Poker Discussion
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
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Am I being results oriented when I say I think I should folded?
*********** # 21 **************
PokerStars Game #20749293392: Tournament #110807131, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2008/09/27 22:07:03 ET
Table '110807131 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: shotgun jo (1595 in chips)
Seat 3: DrWife22 (4150 in chips)
Seat 5: Aleister666 (3905 in chips)
Seat 6: kaymil (1810 in chips)
Seat 9: Billybucks2 (2040 in chips)
Aleister666: posts small blind 75
kaymil: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kaymil [Ad Qh]
Billybucks2: folds
shotgun jo: folds
DrWife22: calls 150
Aleister666: raises 450 to 600
kaymil: raises 1210 to 1810 and is all-in
DrWife22: folds
Aleister666: calls 1210
*** FLOP *** [4d 8h 7s]
*** TURN *** [4d 8h 7s] [8c]
*** RIVER *** [4d 8h 7s 8c] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Aleister666: shows [As Kc] (two pair, Aces and Eights)
kaymil: shows [Ad Qh] (two pair, Aces and Eights - lower kicker)
Aleister666 collected 3770 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3770 | Rake 0
Board [4d 8h 7s 8c Ah]
Seat 2: shotgun jo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: DrWife22 (button) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Aleister666 (small blind) showed [As Kc] and won (3770) with two pair, Aces and Eights
Seat 6: kaymil (big blind) showed [Ad Qh] and lost with two pair, Aces and Eights
Seat 9: Billybucks2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
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Assuming you don't have a read that Aleister is the tightest living human, this is standard. You've got 12 BB and will have to gamble at some point.
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seems like a fold to me, since you're getting called 100% of the time and the chips you win don't mean as much as you being knocked out
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aad
(United States)
2,321
Posts.
Joined
02-05-2008.
09-27-2008 10:28 PM
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In reply to
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aaaaaaalllll iiiiiiiiiin! pretty standard situation.
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 grapsfan: | |
Assuming you don't have a read that Aleister is the tightest living human, this is standard. You've got 12 BB and will have to gamble at some point.
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| NetFan44: | |
seems like a fold to me, since you're getting called 100% of the time and the chips you win don't mean as much as you being knocked out
So being ahead of his range 90% of the time doesnt mean anything?
This is a snap shove imo.
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i'm just throwing the argument out there and nobody seems to actually want to show some analysis why it's a snap shove.
what's your shoving range here phi? what's the villain's raising range?
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| PhiAlphaMTSU: | |
| NetFan44: | |
seems like a fold to me, since you're getting called 100% of the time and the chips you win don't mean as much as you being knocked out
So being ahead of his range 90% of the time doesnt mean anything? This is a snap shove imo.
\
he's raising the other big stack and is commiting himself to the shortstack's 2k chips... His range is at least AJ+. If it were an MTT i'd go with it, but sng play is so much tighter. fold
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It's a close decision, and certainly not the snap shove everyone is saying it is.
If you fold, your equity is $7.66.
| Player |
Chips |
Prob 1st |
Prob 2nd |
Prob 3rd |
Equity |
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Hero |
1660.000000 |
0.1230 |
0.1458 |
0.1836 |
$7.66 |
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Player 2 |
1595.000000 |
0.1181 |
0.1408 |
0.1787 |
$7.40 |
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Player 3 |
4000.000000 |
0.2963 |
0.2680 |
0.2169 |
$14.69 |
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Player 4 |
4205.000000 |
0.3115 |
0.2720 |
0.2129 |
$15.12 |
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Player 5 |
2040.000000 |
0.1511 |
0.1734 |
0.2079 |
$9.13 |
If you shove, I will assume you are called by Aleister, and let's say you win:
| Player |
Chips |
Prob 1st |
Prob 2nd |
Prob 3rd |
Equity |
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Hero |
3755.000000 |
0.2781 |
0.2554 |
0.2169 |
$13.99 |
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Player 2 |
1595.000000 |
0.1181 |
0.1382 |
0.1703 |
$7.27 |
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Player 3 |
4000.000000 |
0.2963 |
0.2615 |
0.2132 |
$14.54 |
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Player 4 |
2110.000000 |
0.1563 |
0.1748 |
0.2015 |
$9.23 |
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Player 5 |
2040.000000 |
0.1511 |
0.1701 |
0.1980 |
$8.97 |
So you risk $7.66 to potentially win $6.33. To balance that risk you must win at least 54.75% of the time.
(7.66/13.99 is 54.75%)
| Hand |
Pot equity |
Wins |
Ties |
| AQo |
54.75% |
1,973,826,252 |
259,528,068 |
| AA-22,AK-A8,KQ-KJ,KTs-K8s,QJs-QTs |
45.25% |
1,609,055,856 |
259,528,068 |
AQo is exactly 54.75% to win against the range of {22+, A8+, KJ+, K8s+, QTs+}.
If you think he is raising that wide, or wider, then your shove is good.
If not, this is a fold.
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