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a guide to betting the 2012 Masters As soon as I saw where his ball was, I was hoping he would pick it up and go back to the tee. It was just an impossible situation. There was nowhere to drop it. I completely agree with you that going back would have been the prudent decision. But Phil being Phil, you just knew he would try to play it from there if he thought he had any chance to pull off a miracle. I watched him swiping at the ball in horror, having visions of him taking a 7 or an 8 on the hole, especially if the ball hit him while he was trying to hack it out of there. Going back to the tee obviously takes a big number out ... Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Apr 9th, 2012
a guide to betting the 2012 Masters Thanks all. I created this thread specifically for the casual fans who wanted to place some bets. I'm glad that a few of them appreciated it and I really wish it had worked out for them. I'm sure there are thousands of fans who watch a couple of golf tournaments a year and had never heard of Bubba until this week. Other than the 2010 PGA tournament where he lost in that playoff to Kaymer, he's done absolutely nothing in the major tournaments (I think he might have one top ten in a U.S. Open several years back). So people who only watch majors are not likely to know much about Bubba. Looking ... Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Apr 9th, 2012
a guide to betting the 2012 Masters Well my 'bet the house' pick was on the wrong lefthander. Congratulations to Bubba and to all the gamblers that had the sense to pick him. He was clearly the best golfer of the week. Louis played fantastic but needed three lucky breaks (including an albatross!) just to keep up with Bubba and it still wasn't enough. This win (and that shot on #10) will be remembered by golf fans for a long time. It was another memorable Sunday afternoon at the Masters. Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Apr 8th, 2012
a guide to betting the 2012 Masters You're welcome. It was kind of a spur of the moment write-up but I may do one for the other majors as well, if this one turns out to be successful. I really wanted Couples to shoot something like 70 or 71 yesterday so he would be in the mix too. He deserves to be there and it would have been a great story. Even though Mickelson's in perfect position, there are so many players who could win today. Anyone all the way back to four under, I believe. There are plenty of great golfers on the leaderboard who are capable of lighting it up and making lots of birdies and eagles on the back nine Sunday ... Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Apr 8th, 2012
a guide to betting the 2012 Masters No. Sometimes I read the golf threads but I never post. I'm sure he doesn't really have $4K on Phil, but around 7:00 tomorrow evening he's going to wish he did. Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Apr 7th, 2012
a guide to betting the 2012 Masters O ye of little faith! To doubt Phil at Augusta is truly insolent. He's right where he wants to be and has a good chance to win tomorrow. Enjoy your $44,000 sweat. Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Apr 7th, 2012
a guide to betting the 2012 Masters That's a fair point, but as I said earlier, pick and choose the bets that work best for you. You don't have to follow the whole program. I doubt you'd find anyone who wouldn't agree that Angel Cabrera at 125/1, Zach Johnson at 100/1, or Brandt Snedeker at 80/1 aren't bets that have tremendous value. Some gamblers who aren't golf experts might have missed that value if I hadn't pointed it out. That was really the whole purpose of my write-up, finding value. Part of the reason I shared all this info is that I worked really hard on it (spent over ninety minutes writing it up and looking up ... Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Apr 6th, 2012
a guide to betting the 2012 Masters Keegan Bradley's an outstanding player and he's really playing well this year. One reason I did not include him in my list is because he's never played the Masters. Course knowledge is a huge factor at Augusta so he'll be at a significant disadvantage to the rest of the field. However, he is good friends with Mickelson and Phil has been giving him a lot of advice on how to play the course. Keegan is serious about winning the Masters and has already done more prep work than most first-timers, getting tips not only from Phil but also from Jack Nicklaus. I expect Keegan will have a strong ... Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Mar 29th, 2012
a guide to betting the 2012 Masters Thank you. I hope the strategy works for you. The Masters is really the one tournament all year where the bettors that are knowledgeable about golf have the largest edge, due to the small size of the field and the considerable role that course knowledge plays in the outcome. For any OT'ers looking for a more affordable bet than $400, a micro stakes alternative I would recommend is $40 on Mickelson, $40 on Zach Johnson, and $20 on Snedeker. Keep in mind that you're very likely to lose your $100 when you choose this alternative because you're not betting the two best golfers (Woods and ... Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Mar 28th, 2012
a guide to betting the 2012 Masters FRED COUPLES 100/1— Don't laugh. Couples is a former champion that has played very well at Augusta in recent years (15th in 2011, 6th in 2010, 3rd in 2006) and he's hitting the ball better than he has in two decades. He just won the senior tour event yesterday. Unlike Zach Johnson, who probably won't be on the leaderboard late in the tournament, I think there's actually a decent chance Couples will be there. He's kind of an opposite pick from Zach in that I could very easily see Couples with an excellent chance to win the tournament but letting it slip away on the back nine Sunday afternoon ... Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Mar 28th, 2012
