What do you guys think?

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What do you guys think?

By AawwNutz on 08-24-2005 9:26 PM

Hand #7929816-73 at Wed9pmA-013 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 24/Aug/05 22:11:05

     kold is at seat 0 with 3855.
     AawwNuts is at seat 1 with 9200.
     Moraine is at seat 2 with 2845.
     PillPacker is at seat 3 with 6905.
     Jack Straw is at seat 4 with 2350.
     bmpek is at seat 5 with 6370.
     twelvem is at seat 6 with 2585.
     jackleggbob is at seat 7 with 2530.
     TrishTheFish is at seat 8 with 1860.
     rockford hawk is at seat 9 with 1735.
     The button is at seat 0.

     AawwNuts posts the small blind of 30.
     Moraine posts the big blind of 60.

     kold: -- --
     AawwNuts: Ks Kc
     Moraine: -- --
     PillPacker: -- --
     Jack Straw: -- --
     bmpek: -- --
     twelvem: -- --
     jackleggbob: -- --
     TrishTheFish: -- --
     rockford hawk: -- --

Pre-flop:

          PillPacker raises to 210.   Jack Straw folds.   bmpek
          folds.   twelvem folds.   jackleggbob folds.
          TrishTheFish folds.   rockford hawk folds.   kold
          folds.   AawwNuts re-raises to 360.   Moraine folds.
          PillPacker goes all-in for 6905.   AawwNuts folds,
          showing Ks Kc.   PillPacker is returned 6545
          (uncalled).

Hand #7929816-73 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
PillPacker wins 780.
----------------------------------------------------------------

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Hand Advice

Re(1): What do you guys think? In reply to

By Stinger885 on 08-24-2005 9:34 PM

I think you might have made a good laydown. Your small re-raise looks like a monster, so he probably thinks you will call his all-in. I think there's a great chance he has AA.

Re(1): What do you guys think? In reply to

By Rico Rich on 08-24-2005 10:44 PM

see im not that good, but i would think that the math (and im not a math guy either) would be on your side to call w/ KK everytime. how often will the other guy be holding AA.

Re(1): What do you guys think? In reply to

By gambowler on 08-24-2005 11:08 PM

I play low limits and low buyin tourneys, so my thoughts might not be correct for this level tourney, but here they are anyway.

I doubt he had aces, and thus don't really like the laydown, though I can't argue with it.

First, I don't think he aces for two reasons. 1) Since you are the chipleader at the table, your min reraise might just be a cheap way to take control of the pot. Obviously, I have no info on how you've been playing, how he's been playing, etc. But you could make that play with low-mid pairs or AJ/AQ. He might have a hand like JJ or AQ that he doesn't want to play after the flop out of position. 2) He's second in chips. The only person he can double thru is you, so if he has aces why force you to call off 75% of your stack preflop.

Second, if I don't think he has aces, I obviously don't agree with laying down the best hand. He knows he is one of two people who can hurt your stack, and probably knows that you only make the call with aces (as you showed). But...you still have the chiplead when you fold. This early in the tourney, keeping your big stack is important. Against any ace, you're not a huge favorite and you'd have to call off most of your stack. Having and keeping a big stack throughout the tourney can be a huge advantage (i forgot what beanie called it in a post a while back, stack equity, or something).

I think this is the first time I haven't agreed with something you've posted, so I'd love to hear some feedback. Regardless, I appreciate the post. Hands like this help a lot. Thanks.

gambowler

Re(1): What do you guys think? In reply to

By boozhwaa on 08-24-2005 11:30 PM

I'm really curious to hear why you folded?
I would have called, unless i knew something about him that said Aces, because i've seen too many people make similar moves with hands like AK, QQ, and JJ, and occasionally AQ or 10-10. He might not have even been that strong if he was feeling particularly frisky, but i don't know anything about how he plays.

Re(2): What do you guys think? In reply to

By beauright on 08-25-2005 8:26 AM

Okay, this is hard to try and give advise to such a good player, but I'd like to hear your reply to this.

