Hand Advice Post

I am not a pro, but do play a LOT of SNGs and have learned from one of the best (Jennifear). He would be the only person I would shy away from in this situation here. His stack is too close to yours in size and I don't think he makes this raise without a monster hand here (If he were just stealing, he would probably shove since he has basically 10 BBs left). IF he has the goods, you are crippled and the short stack. If you had a massively dominating stack, then maybe. But as played here, it's a fold.

I think I'm only shoving AA-KK here, maybe QQ if they have been doing this a lot. Why play anything else at this point, remembering also you are about to get the button.

I think you are carrying the "shove any two" beyond the expected situation.

When You shove any two, you are thinking you will be taking down blinds and antes uncontested more than you will be called and wining.

When one of your opponents puts in a significant portion of his/her chips; you can not realistically expect to get a fold more than you get a called.  Your fold equity leverage is significantly degraded in the situation you present.

The fact that this opponent bets approximately 37% of his stack (pot commitment); it indicates significant strength and he is looking for action.  You have almost no fold equity (unless he's an idiot) and will have to show up with the best hand at showdown.  With blinds and antes and his bet, he will be getting better than 2:1 pot odds to call any bet with the remainder of his chips.

Pot has 100 + 200 + 400 + 1600 = 2300

Opponent has (2765) behind.  Your raise amount is limited to the remainder of his stack.

You call adds 2300 + 1400 + his stack (2765) from you = 6465 pot.

He now has to call 2765 to win 6465 and you offer him Pot Odds of 6465:2765 or 2.34:1.  He will almost always be correct to call your preflop all-in even if you show him your hand and he is beat before calling.  He only has to expect about 30% equity in making the call all-in.

You can't shove wide here, because your fold equity is low.  Shove blind only when your opponent is likely to fold.

He's going to call a great majority of the time unless:

- He understands ICM
- He chooses not to ignore it
- He doesn't have a big hand
- He is dumb enough to raise/fold here.

You need to treat this raise as a shove.  You can call with any hand that wins 64% of the time.

Given this information:

- If he is raising 10% of his hands, you may play back with:  QQ+.
- If he is raising 25% of his hands, you may play back with: JJ+, AKs.
- If he is raising 50% of his hands, you may play back with: 99+ AQs+ AKo
- If he is raising any two cards, you may play back with: 77+, ATs+, AQo+.

Throw his range in here to get an exact answer of what you can play back with:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/holdemOracle.jsp?compute=y&b=&h=%7Bput+his+range+in+here%7D&e=64



Hope that helps!