Hand Advice Post

raise all your chips, only 2 people that can bust you on the bubble and it's for pretty much their whole stack

UTG I fold. 99 has to get all the way around the table, and you don't want to be knocked out or totally crippled here. One more orbit, someone is getting knocked out and you will still have a stack to work with.

I'm probably always pushing this here.

moman1965:

UTG

17.9%, 22+ A7s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s

Here is your range to shove. So 99 is an easy shove IMO.

TheVillageGrinder:

moman1965:

UTG

17.9%, 22+ A7s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s

Here is your range to shove. So 99 is an easy shove IMO.

This seems way to wide here, considering teh equity that i already have.  How did you derive this?

Ok, so as long as we are here to learn...Does this take into consideration that we are on the bubble and I'm sitting quite comfortably right now in 3rd with a pretty large gap to the rest of the pack? 

I mean i have a grasp on fold equity but it just doesn't seem worth risking the fairly strong spot i have here by shovingT9 and KJ, etc. 

How does it figure in opponents calling ranges?

Shove this because your hand is too strong, but you can shove a lot of hands that you may otherwise be considering folding, such as KJs.  The reason for this is that you have a messive amount of leverage against everyone except for SantiagoRain, who can't really hurt you.  They are going to be calling with a very thin range of hands, and so you'll win the blinds a good 50% of the time, if not more, uncontested.

TheVillageGrinder:

Ok, so as long as we are here to learn...Does this take into consideration that we are on the bubble and I'm sitting quite comfortably right now in 3rd with a pretty large gap to the rest of the pack? 

I mean i have a grasp on fold equity but it just doesn't seem worth risking the fairly strong spot i have here by shovingT9 and KJ, etc. 

How does it figure in opponents calling ranges?

Helps a great deal.  I haven't sat down and studied the game like i should, esp as related to work through the math like you have here.  Hopefully someday i will find the discipline to do it, even tho it doesnt come that easy for me.  But thanx for your help.

 the ranges prescribed above seem a little off to me.

I dont know if payout structure has been added in or not, but as somebody who plays in these very regularly I would say that you are much better off shoving atc or thereabouts with less players to act.

99 is a clear shove here and from a quick look I am prolly shoving a little tighter than the icm calculator has stated. I would run  this in sng wiz, but am having difficulties creating the custom payout structure.

One thing these programs do not take into account is future ev calculations. With your stack you have significant equity in the future stages of this tournament and from experiance the players (even at the 27 level) play extremely sub optimumly. The majority of the time I will not pass up even teh slightest edges, but here shoving 18% or w/e seems way too much.

I agree that the ranges are a little wide. But remember a few things about ICM. First, it takes into consideration that everyone is playing the same way. We all know that they don't. Second, since most people call wider than what ICM says, we have to tighten up our shoving ranges some. Not saying that I would shove K9 from early position, but 99 is a clear shove here.
And finally, in regards to shoving ranges, remember that the cards only matter IF you are called. Most of the time, a stack like yours will go uncontested. THe reason the ranges are wide is because if you are called by overs, these are the ranges that play well. 40/60 dogs aren't the worst thing here since you will win a lot uncontested to make taking a few flips plus EV in the long run.