I am going to assume that it is a trny with a buyin of decent size so that I can give the guy some respect.

I understand why you folded. Why risk the whole tournament early? And this could be the type of player that extremely over bets big hands to look like he is buying the hand.

Obviously it is a decision that should depend on how aggressive this guy has been so far.  Has he has raised anything weak, has he been aggressive when raised before, etc.?

I don't want to give you an answer to how I would play your cards, but how I would play his. In this situation it might be helpful to consider why he would play AA like this.  I know I wouldn't play AA heads up and in position this way. But thats just me. With hands like AA, I like to have a single caller especially in position.

Next-- Why would he try to run you off this hand if he has AA? Either he is overbetting strong hands to induce a call   OR   he is a weak player that is simply scared to play post flop.

I put him on QQ or AK without information of his previous play, but then again you would have been putting a big stack in relatively early and for only a small pot. So once again I understand your fold.

Personally, I would call in this situation because I am still going to have an okay stack to play with if I lose (relative to blinds), but a big stack to Bully with if I win. Immediate respect from the entire table regardless.

For what its worth,
beauright

Re(1): What do you guys think? In reply to

By TheViper on 08-25-2005 10:18 AM

You have 150x the BB at the $60 level. I dont think I would want to risk 3/4ths of my stack here either. You clearly dont need to take this risk. If you're outplaying them so far, you got enough play in ya to keep doing it.

If the pay schedule was tilted to first place, I would be more willing to call here. The flatter it is, the less inclined I am. And the more you can outplay this table, the less I am as well. And given your stack size, thats probably the case.

Re(1): What do you guys think? In reply to

By ferrengi on 08-25-2005 10:27 AM

I don't know AawwNutz, this one is a tough judgement call.
Any reads or info on this player?

If I were holding aces and just got reraised, I would call and be delighted to get that kind of action. The last thing I would do is go all-in. I have no way to know that you also picked up a monster of K-K and I would try to extract more chips on each street instead of making this huge raise.
It is possible that your opponent wanted you to think this way and therefore played the hand in this manner so that you wouldn't put him on aces. However, I wouldn't make that assumption with no history of playing against this person.

Without knowing anything about how my opponent plays, I call in this situation.

Re(1): What do you guys think? In reply to

By da_bill on 08-25-2005 11:18 AM

I don't think your reraise was big enough to get respect here, and he took advantage of what he thought was weakness. But his all-in reraise is puzzling. Does that mean weakness or just feigning weakness... hmmmmm....

Anyway, assuming pillpacker is a strong player we can put him on one of the following three hands:
AK, QQ, AA.

there is only one way to make KK, so we'll just assume this isnt a holding.

Using some rough numbers:

you are a 2:1 favorite over AK and there are 8 ways to make this hand (knowing you hold two kings)
you are a 4:1 favorite over QQ and there are 6 ways to make this hand
you are a 4:1 dog vs AA and there are 6 ways to make the hand.

so, of the 20 hands he might have using rough numbers:

10% of the time it's a stone cold bluff and we'll win about 80% of the time vs a random holding
36% of the time we're up against AK, and of those we'll win 66% of the time
27% of the time we're up against QQ, and of those we'll win 80% of the time
27% of the time we're up against AA, and of those we'll win 20% of the time

grand total: 58.8%. (8% + 23.8% + 21.6% + 5.4%)

This is a pretty marginal edge, so, in the end I'd say at this stage of the tournament with your chip position, Good lay down. (but you already knew that :)

GL!
Bill

Re(1): What do you guys think? In reply to

By Seykota on 08-25-2005 1:01 PM

Thanks for the scenario Awwwutz. This was similar to a question I posted a couple of weeks ago. It's hard to say whether to laydown or not without seeing how the other player plays. I know that I have laid down KK twice preflop and not regretted it both times. Both times would have put me all in, however. In each case I didn't put my opponent on aces but on A-anything else. All it takes is another ace on the board to beat the hand. I see a lot of people here saying only if you think your opponent has AA should you lay it down.

