffyslayer1 (3200 in chips) robgone69: posts the ante 25 XXTwoFaceXX: posts the ante 25 buffyslayer1: posts the ante 25 robgone69: posts small blind 100 XXTwoFaceXX: posts big blind 200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to buffyslayer1 [Tc Ad] buffyslayer1: raises 300 to 500 robgone69: folds XXTwoFaceXX: raises 3552 to 4052 and is all-in buffyslayer1: ??
I make my standard raise for this level and get shoved on, should i be calling this?? I know I have plenty of chips left so i fell folding may be right??
If this is a fold what hands do you tihnk I need to be calling this??
cheers buffy
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I would fould this hand. Aggression at the bubble is standard, but calling a shove is quite a different thing from shoving yourself. I would need to have AA, KK, QQ, JJ or AK to call here. That may be a little tight, but you already have third place, and you want definitely go for first here. If he has a PP, youre just hoping for a coinflip, whereas, in two of three situations, the flop will cause you to miss - If he has AK, AQ, AJ youre dominated, and losing is a desaster, making you the short stack, and with about short of 900 chips vs two villains who have 6K+ on chips, your shove will probably called all the time here.
GL, BEAT
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ATo is not good enough to stack off here unless you know this guy is shoving with a super wide range. Off the top of my head I'm
thinking 77+ and AQ+, maybe AJ.
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Thanks guys, I am not 100% sure it is a fold. ATo is a huge hand 3 handed and the BB has been very agressive since the bubble broke. I am aiming for 1st or third not second....
any SNG experts advice is welcome here...
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buffyslayer1: |   |
Thanks guys, I am not 100% sure it is a fold. ATo is a huge hand 3 handed and the BB has been very agressive since the bubble broke. I am aiming for 1st or third not second....
any SNG experts advice is welcome here...
what would a SNG expert tell you? ICM isn't playing here so the only thing that matters is if you beat his range preflop. If your read is that he is rly aggro and he is doing it rly light then its a call. If you aren't so certain it may be a fold. If you want more specific answers go to www.pokerstove.com.
ftr tho I usually have a hard time finding a fold button with AT 3 handed 20 BBs deep
EDIT: just saw you were actually only 16 BBs deep. i think raise/folding is kinda bad and I would call this nearly 100% of the time methinks
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Tough spot.
Definitely depends on his range.
Let's analyze.
If you fold:
| Player |
Chips |
Prob 1st |
Prob 2nd |
Prob 3rd |
Equity |
|
Player 1 |
6098.000000 |
0.4517 |
0.3550 |
0.1933 |
$20.03 |
|
Hero |
2675.000000 |
0.1981 |
0.2700 |
0.5318 |
$15.47 |
|
Player 3 |
4727.000000 |
0.3501 |
0.3750 |
0.2749 |
$18.50 | If you call and lose: 3rd for $10.80, a loss of $4.67.
If you call and win:
| Player |
Chips |
Prob 1st |
Prob 2nd |
Prob 3rd |
Equity |
|
Player 1 |
6098.000000 |
0.4517 |
0.4539 |
0.0944 |
$20.57 |
|
Player 2 |
6525.000000 |
0.4833 |
0.4318 |
0.0849 |
$20.96 |
|
Player 3 |
877.000000 |
0.0650 |
0.1143 |
0.8207 |
$12.47 | ... a gain of $5.49, compared to folding.
So you risk $4.67 to win $5.49. To break even, you will have to win 46% of the time.
So you say he's aggressive.... is he just raising a lot, or has he been restealing? That's two different kinds of aggressive.
If he is shoving more than 1/6 of the time here, you can call because you have 46% allin equity against his range. If not, you can't.
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the ICM calculations say call it. Aside from that lets look at your play. you make it 500, if this guy is as aggressive as you say then he may view this 2.5x raise as weak and shove. the bet looks like you want to raise with a marginal hand and youre leaving yourself enough chips back to get away from the hand if shoved on. your raise here has invited a counterplay by your opponent, I try to avoid this at all costs. you may think that you have a little too much to open shove but this stops your opponents from countering your play. having played 1000's of sngs I want to dictate what happens here and take the initiative. If you raised preflop thinking A10 was ahead (and you are entitled to think so) either shove or make a raise that tells your opponents that your committed and not folding this hand. Making the raise only 500 then youre inviting someone to come over the top. you say that your looking to risk taking 3rd in order to win. This is good thinking, but you may have missed your spot in taking a a huge lead here. What I always try to remember when playing sngs is that 3rd place is still a 100% ROI. However, after making the raise to 500 and facing an all in I wouldnt like it but as Jen just said in the above post the calculations say you probably should call. Another thing to remember here too is what is your image at the table? Do you think this guy has you down as weak/passive etc? The answer to this question may help you make the call. Gl in the future man. I hope this helps..
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Folds, are you guys serious? Bet/folding is terrible imo. If you're going to bet/fold just go ahead and open fold... don't throw away 1/6 of your stack.
What's in his range? Probably A-x, any two paint, any pair if you think he's very aggressive (which is what people tend to become as soon as they're guaranteed money). You're on the button raising just above a min-raise; he could be doing that with so many things worse/barely better than A-10.
Snap call...
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thanks jen and thanks for the feedback guys.
I think its pretty close still, and although the guys been agressive this is the first reraise he has made, which leads me to think I am not ahead of his range enough to call
I would say that I think the size of my preflop raise is irrelvant here. 2.5x is my standard raise at this level, and I had all ready shown down kings with a 2.5x raise.
with regards to open shoving, I did condsider this and if the blinds are 200/400 then I would definately do this. However, at 100/200 25 ante and over $3k in chips and the bubble bursting like 4 hands ago I think I can just raise. Less than 3k its a open shove I think.
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yeah man its very close, thats why its tough. How did you do? Did you end up taking it down?
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Some people resteal a lot, some don't. If this is the guys first reraise i think it is a close call. Otherwise it's an insta call for me. When you said he was aggeressive it was a no brainer, then you later said it was his first reraise so that is very different here.
Has he seen you fold to a reraise yet? That and how often you have been raising lately are probably the 2 other most pertinent q's. If your raise percentage is over about 18 percent i insta call as well.
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call - for sure based on your explanation of previous
my only change would be raising 3-4 BB initially,to push away a lot of your A8/A9 considerations on your opponents part
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