|
pretty ugly hand.
First, it's ok to fold QTo here preflop (obviously). If you want to 3-bet, I suppose it's ok on the button, but unless you have a read on your utg raiser, I really don't like it.
On the flop, you have top pair, but the villain leads out? He could have a set already on this dry board or J9 suited or 76 suited and semibluffs here.
If you think your T is good, you should raise hard here to force off the draws. Your min raise gives perfect odds for J9 or 76 to call and see a turn and of course any set will of course try to get as much value from you as possible.
On the turn, 76 just got there. You are now crushed by a set, a higher T, an overpair, and a straight and I really don't think you are going to get a whole lot of value out of a hand that you are beating. He leads the turn. I think if you are going to call here, you have to call the river, but it's going to cost you. I think that if you were going to try to win this hand, I would have raised harder on the flop.
Hell, you re-raised an utg player preflop and re-raised on the flop and your opponent leads the turn? They really don't seem to be all that concerned about you holding AA or KK so I really don't think your QT is good.
You say at the bottom that you were thinking of shoving to get him to fold on the river. You wanted to represent a set of 5s and get him to fold AK/KQ? This makes no sense at all. If he has AK/KQ, you want him to bluff and you can call. What kind of hand are you re-raising on the button with a 5 in it? You already represented a much better hand than that, you can't change your story now and say, "hey, I was just kidding earlier with that preflop re-raise and my flop re-raise; I was really hold 75 suited and just caught my miracle card!" The fact is, even AA and KK are just calling his river bet the way this hand played out so you can shove if you want, but he's only calling you with a hand that beats you and he's probably not folding anything that has you beat.
If this was me, I would call the flop bet and re-evaluate on the turn. If he lead into me again considering one of the draws got there, I would just fold there. It doesn't make a lot of sense to keep playing a pot when you may already be drawing dead.
|