I am fairly new to poker, but recently read Super System 2. I briefly recall reading a passage in the book that says NLHE was meant to be played after the flop not before it. (Or something like this - I know I butchered it.) Since reading this my All In bets have been reduced and I think my results have improved.

Re(1): What do you guys think? In reply to

By NuclearSteve on 08-25-2005 2:43 PM

There are a few factors to look at here:

Pot Odds?
After all the raising, there is 7565 in the pot. It will cost AwwNutz another 6905 to win 7565. So, he's getting odds of 1.09 to 1. That's basically an even bet... not so hot. Based on the Pot Odds alone I would fold.

Hand Odds?
Obviously when you see that AwwNutz has the second best hand in the game, hand odds like this will tell you to call any bet including an even bet. Based on Hand Odds alone I call.

How Much Time Invested In the Tourney?
If it's early in the tourney I definitely make this call because I havn't invested much time. If it's late in the tourney there is a premium on survival and picking your best spots to extract chips. That means you are always looking for the best of it. In this situation, an even bet is not getting the best of it. Let's say there is a 15% chance that the guy has Aces. Let's say that there is another 15% chance that he could be sucked out on even if he has the guy beat (especially if the guys has A/K and lands an Ace). So, that's a 30% chance that AwwNuts will lose. Again, why would you risk your respectable chip stack for an even bet??

Risk/Reward?
AwwNutz has really only risked 390 in chips on this hand. That's only 4.2% of his chip stack.... that's nothing. He can easily walk away here and look for less risky ways to extract chips. From a risk/reward standpoint, I would fold.

Opponent?
Has he been tight and aggressive or is he a loose cannon? I suspect one of the major reasons AwwwNutz folded was because this guys table image was tight.

Overall, I fold this hand if it's late in the tourney and the opponent is tight. I call my opponent no matter what if it's early. If it's middle of the tourney I would proabably call, but would be happier if the pot odds were a little better. (1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1 would be much better).

Good laydown AwwNutz. Where'd you finish in the tourney?

Re(2): What do you guys think? In reply to

By NuclearSteve on 08-25-2005 2:48 PM

No Way!

Re(2): What do you guys think? In reply to

By NuclearSteve on 08-25-2005 2:49 PM

Ed, is this really you... the stock trader?? If so, it's an honor to post to you!

Re(2): What do you guys think? In reply to

By XHLbiz on 08-25-2005 3:07 PM

I had an entire post written out about why he didn't have aces and then the more I think about the situation, the more I need to know about it. He may have had it. How many times the bb did this guy normally raise and how many times the bb normally drove the table out of the game? If 3.5 was about a normal raise from him then I could easily have him on less of a hand. At that point he could've been reacting to you defending your blinds and/or think you were trying to gain the advantage going to the flop, then thinking his QQ was the best hand and was willing to take the pot there without the risk of an A or K hitting. With position on you after the flop, I think he would've let you see the flop with AA after maybe getting a little more money from you pre-flop but not all-in just yet. This all assuming that his original pre-flop raise wasn't out of character at all for him or that table. If it was then I can see how you could put him on AA. Great post.

Re(1): What do you guys think? In reply to

By Jack Straw on 08-25-2005 4:03 PM

First time poster. I make no claims to be a great, or even very good, player.
I remember seeing this and thinking you laid down the winner. I thought PillPacker would make that move with a wide range of hands.
Looking at it a day later, however, I think you made a good decision. If you called and lost, either by being behind or by getting sucked out on, your tournament prospects are severly damaged. If you win, I am not sure how much it will affect your eventual outcome, as it is still pretty early in the tourney. By folding, you still are a big stack and can still play the bully or just look for good opportunities.
I know you were still going when I busted out around 26th and coupled with the fact that you couldn't win a race to save your life, attests to the good decisions you made in the tournament.
That said, I probably would still call. Like I said, I don't claim to be a great player.