Poker Discussion
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
PokerStars Game #13268809771: Tournament #67323357, $25+$2 Hold'em No Limit -
Level X (400/800) - 2007/11/16 - 00:26:47 (ET)
Table '67323357 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: PythalesLFB (1867 in chips)
Seat 3: NutPopper (7665 in chips)
Seat 6: Chrono526 (3968 in chips)
PythalesLFB: posts the ante 50
NutPopper: posts the ante 50
Chrono526: posts the ante 50
Chrono526: posts small blind 400
PythalesLFB: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chrono526 [9d Ac]
NutPopper: raises 6400 to 7200
----------------------------------------------------
this guy is a very good thinking player, so I know that he is going to be
pushing ATC in this spot. Knowing that do I make the call despite the BB being
very short. I know he has less than 3 BBs but, it's not as if he's all-in in the
BB or anything. If I call I'm about 60% against two random cards. Worth the risk
at this point. Tell me what you think.
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Looking at the size of the blinds relative to the stacks, I would argue that fold equity should have left this table a long time ago, somewhere around the 200-400 level. You're going to have to win showdowns to win SNG's, because no one who's any good at SNG's is folding a remotely attractive hand at this point, regardless of the size of their stack. If I shove 7-6 and lose with it, then I get dealt 7-6 the following hand I'll call a shove with it for the majority of my stack without much hesitation. If I lose two huge pots on consecutive hands with seven high, then I just shake my head, accept third place money, and realize that this particular SNG it just wasn't meant to be. And yes, I'm completely serious. The people who have seen me play hundreds of SNG's can confirm this.
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Ozzie
(United States)
2,937
Posts.
Joined
02-01-2007.
11-16-2007 1:18 AM
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In reply to
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"you are ahead against any intelligent player's shoving range"
ahead isnt all that matters here. if you call, shorty folds ands youre probably slightly ahead, but still looking at getting 3rd about 40% of the time. if you win, you become the big stack, but i personally think thats why this is not an ATC shove from nutpopper. if you fold, bb is almost certainly calling, and if nutpopper loses, it' s a brand new game. he has nothing invested, why would he risk that happening with 93??? it's almost certain that somone is calling him here and he wouldnt want to lose a pot to either of you. he'll still have a pretty loose range, but i cant imagine it being any two.
"and you are certainly ahead against the BB"
bold assertion for having no information...
i fold it.
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I'll quantify this, resilient.
Being a favorite is not enough here. Chrono has to win this hand more often than he loses it to break even.
If he calls and loses, he wins $45.
If he folds, it would depend on who won the hand what his equity was, but it would average $75.
If he called and won, it would depend on what the BBs calling range was (it should be smallish, but who knows), and it would also depend on if he beat both players or just the chipleader, but his equity would be somewhere in the $96 range on average.
Since he risks $30 to win $21 (very rough math), he would need a hand that would win about 58-59% of the time against that shoving range to call. That's why his range is somewhat tight here.
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this is a call for me. you've already made the money, moving up into 2nd doesnt mean that much, especially if the shortstack calls and wins. so you might as well call with your ace high as youre ahead of his range or will suckout enough times to make this the best play in this scenario.
as far as shoving any 2. I will shove all but the very worst hands, because most of the time, shorty will fold junk in a lame attempt to limp into 2nd. with blinds of 400/800 and 7000 chips. if you dont shove every hand, i believe this is more of a chip spew than to shove any 2
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Ozzie
(United States)
2,937
Posts.
Joined
02-01-2007.
11-16-2007 1:26 AM
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In reply to
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fair enough... but would you shove 7 high in this spot if you were nutpopper? i understand the sng is not going to last much longer and to win it youre gonna have to start playing some big pots hoping to get lucky, but certainly you dont have to make this hand one of those spots.
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Shoving most hands in NutPopper's spot is not good. Your assertion that most of the time shorty folds is not even remotely correct. In the event that Chrono folds, shorty will never fold 23o here to NutPopper's shove. He will call 100% of the time.
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Ozzie
(United States)
2,937
Posts.
Joined
02-01-2007.
11-16-2007 1:38 AM
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In reply to
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in order to come in first, hero will likely have to win 2 all-ins. this is a chance to notch the first one, but afterwards he'll still have to win another. and losing this one will likely put him out in third.
if he folds and the short stack goes out, he's still 2 all ins away from 1st, but this time theres no prospect of 3rd. if shorty wins, well then it's bout anybody's game.
im not folding qq here, but i just dont think a9 would give me that big of an edge to chance a 3rd place finish here.
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that makes sense, thank you.
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apparently you didnt listen to what he just said
and yes he would shove 7 high
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unless shorty is a complete moron who knowns nothing about end game for sit n gos. i think you give too much credit to players who probably know nothing about sit n go strategy. given all the dead money already in the pot, I think shoving is even money at worst usually
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Drarr
(United Kingdom)
139
Posts.
Joined
11-14-2005.
11-16-2007 6:05 AM
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In reply to
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I've only scanned through the replies and haven't ran any numbers but it looks like a call to me
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thanks for the post.
clearly this is a situation where there are lots of different opinions.
also clearly an important decision point in these sngs.
I must admit to not be a star at ICM but to me its just a mathematical model to account for profit of folding in these situations.
I have to say that no math involved i feel no need to get into this pot since BB will call. He may even call if you do and now you are three way with A9o.
Folding gives you good chance to walk into second with enuf chips to fight. BBs chips going to Nutpopper is no big shakes here IMHO. You are out the SB and antes- agian no big deal.
further I hate to be the monkey in the middle....
thanks for the post
brian
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If nutpopper is shoving any two and the BB is calling with any two if you fold and overcalling with around ~12% if you call, what is EVcall vs.EVfold? Because that's the situation it seems like we are in here.
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if one assumes that NutPopper is a good player w/ICM knowledge/application, then i come up with this
a) NutPopper is shoving 41% of hands ( 33+,A2+,K4o+,K2s+,Q8o+,Q5s+,J9o+,J7s+,T8s+) if he knows that the BB is calling with any two.
b) Given that NutPopper is shoving 41% of hands, from the SB we need a VERY tight range to call here b/c of a) above. This range according to SnGPT is 5% (99+,AQo+,AJs+)
c) given a) above, if you call with A9o, you are losing $1.79 on average.
one thing about your (OP) post you may want to consider is your belief that you "know he is going to be pushing ATC in this spot". if he is truly a good SnG player, then he is NOT pushing any two in this spot and should be restricting himself to the ranges above to maximize $EV.
assuming NutPopper is playing close to optimum, this is a fold.
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Chrono
(United States)
162
Posts.
Joined
11-01-2006.
11-16-2007 11:54 AM
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In reply to
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wow! I really appreciate all the posts so far. I was expecting everyone to come in a say "this is a call 100% of the time, learn how to play idiot!". Anyway, everybody here is going to have to trust me on this, NutPoppers range is 100%/ATC/every hand! I've played countless sngs w/ him, so just trust me. Knowing that his range was ATC and that the BB was super super super tight, sorry for not pointing that out (made the convo more interesting tho). I could serious see the BB folding in this spot if I had not of called.
So yes, I called w/ the A9o and he showed up w/ 82o and spiked an 8 on the flop. GG me :-(. Knowing his range is ATC does anyone's opinions change.
And for whoever said make this call on the bubble, it would have to depend on the stack of the 4th man as well. So for fun lets say....
(SB)I have ~3500 (BB)SS has ~1800 (BU)Nutpopper has ~6400 Other guy has ~1800
ironically the bubble just burst a few hands ago still at the 300/600 level. anyway what do you think about that?
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