a guide to betting the 2012 Masters Hello OT, I do not post on here (or anywhere on P5's anymore), but I'm a long time lurker, particularly of any golf discussion threads. Anyway, I came up with a Masters betting guide for my friends in New England and thought I would share it with anyone in OT that's interested. I really only have two skills in life: beating $5 SNG's and winning golf bets (both on the course and off). So, here's my best effort to help you profit from this year's Masters. Use the guide as you wish, picking and choosing your bets or applying the full program. I believe that if you follow these guidelines you'll ... Posted in: Off Topic	Albatross77 Mar 28th, 2012
Blind on Blind Deep in 5quad...Is this a Fold I call quickly and I'm pretty happy about it. I guess I'm the only one. The people who said fold, are you also tossing stuff like QT, K8, etc.' You only have 15 BB's and the structure in the 5 quad is super fast/poor. Without any reads, I would naturally assume the small blind is shoving any two cards here. One of those cards might even be a deuce! I mean, the thought that you can win massive field tournaments without going to showdown for your entire stack once in awhile with some ugly hands is sort of naive in my opinion. Then again, I haven't won anything in many months so I doubt what I ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Mar 2nd, 2011
I just folde AK pre flop with 15bbs. Flame away! I definitely think AK is a fold in this spot. The best you can hope for when getting your chips in the middle is that the other two guys who've committed their chips also have AK. Or in an absolute dream scenario, one AK, and one AQ, but that's pretty unlikely. I agree with andres that the cold four bet for one third of the stack from a competent player is almost always KK+. If someone actually has QQ, you're nowhere near 43% to take the pot anyway, because all the people spazzing out in front of you are likely to hold at least one ace or one king. Has no one even mentioned the simple fact ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Oct 4th, 2010
Tough Spot with AJ in Nightly $70k It's good that you had a plan and took multiple scenarios into account. What were you going to do if the original limper shoved on you' I'm guessing you were folding. So... if you were folding to every player at the table other than the one who ended up shoving on you, I pretty much see your raise with AJ in this spot basically as a pure bluff. You might as well be pumping 2-3 offsuit up to 1600. It's not like if you get a couple of flat-callers and your A comes you can feel all that good about your spot anyway. I understand your desire to get a decent stack before the bubble, and that's a ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Sep 7th, 2010
KK late-ish in $11. Advice needed please. Check river and fold to any reasonably sized bet. All you're beating at that point is a bluff. There is no hand that is betting for value in that spot which is trailing a pair of kings. Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Sep 7th, 2010
Just WON!!!!!!! Well played sir, well played. Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Sep 7th, 2010
Tough Spot with AJ in Nightly $70k I'm not exactly sure what you were trying to accomplish in this hand. Did you have a specific plan in mind, or did you look down at AJ and decide to raise' As played, I guess you re-raise all-in and hope to suck out. You're almost always up against AK or a premium pair, but there are too many chips in the pot to be folding it now. There are already enough tough spots in any given tournament, so try not to create more for yourself! Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Sep 7th, 2010
Does Anyone Find a Fold Button Here? Sitting This Deep? Yes, I find the fold button. I find it pre-flop. I find it post-flop. I'd be in such a hurry to fold top two here after he keeps jamming me with re-raises that it's not even funny. No way I'm sticking in over 250 BB's on this board. Perhaps that makes me a nit' To show how nitty I am, if I was the guy with 33 I would certainly have considered folding. But then again, it's the 20c, so I'd probably just make the crying call with bottom set and hope my opponent was spazzing with some sort of two pair combo or a double draw like 5-4 of diamonds. Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Aug 30th, 2010
Deep in $3r, AK facing Raise and 3 Bet 5% is a number I pulled out of my ass. I really have never seen a 3b fold of this nature, but I suppose it happens, so I did not want to sound like an arrogant blowhard and say he's calling 100% of the time, thus I came up with the mythical 5%. I suppose people mis-click 1% of the time, so we all know he's folding to our shove at least some number of times greater than zero. As for the villain's 3b range, I think you may have misunderstood what I was trying to say. Given the amount he raised, he has chosen a hand that he is always 3b calling with, so while his usual 3b range in this spot ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Jul 13th, 2010
Deep in $3r, AK facing Raise and 3 Bet I've been to the final couple tables of the $3r many times (obv. brag) so I'm very capable of appropriately ranging this type of opponent. He has JJ+ and AK. How sure am I of this' At least 90% sure. If I were at the table and didn't just have the hand history I might even be able to pick up a timing tell which could make me even more confident. Timing tells are always sketchy because everyone's multi-tabling, but given that the guy has already been in this tournament 8+ hours, he probably doesn't have many tables open at this point and is pretty focused on the task at hand. Anyway, we ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Jul 12th, 2010
