Poker Discussion
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
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Ive been under the impression that my call here is standard, however, after a friend who was railing me was disturbed to see me make the call, I agreed to post the hand and recieve feedback. Final 3 of an 18 seater turbo sng.
Note the blinds are 400/800 a50, so my M after posting the blind is `~ 7.6.
Villain's M after posting is ~ 6.2.
He's been quite aggressive, and I have him covered, albeit slightly.
PokerStars Game #19472315565: Tournament #100994405, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2008/08/08 - 23:47:12 (ET)
Table '100994405 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: golforejht72 (8855 in chips)
Seat 3: Pungerface (11140 in chips)
Seat 9: mushed1 (7005 in chips)
golforejht72: posts the ante 50
Pungerface: posts the ante 50
mushed1: posts the ante 50
golforejht72: posts small blind 400
Pungerface: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Pungerface [3s 3c]
mushed1: folds
golforejht72: raises 8005 to 8805 and is all-in
Pungerface: calls 8005
*** FLOP *** [Ts 8c Qh]
*** TURN *** [Ts 8c Qh] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [Ts 8c Qh Tc] [Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
golforejht72: shows [9h Qs] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
Pungerface: shows [3s 3c] (two pair, Tens and Threes)
golforejht72 collected 17760 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 17760 | Rake 0
Board [Ts 8c Qh Tc Jd]
Seat 1: golforejht72 (small blind) showed [9h Qs] and won (17760) with a straight, Eight to Queen
Seat 3: Pungerface (big blind) showed [3s 3c] and lost with two pair, Tens and Threes
Seat 9: mushed1 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
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It's a bad call. I don't think M is nearly as important a consideration as relative stack sizes, and I hate being the caller as the chip leader with a very low PP. I don't care how aggressive he's being, you are always racing at best here. Much better had you been able to shove your hand first.
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I think its the "right call" but its such a big call too. 33 is ahead of his range because more than likely 3 handed he does not have another pair, and If it were me and Istill grinded the 16s I would prolly snap call but I hate stacking off here with 33 youre racing no matter what and you could be 20/80. You can definitely get it in with a better holding. Id rather shove KQ then call 33 imo.
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What would your calling requirements be in this spot?
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I call with 88+, AQ+, maybe a few more hands (77, AJ, etc) had he been out of line.
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It's kind of funny, I was playing HU with a regular in a 27$ SNG there about a month or so ago, I had him outchipped slightly, and I caught him shoving 72o on me! He sucked out of course, and when I asked him what in the hell he was doing in the chatbox (I expect better from a regular, winning, multitabler) he told me I was calling too tight, so it was +EV for him to shove every single hand on me.
!
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This is a fold.
The math of it:
If you fold:
| Player |
Chips |
Prob 1st |
Prob 2nd |
Prob 3rd |
Equity |
|
Hero |
10290 |
0.3811 |
0.3478 |
0.2711 |
$83.97 |
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golfor |
9755 |
0.3613 |
0.3478 |
0.2909 |
$82.90 |
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mushed1 |
6955 |
0.2576 |
0.3043 |
0.4381 |
$76.13 |
Should you call, and win:
| Player |
Chips |
Prob 1st |
Prob 2nd |
Prob 3rd |
Equity |
|
Hero |
20045 |
0.7424 |
0.2576 |
0.0000 |
$101.05 (a gain of $17.08, compared to folding) |
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golfor |
0 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
$54.00 |
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mushed1 |
6955 |
0.2576 |
0.7424 |
0.0000 |
$87.95 |
Should you call, and lose:
| Player |
Chips |
Prob 1st |
Prob 2nd |
Prob 3rd |
Equity |
|
Hero |
2285 |
0.0846 |
0.1920 |
0.7233 |
$63.75 (a loss of $20.22, compared to folding) |
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golfor |
17760 |
0.6578 |
0.2890 |
0.0532 |
$97.32 |
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mushed1 |
6955 |
0.2576 |
0.5189 |
0.2235 |
$81.92 |
So, by calling, you are risking $20.22 for a shot to win $17.08
20.22/(20.22+17.08) = 20.22/37.30 = 54.2% <<this is how often you must win to make the call.
Here's the Nash equilibrium for the spot:
| SB |
|
| 56.6%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J2s+ J7o+ T4s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 84s+ 87o 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+ <<what he should be shoving |
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| BB |
| 17.8%, 55+ A4s+ A7o+ K9s+ KTo+ <<your calling range if he is shoving what he should be |
As the math above shows, to balance the risk/reward for this situation, you must win 54.2% of the time against his range.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/holdemOracle.jsp?compute=y&b=&h=57%25&e=54
^^^if you want to adjust his range, you can do so at this link to see what you can call against different shoving ranges
If he is shoving 100% of all hands, this is borderline, just a fold by 0.5%
| Hand |
Pot equity |
Wins |
Ties |
| 100% |
46.31% |
5,720,468,052 |
214,918,884 |
| 33 |
53.69% |
6,650,047,464 |
214,918,884 |
You could call if:
- You had more chips
- He had less chips and couldn't dent you so much.
- This was a 9 man, with a 50/30/20 structure, that rewards first place as opposed to each place individually (18 man is 40/30/20/10)
Problem is, that the chips you risk, because he dents you so much, as worth more than the chips you stand to gain. That's why this is a fold.
Don't shoot yourself for this. You gave away less than sixty cents equity, and learned something new.
Hope that helps!
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God bless you Jennifear! Thanks.
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