Hand Advice
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
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Full Tilt Poker Game #15786689767: $3 + $0.30 KO Sit & Go (115741021), Table 4 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:07:18 ET - 2009/11/04 Seat 1: whalezy (15,641) Seat 2: Shadow1980 (7,064) Seat 3: mazzakane (3,565) Seat 5: jrowe420 (18,950) Seat 6: Rustynuts2 (13,550) Seat 8: sandieko (7,195) Seat 9: Jezzman30 (30,180) whalezy antes 125 Shadow1980 antes 125 mazzakane antes 125 jrowe420 antes 125 Rustynuts2 antes 125 sandieko antes 125 Jezzman30 antes 125 jrowe420 posts the small blind of 500 Rustynuts2 posts the big blind of 1,000 The button is in seat #4 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Jezzman30 [Kc As] sandieko folds Jezzman30 raises to 3,000 whalezy folds Shadow1980 folds mazzakane folds jrowe420 folds Rustynuts2 calls 2,000 *** FLOP *** [Ts 6h Qc] Rustynuts2 bets 10,425, and is all in Jezzman30 has 15 seconds left to act......
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Seat 9: Jezzman30 (30,180)
Seat 6: Rustynuts2 (13,550)
Just wondering why you would want to risk 1/3 of your stack with that flop? You are not really getting the right price to draw to 3 A's, 3 K's, and 4J's.
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^^^^ agreed. Unless you have a solid read that the villain shoves flops with nothing you need to fold here.
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Fold. The only hands I could see you being ahead of here are KJ and maybe J9 unless of course you have a read on this player that tells you otherwise.
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forget the sigh, insta fold. please post some tough spots in the future, not a no brainer imo
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I don't think this is a clear cut fold like everyone's making it out to be. You have pot odds of roughly 1.7 to 1, thus needing 37% in equity vs his range for a call to be +cEV. So let's say his range is underpairs, a bunch of random tens, low queens, open enders and never two pairs or sets: 77,55-22,ATs,KJs-KTs,QJs,Q9s,J9s+,T9s,ATo,KJo-KTo,QJo,Q9o,J9o+,T9o
You have 42% in equity actually, which is significantly better than what you need. That range doesn't even account for random spazzes with no pair no draw, AJ, gutters, etc, so you might actually be closer to 45ish%. It's a pretty counter intuitive spot but math says call.
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Personally, I would not call in this situation, even if the math says that I should. Thanks for the math write up though, very cool contribution.
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