Hand Advice
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
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The email sent to me, posted with permission from the student:
Normally this would be a CLEAR fold with AK in this spot. However, WACKO has been a nutso. He had the huge chip lead 5 handed, and both T-MONEY and Mystery were below 1K in chips, but WACKO has been raising waaay too much, even for the big stack, and he has doubled them up twice each with crap hands. T-MONEY has been playing pretty well and obv knows this info about about WACKO. Given this info and the fact that if I call and win the hand I have second locked up and a 3:1 lead headsup, can we justify a call here instead of the fold?
I folded, but I want your opinion.
Full Tilt Poker Game $22 + $2 Sit & Go (Turbo) Table 1 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em -
Seat 2: WACKO (3,145)
Seat 3: T-MONEY (3,725)
Seat 4: Hero (3,280)
Seat 6: MysterySoldier (3,350)
Hero posts the small blind of 250
MysterySoldier posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ac Kd]
WACKO raises to 1,750
T-MONEY raises to 3,725, and is all in
Hero ??
I'll post my answer below
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Hold on a sec. Shouldn't we take in consideration on the type of plater that just shoved, weather he's on a steal or not. Why was that not mentioned or is that out of the scope of this thread?
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 daphishermen: | |
Jen,
I appreciate your post and your insight is always valuable.
I realize what you are saying with ranges and whatnot, however is it possible that you can post the $EV as well so we can see what a call will actually cost us?
Thanks.
I haven't done one of these in awhile, so I'll stab at it to see if I am at all ok (Jen, let me know if I am off...)
Fold and Wacko Wins...
Player 1
7040.000000 0.5215 0.3139 0.1426 $75.92
Player 2
580.000000 0.0430 0.0708 0.1355 $13.82
Player 3
3030.000000 0.2244 0.3147 0.3527 $54.88
Player 4
2850.000000 0.2111 0.3006 0.3692 $53.38
Fold and T Money Wins...
Player 1
0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00
Player 2
7620.000000 0.5644 0.3144 0.1212 $79.35
Player 3
3030.000000 0.2244 0.3509 0.4246 $59.88
Player 4
2850.000000 0.2111 0.3347 0.4542 $58.77
Call and Win....
Player 1
0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00
Player 2
445.000000 0.0330 0.1109 0.8561 $43.75
Player 3
10205.000000 0.7559 0.2281 0.0160 $89.02
Player 4
2850.000000 0.2111 0.6610 0.1279 $65.23
Call and Lose...you have zero equity (well not PRECISELY, since you could beat T Money and lose to Wacko and still have 135 in chips, which is practically negligible, so we'll leave that out)
So, if we fold our average equity is (54.88+59.88)/2 = 57.38...In reality this will be a little higher, since we can assume rightly that Wacko going into this with the wider range and T money will win this pot more than 50% of the time, giving us a little higher equity than 57.38...but for simplification we'll use a straight arithmetic mean of 57.38
So, we stand to win $31.64, but have to risk $57.38 to get there...
$57.38/89.02 = 64.5%...so we need a hand that is going to scoop this pot three way 64.5% of the time
Then we can plug some ranges into POkerstove and see that clearly AK is not even close to getting this done
AA is ~73% to win if we give Wacko a top 50% range and the other guy a top 15% range...
KK is right around the cutoff in this same scenario...
QQ is about ~55%
AKo is about ~45%....
So, when looking at this from a $EV perspective, with AK we are going to scoop this pot a little under half the time when we need to be scooping it a little under 2/3's of the time in order for the call to be +$EV
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 Dissident: | |
ok I can see that in the fact that if I call then Wacko can fold I suppose in hopes that I lose and he eeeeks into 3rd. however
I still dont see myself folding AK in this spot and In all honesty I
dont think you would before punching a bunch of numbers into some
calculation. (I could be wrong here)
I might request time but in the end I think im making the call as I want to win this thing not finish 3rd or 2nd
She
would certainly fold there. I would have folded without even hitting
time honestly...my eyes would get big and I'd muck and laugh at what an
idiot Wacko is. When you play enough sngs you'll realize this is an
easy fold actually. | |
^^^
I have played a fair amount of sng's and I still dont see myself folding here...
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As has been laid out here, the math says fold (even if your intuition says call).
Besides, folding here and gaining the equity is not giving up on first place, as some assume. You'll have about 25% of the chips, as will MysterySoldier (assuming he folds), while one player will be left with 50% (and quite possibly a terrible player in WACKO). This is in no way being "resigned to 2nd or 3rd".
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