Deep in $3r, AK facing Raise and 3 Bet Please define "a lot" for me. I've been at final tables with you before and know you're an outstanding player, but this comment is absurd. The guy three bet to 78K; he's always calling. If I had to estimate how often he would fold it would be less than 5% of the time. Even in the $3r, where people make some mind-blowing folds, he's never ever folding given his bet-sizing. If he had three bet to 50K, your comment might make a little sense and I would consider shoving, but this guy is serious about the hand. He is absolutely, positively not folding, so the comment that he's folding "a lot" must ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Jul 12th, 2010
Deep in $3r, AK facing Raise and 3 Bet I strongly disagree with the advice in this thread. AK is a clear fold here and I wouldn't think twice about it. I've been deep in the $3r plenty of times and I can assure you that when people represent that they have it at this stage of the tourney, they have it. There's very little fancy play going on, and with such an enormous three bet, it makes the possibility of the guy actually making a move even more remote. I would range him JJ+ and AK. The possibility of him holding AQ is obviously greater than zero, but it's so remote that I wouldn't even include it in the range. If he sometimes ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Jul 12th, 2010
Re:My story so far in 2010 (with graphs etc) I probably fit this description, though I'm more of a lowstakes grinder with some midstakes tourneys ($55, $22c, etc.) mixed into my schedule. I haven't had the start to 2010 that I've wanted, but my goals are similar to yours and I plan on achieving them. I'm trying to focus more on hours logged as a primary goal (looking for 2000 hours this year) and then hoping the money aspect takes care of itself in the long run. Best of luck to you sir. We'll probably run into each other at the tables at some point, hopefully at a final table. Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 May 21st, 2010
Re:why most people don't play huge minefield donkaments Not to be harsh, but there is nothing remotely sick about this. It happens ALL THE TIME. If you don't readjust your attitude then massive field MTT's aren't for you. It's as simple as that. For every winner of every huge field tournament, there are literally 20 or more players involved in the endgame who can say "Oh, if only this flip had gone my way, or I didn't get two outed, or he didn't catch his flush on the river, etc. etc." You get the idea. I've won maybe five or six of these micro field donkaments with 2000+ players (not so subtle brag). They ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 May 6th, 2010
Re:Folding AA pre in a Satty Given that you're second in chips on the bubble of a satty that pays out six seats, I'm almost certain the optimal play would be to just check your option in the big blind and fold to any bet by the villain on the flop, turn, or river. SOMEONE is going to bust before you. I don't know who, and I don't know when, but if you don't voluntarily put any chips into the pot for the rest of the satellite, there's at least a 95% chance you'll get your seat, which is better odds than your AA holding up against a random hand. All that being said, I probably would have made ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Apr 30th, 2010
Re:Sunday Million Final Table Hand(Edit with Turn) The way you decided to play the hand, I would say it's a fold on the river. There's nothing you really beat that's betting for value here, except maybe a T9 suited. As others have said, I like a smallish raise on the flop. Definitely leave enough in your stack to give the villain the illusion of fold equity. He could decide to make a re-raise with KQ or Q9 thinking you won't call off your stack to him without a ten. Congrats on making the final table. Many of us would love to have the same opportunity some day. Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Apr 29th, 2010
Re:Most obvious collusion I've seen in six years of poker And to my fellow Americans, I don't mean to imply that it would be obnoxious to correct marroca5 on this issue (I assume he's happy to have learned something today that he didn't know before). It's more that when we KNOW we're right about something, we tend to EDUCATE others instead of perhaps trying to learn a thing or two ourselves. Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Apr 29th, 2010
Re:Most obvious collusion I've seen in six years of poker This thread has gotten decidedly away from anything poker-related but I'm going to come to marroca5's aid before a dozen obnoxious American P5'ers point out to him that North America is, in fact, most definitely a continent, and Colombia is NOT a member of said continent. My understanding is that many Latin American countries do not separate North and South America. They consider "America" to be one continent. I don't know the reason for rejecting this distinction when grouping the continents; perhaps a Latin American P5'er could enlighten me. I'm always ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Apr 29th, 2010
Re:KK hand from 10(1r1a) vs shanetrane22. Getting 50% of my chips in with KK and then deciding I might as well fold it because my opponent likes his hand is a style of poker that I'm honestly not familiar with. --Are you scared of the phantom ace that never appeared' --Or perhaps you thought you were bluff-raising his continuation bet and then got caught' --Or maybe you were trapping pre, but oh my goodness! a coordinated board flopped, how scary! Let me see where I stand with a big raise... oops, I stand in a not so good place! I dunno what goes through these ultra-cerebral players' heads sometimes, to be honest. I play ... Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Apr 27th, 2010
Re:Too Nitty? Yikes, that's a confusing spot. If he honestly has a set or QJ I just can't see him trying to scare out the smaller stacks, especially when he wasn't the pre-flop raiser. I honestly believe he has KQ, KJ, QT, or JT most of the time. Some sort of pair with a gut shot. I think calling with AK here is the play, but it's probably pretty close, and I'm sure every once in awhile your call will leave you drawing dead unfortunately. Posted in: Poker Discussion	Albatross77 Apr 27th, 2010

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