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SNG bubble with AKs
L0bstaM0bsta (United States) 7,917 Posts. Joined 12-14-2006.
12-06-2008 9:26 PM

iwantchipz is shoving 100% of hands...I think this is one of those spots where I don't like to agree with sngwiz...what do you guys think?


PokerStars Game #22689344997: Tournament #125369285, $25+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2008/12/06 22:07:57 ET
Table '125369285 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: thejinx1 (370 in chips)
Seat 2: sin99ha (3550 in chips)
Seat 5: L0bstaM0bsta (4355 in chips)
Seat 9: iwantchipz (5225 in chips)
thejinx1: posts the ante 50
sin99ha: posts the ante 50
L0bstaM0bsta: posts the ante 50
iwantchipz: posts the ante 50
sin99ha: posts small blind 300
L0bstaM0bsta: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to L0bstaM0bsta [Kc Ac]
iwantchipz: raises 4575 to 5175 and is all-in
thejinx1: calls 320 and is all-in
sin99ha: folds
L0bstaM0bsta: ?????

 
 
 

okse54 (United States) 1,028 Posts. Joined 11-28-2007.
12-06-2008 10:04 PM - In reply to

 i like that everyone is saying screw ICM i call here and then someone comes and shows that ICM says call. plus ICM says its a call if CO is shoving only 30%, if hes shoving ATC.....


Reoknows (United States) 973 Posts. Joined 01-26-2008.
12-06-2008 10:05 PM - In reply to

AwesomeO: 
Reoknows: 

snap call then punch the computer when his 10 6 gets there



No offense to you, as this isn't a shot at you, but is anyone else sick of these posts that state "Well call and give the computer a high five when your 9 hits" or "Shove and punch the computer when you run into AA"

It just has been getting on my nerves lately haha but seriously no offense to you at all.
np

MuiMuiBueno (Canada) 823 Posts. Joined 12-06-2007.
12-06-2008 10:06 PM - In reply to

ez call since the shorty called.  if either u or bigstack wins u r guaranteed money.  if u won u r almost guaranteed 2nd and a fav for first.  this is def +EV


Randomizer (United States) 433 Posts. Joined 05-22-2006.
12-06-2008 10:06 PM - In reply to

The key point here is that it's only a call when the shorty puts his chips in.  Otherwise it's a fold 100%.


qjuice14 (United States) 1,583 Posts. Joined 08-29-2007.
12-06-2008 11:52 PM - In reply to

This is a fairly easy call with the shortstack already in the pot.


Thatislife (United States) 3,676 Posts. Joined 10-09-2005.
12-07-2008 12:01 AM - In reply to

Randomizer: 

Id like to hear what Jennifear has to say about this one.



She would say call 100% of the time.

Skitz0Frenik (United States) 369 Posts. Joined 02-18-2008.
12-07-2008 12:16 AM - In reply to

 ^^100% agreed^^


Raoeoiku (Canada) 250 Posts. Joined 08-08-2006.
12-07-2008 12:39 AM - In reply to

Definitely a call after ss calls, which is why chipleader shouldn't be pushing 100% of hands.  If he really is pushing 100%, you couldn't quite call with the AKs if shorty folded, but at least 99+ if you knew he was, 88 is close.


Jennifear (United States) 9,061 Posts. Joined 11-01-2005.
12-07-2008 12:40 AM - In reply to

This is a clear call.

PU CA OC Range
CO 30.0%, 22+ A2s+ A4o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s <<What he should be shoving
BU 99.1%, 22+ 8x+ 72s+ 73o+ 3x+
SB 9.2%, 66+ A9s+ ATo+
BB 8.4%, 77+ ATs+ ATo+ <<Given iwantchips' 30%, this is your proper overcalling range
SB 1.4%, QQ+
BB 0.5%, AA
BB 1.4%, QQ+

If iwantchips is shoving 100%, he is wayyyyyyyy too wide here.  He should be shoving about 1/3 of that... if that!  This is because his lead isn't that big and the button will call for sure, so his risk/reward with low cards like 85o is way too high to make this shove.  In iwantchips' position here, I am only shoving 20-25%, because I expect both blinds to call wider than QQ+, so I have to tighten up from what Nash would say.

