Hand Advice
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CarbonPoker · Full Tilt · Cake Poker · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Bodog
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Villain has been mostly tight, but overbets preflop when playing hands. This seems to be the common theme (this is my first $5.40 double or nothing). Thought I'd give one a try. Moving along, I'm pretty sure this is the correct move here. Risking half my stack just calling preflop is completely out. Otherwise, I'd be playing for basically my entire stack in the 2nd level. Could be overbetting a higher pair, AK, AQ, maybe 1010 or 99 are my guesses.
PokerStars Game #34965697160: Tournament #209892094, $5.00+$0.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2009/11/05 16:54:10 ET
Table '209892094 1' 10-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: burrbur (1230 in chips)
Seat 2: Elfrieda Mae (1505 in chips)
Seat 3: vacajrs (2485 in chips)
Seat 4: BLT24BLR (1050 in chips)
Seat 6: cojhouse (1900 in chips)
Seat 7: MFT77 (1455 in chips)
Seat 8: JepsterO (800 in chips)
Seat 9: PAasKKaL (1995 in chips)
Seat 10: MetalGod666 (2580 in chips)
JepsterO: posts small blind 15
PAasKKaL: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MetalGod666 [Jh Jd]
MetalGod666: raises 60 to 90
burrbur: folds
Elfrieda Mae: folds
vacajrs: raises 1140 to 1230
BLT24BLR: folds
cojhouse: folds
MFT77: folds
JepsterO: folds
PAasKKaL: folds
MetalGod666: folds
Uncalled bet (1140) returned to vacajrs
vacajrs collected 225 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 225 | Rake 0
Seat 1: burrbur folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Elfrieda Mae folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: vacajrs collected (225)
Seat 4: BLT24BLR folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: cojhouse folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: MFT77 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: JepsterO (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: PAasKKaL (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 10: MetalGod666 folded before Flop
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Don't play the DONs myself, but I'd definitely be calling here. Hard to imagine villain is going to over bet jam here so big with QQ, KK, or AA... and you're ahead of everything. And I'd be happy to race vs. AK/AQ here, as a win here and you're obviously gonna bink the $5, and even with the ~1200 chip loss you would still be competing. I think villain's range here includes 77+, and AQo+... JJ = +EV... imo.
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^^^ agree you are most likely ahead of his range. If he turns over QQ+ make sure you note it for if you ever see villain at your table again.
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I don't play don's but this seems like it mite be a fold. With how flat the payout structure is the $EV gained is probably not that significant but I don't really know and any math based on a random's supposed spaz shove range probably won't be that accurate.
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If he's done this a few times already, it's a pretty easy call I'd think. The last time I was up against someone like this in the first round, they showed 82o or some nonsense and I doubled up right up front.
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Fold, no need to gamble in these. You want to be the one shoving not calling shoves. Your stack is solid right now so save chips so you have fold equity when bubble comes around. Gaining chips doesnt give enough of an avantage to justify calling here.
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Thanks for the input everyone. I probably won't play these much as they really aren't worthwhile. As the sng progressed, everyone started playing extremely tight like I'd never seen before especially in a $5 tourney.
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he sounds like a player who is fishing not playing poker. He has a pair smaller than yours. hes one of those play pocket pairs and ace-x guys. he overbets when opens,this means hes counting on others to make mistakes. You have to call there, you cant let people shove over your jacks. If he had ace ace he would have made it obvious by doubling your bet. I know these players. he had 88-99-10 possibly ak. Mathematicly your ahead of 75 percent of his range you might see qq here a few times. i think this is an expectef value play of +70 percent
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 1deeznuts1: | |
he sounds like a player who is fishing not playing poker. He has a pair smaller than yours. hes one of those play pocket pairs and ace-x guys. he overbets when opens,this means hes counting on others to make mistakes. You have to call there, you cant let people shove over your jacks. If he had ace ace he would have made it obvious by doubling your bet. I know these players. he had 88-99-10 possibly ak. Mathematicly your ahead of 75 percent of his range you might see qq here a few times. i think this is an expectef value play of +70 percent
This is true if it's a normal SNG but it's a DON and your chips are more valuable because of the flat payout structure. This structure rewards tight play early, building the biggest stack isn't important, survival and chip preservation is. He has 90 chips invested and a nice stack already for a DON, I think it's an easy fold considering the structure of these.
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Other things to consider
Is he playing a lot of tables? If so he's probably a shove bot and has a tighter range then you think here.
You're raising UTG, so I'm sure his shoving range tightens up as well.
If you perceive him as tight with say a range of AQ+, TT+ you are behind
if you add 99 and 88 you move to only slightly ahead.
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