If the shortstack folds, you have a close decision.  It's NOT a snapfold like you might think.  The blinds are too high to fold AKs if he is on any two.  The pot odds plus the intangibles from winning the hand would add up to a call.

More on the intangibles that ICM doesn't account for here:

ICM - advice pls - Pocket Fives#3006539

Once the shortstack calls,  you have free reign to call with the top 1/4 of whatever you think that iwantchips is shoving!  Yes, that's right, if you are SURE that iwantchips is on any two, and the shortstack is calling wide as well, you can make this call with hands as weak as KJ, easily!

The reason for this is because your risk of bubbling drops CONSIDERABLY!  In fact, the only way you bubble out is if:

Shorty wins the hand
Big stack is second best
You are third best

Given equal ranges that will only happen 1/6 of the time, but since you have the tightest of the three ranges, that possibility is worse than 1 in 10! 

Therefore, since your risk of bubbling is a lot less, the chips you risk aren't worth three times as much as the chips you stand to gain like they usually are.  That opens up your range.  That's why Nash shows 8.4% here, but only QQ+ if the shortstack folds.

If you want a guide to SNG overcalling so that next time you know what to do in this spot:

For a more detailed explanation, if you are a PXF member, you can look up my article entitled "Ganging Up" there.  Go to the "Training center" and expand the "Blind Straddle" option... go to "Blind Straddle 1" and you can click on the article "Ganging Up".


Seaner23s (United States) 28 Posts. Joined 02-05-2008.
12-07-2008 12:40 AM - In reply to

AK 4 handed????? SNAP CALL ALL DAY


fly44 (United States) 1,154 Posts. Joined 05-29-2008.
12-07-2008 12:56 AM - In reply to

Jennifear: 

This is a clear call.

PU CA OC Range
CO 30.0%, 22+ A2s+ A4o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s <<What he should be shoving
BU 99.1%, 22+ 8x+ 72s+ 73o+ 3x+
SB 9.2%, 66+ A9s+ ATo+
BB 8.4%, 77+ ATs+ ATo+ <<Given iwantchips' 30%, this is your proper overcalling range
SB 1.4%, QQ+
BB 0.5%, AA
BB 1.4%, QQ+

If iwantchips is shoving 100%, he is wayyyyyyyy too wide here.  He should be shoving about 1/3 of that... if that!  This is because his lead isn't that big and the button will call for sure, so his risk/reward with low cards like 85o is way too high to make this shove.  In iwantchips' position here, I am only shoving 20-25%, because I expect both blinds to call wider than QQ+, so I have to tighten up from what Nash would say.

If the shortstack folds, you have a close decision.  It's NOT a snapfold like you might think.  The blinds are too high to fold AKs if he is on any two.  The pot odds plus the intangibles from winning the hand would add up to a call.

More on the intangibles that ICM doesn't account for here:

ICM - advice pls - Pocket Fives#3006539

Once the shortstack calls,  you have free reign to call with the top 1/4 of whatever you think that iwantchips is shoving!  Yes, that's right, if you are SURE that iwantchips is on any two, and the shortstack is calling wide as well, you can make this call with hands as weak as KJ, easily!

The reason for this is because your risk of bubbling drops CONSIDERABLY!  In fact, the only way you bubble out is if:

Shorty wins the hand
Big stack is second best
You are third best

Given equal ranges that will only happen 1/6 of the time, but since you have the tightest of the three ranges, that possibility is worse than 1 in 10! 

Therefore, since your risk of bubbling is a lot less, the chips you risk aren't worth three times as much as the chips you stand to gain like they usually are.  That opens up your range.  That's why Nash shows 8.4% here, but only QQ+ if the shortstack folds.

If you want a guide to SNG overcalling so that next time you know what to do in this spot:

For a more detailed explanation, if you are a PXF member, you can look up my article entitled "Ganging Up" there.  Go to the "Training center" and expand the "Blind Straddle" option... go to "Blind Straddle 1" and you can click on the article "Ganging Up".


I was just wondering where you get a chart like this?

Jennifear (United States) 9,061 Posts. Joined 11-01-2005.
12-07-2008 1:44 AM - In reply to

fly44: 

I was just wondering where you get a chart like this?


Nash ICM Push/Fold Calculator

Specifically the chart for this hand:

ICM Nash Calculator Results
 
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